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Sunshine (she/her) @lemmy.ca

3mo ago

Can Russia sustain its war effort as ruble plummets, inflation soars?

kyivindependent.com Can Russia sustain its war effort as ruble plummets, inflation soars?

With the purchasing power of the Russian ruble hitting the lowest point since March 2022, the economic toll of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine becomes glaring. Russia's expanding spending on the war has fueled inflation, prompting Russia's Central Bank to hike its interest rate to the highest le...

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Rapidcreek @lemmy.world

3mo ago

Can Russia sustain its war effort as ruble plummets, inflation soars?

kyivindependent.com /will-russias-economic-problems-make-its-war-unsustainable/

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13 comments

They only need to sustain the war till Jan 20.
After that, Putin commands the US military.
- I don’t think so. Ukraine has been gearing up its domestic arms industry all war long. They may suffer a big setback if the US withdraws all support but I think Europe has shown a lot of indications that they will step up. Ukraine is digging in for the long war.
  I also think it’s possible that Trump may get impatient with Putin if he’s unwilling to compromise (and all indications are that he will). Furthermore, the domestic problems that drove Putin to invade in the first place have not gone away. If anything, they’re worse than ever. If Russia finds itself without a war then domestic disputes between different factions will begin to heat up again.
  
  I hope they can sustain, but US has been provided alot of intelligence support right? Not sure how well that can be replaced.
- While bitch boy America is set to bend over for the aggressor, NATO and EU have made efforts to trump proof the support. Also Trump is too stupid to work against things methodically, he is a tool for evil for sure but he isnt exactly productive - couldnt even gut healthcare when he held all the power. He can stop the US support but other than that he can't really do kuch to encourage others to.
  Also I just voted in Ireland and left Sinn Fein off my ballot for calling for the US to stop arms support to Ukraine.
  
  Good on you for leaving Sinn Fein off - I did too. They got a few rusty pistols from the Eastern Bloc back in the seventies and eighties and now they are apologists for Mother Russia whenever the music stops.

I would love to see the ruble continue to slide but I think a lot of the current weakness is Israel reducing tension in the Middle East, making lower oil prices more likely. Russia lives and dies on oil production at this point. We need to crash the price of oil and sustain it at a low point to kill the Russian currency.
- It's often been said that russia is a gas station masquerading as a country.
  
  A gas station operated by gangsters masquerading as a country.
- Did everything in Israel affect oil prices that much? Anecdotally I don't remember fuel prices shifting significantly, and looking at data it doesn't look like there was much of a response. Israel and its immediate surroundings aren't the big oil producers of the region. Those are all on the other side of the Arabian peninsula. The skirmish with Iran is the closest the whole situation has come to actually touching the oil countries, I think.
  
  I think it is because this signals there will be no more weapon launches to/from Iran. Iranian oil infrastructure would be on the short list of additional targets. Plus there's always the risk of Iran closing the Persian Gulf.

13 comments