US govt hiding top hurricane forecast model sparks outrage
US govt hiding top hurricane forecast model sparks outrage
Taxpayer-funded data locked behind insurance firm's paywall
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) cannot reveal weather forecasts from a particularly accurate hurricane prediction model to the public that pays for the American government agency – because of a deal with a private insurance risk firm.
The model at issue is called the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA). In 2023, it was deemed in a National Hurricane Center (NHC) report [PDF] to be one of the two "best performers," the other being a model called IVCN (Intensity Variable Consensus).
2020 contract between NOAA and RenaissanceRe Risk Sciences, disclosed in response to a Freedom of Information Act request by The Washington Post, requires NOAA to keep HCCA forecasts – which incorporate a proprietary technique from RenaissanceRe – secret for five years.
Sorry, what a shit, rage bait article is this?
… it was deemed in a National Hurricane Center (NHC) report [PDF] to be one of the two "best performers," the other being a model called IVCN (Intensity Variable Consensus).
OK, what about IVCN? Is this available? We can assume it is as is not mentioned any more in the article. Also skimming the report it’s not like the other reports are wildly inaccurate/unusable.
Asked whether the NOAA deal affected the release of information about Hurricane Helene, Buchanan said, "HCCA is one of many computer models that forecasters use at the National Hurricane Center. NHC forecasters use a variety of model guidance, observations, and expert knowledge to develop the best and most consistent forecast, along with watches, warnings and other hazard information for use by the emergency management community, the public, and other core partners and decision makers."
So the outrage is hot air over nothing. Got it.
Can we please stop with the privitization? It's absolutely not been working out very well for the people.
But it makes so much money for corporations! Tax payer money is used for research and everything else that costs money, then we get a private company to just 'commercialise' it! Tax payers take on all the risk and investment, profits go straight to shareholders.
Muwahahahaha!!! - Our corporate overlords, probably
This is actually the opposite of privatization. The government is using private technology that they will be able to make public in 5 years.
they will be able to make public in 5 years.
That's a bit late for a weather forecast.
It worked in high growth economy 50-70', and boomers are stuck there.
It really didn't even work then, those at the time just offloaded the real cost of their policies to the contemporary poor and current entirety of the population.
A deal penned under the Trump administration because of course it was. Government sold to the highest bidder.
I was wondering why this felt so gross
This may well cost people their lives
People?
Personhood doesn't begin until $1M. The poor's aren't people
They can't reveal the model itself for 5 years but can obviously give the resulting forecast from it, so I don't really see the big deal here. It'd be nice if it was freely available, but it's not like the average person can use it without lots of knowledge and scientific equipment of their own and 5 years isn't very long.
They don't want average joe to get out ahead of the corporations. Could be bad for business!
If true, this is fucked.
It's not even close to the level bullshit that has gov't funding drug research, and then getting gouged by drug companies. That doesn't make it right. I hate this on principle, but on a pragmatic level I doubt the difference from the many current models is noticeable other than on a trivial statistical level. That said, it does really piss me off as a matter of principle.