Are Election Polls Accurate Indicators or Poor Predictors?
Are Election Polls Accurate Indicators or Poor Predictors?
Experts debate whether election polls are an accurate tool for forecasting elections or just a snapshot of current trends.
The number one problem with polling is who they survey.
Most polls will tell you "We surveyed xxx number of likely voters..."
(Record scratch)
Wait a second... How are you defining "likely"?
That wiggle room gives pollsters the ability to cherry pick their audience and you often have to dig into how they define "likely."
Registered to vote? High enthusiasm? Voted in the past two elections?
What is likely for one poll may not be likely for other polls.
That's one of the reasons polling was off in 2016. "Voted in the last 2 elections", well, Trump drew out people who hadn't voted. Because they hadn't voted they weren't counted as "likely."
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/23/us/elections/registered-voters-vs-likely-voters.html
My thinking exactly as well.
It's spin if they are not adjusting how and who they poll as technology advances and as new generations enter the voting pool.
If they're only polling people who pick up an unknown phone call, they're going to get mainly boomers and geriatrics. Younger generations in general screen their phone calls and don't answer unknown numbers, and, let's face it, phone calls are a terrible engagement mechanism anymore.
I'm a xennial and I have Google's call screening feature - I never answer unknown numbers, and look closely at the caller's intentions even before accepting any calls. I would love to participate in this unicorn that is a presidential poll, but I'm not doing it through an unsolicited phone call.
That's why I think the polls are off now. The number of 18-30 year olds registrations is off the charts in previous years and they are not counted as likely voters.
Young women are going to be key to this election I think. They are pissed off and are chomping at the bit to vote.
Yeah, in 2016 and 2020 polls underestimated Trump voters. Pollsters know he has voters who aren’t reflected in polls, and they’re consciously trying to account for it.
But I’m hopeful that this year it’s the opposite, that polls are underestimating Harris support. Young voters, or even women in conservative families who say they’re voting for Trump, but deep down want Harris to win.
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