When your morning coffee tastes extra good (ruble at 108)
When your morning coffee tastes extra good (ruble at 108)
I think I can say that the ruble is in free fall
33 comments
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Looks like it. Russia's economy is collpasing right now. I just hope the Saudis loose their shit and start lowering the oil price. They are actually pissed at the Russians for not actually lowering production as agreed in OPEC+. That would kill the Russian economy.
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Don't count your chickens before they hatch, or how does that idiom go?
Let's see if the current prediction around stagflation in the russian economy plays out (I very much hope it comes true).
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Currently stagflation is not a prediction, it's already clearly happening.
And it's the bad kind of stagflation, where production isn't even stagnant but declining.
We know for sure this is already happening in a big way in the food sector for major household items like eggs, butter, sugar and potatoes. With price hikes up to 70%, while the inflation is claimed to be "only" about 8%, which is twice the target of the Russian central bank. But in reality it's probably way more. -
That was my initial feeling when it broke through the 100 barrier (against Putins orders) and went all the way to 103.
Last week lol.
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Ruble about to experience weightlessness
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That's an amazing metaphor, it's a very clever way to say the Russian Central bank is losing their grip, and somehow it's kind of hilarious, imagining the Ruble as a free floating balloon out of control. 😋 👍
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Eli5: What are the consequences for the Russian government if this trend continues and they can't stop it?
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Didn't you hear? Prominent Lemmy propagandists have assured us numerous times the sanctions aren't working and the Russian economy is actually booming!
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The ultra thin layer of relevant government will always be fine, they are encrusted in luxury and will never face any troubles, like the NK rulers and other dictators.
The people in ruzzia are fucked, their economy will be toast, and this will make this shitty war more and more unbearable.
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113 now
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33 comments
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/USD-RUB
109.5 now(11:40 CET) with a clear upwards trajectory.
The trajectory points to it passing 110 soon maybe even 111 by the end of day, if the Russian central bank doesn't do something to intervene.
Looking at the 6 month graph, shows more clearly that it's really bad:
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/USD-RUB?window=6M
Going from 85 early August to about 110 now is a decline in value of 30% in 4 months. And from November 11 to today it's from 96 to 110, 14% in just over 2 weeks! It seems the Russian economy is imploding now.
PS:
Just to clarify: The graph going up means you get more Rubles for 1 US dollar. Meaning the value of the Russian Ruble is going down.
Edit:
12:30 CET Passed 110, pretty much as expected, which is why I already used that value in my calculations before it actually happened. 😋
13:00 WTF! from 110 to 111 in just ½ an hour, it's now declined 5% in a single day! And is still dropping!!
13:30 112.4 now! Another half hour another point!! I suspect the Central bank will respond to this soon. But it already seemed like they tried to support the Ruble yesterday, so maybe their reserves are running dry, so they can't?
14:10 114.5 Wow after seeming somewhat stable for almost half an hour, the crazy took it up an extra notch with 2 points in about 10 minutres, the decline for the day is now 8.5% !!
18:00 It seems to have stabilized around 113, The Russian central bank has made a public statement about halting purchase of foreign currency until 2025. I would imagine that would make foreign trade difficult? Early estimates are that the decline of the will cause inflation to increase from 8.5% to 10%.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/11/27/russian-central-bank-halts-currency-buying-until-2025-as-ruble-slides-a87147
I love how we can (almost) use percentage and points interchangeably today 😁
Aaaand it's at 110 !
Even if it jumps back to 108 it would still be crazy bad. But who would invest like really invest not try to prop up the value artificially, in this train wreck? And it looks like the central bank have already played their cards ...
This is insane, 111 now, a drop of more than 5% in a single day!
113 RN (27%/6 mo)
Edit: Links aren’t working at the moment. Did Google remove the chart [at Russia’s behest]?
You don't have to post the image of the graph I linked to myself.
The 30% I stated is from August to when the rate was 110 today.
Edit: Both links I posted work fine here.
The Rubel is not freely traded. The Central Bank sets the exchange rates.
EDIT: exchange rate not interest rates. Shit.
That's how it is for all currencies.