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NZ NPC Round 8

Table:

Pos. Team P W B PTS
1 Wellington 8 7 7 35
2 Tasman 7 7 4 32
3 Taranaki 8 6 6 30
4 BoP 8 5 8 28
5 Hawke's Bay 8 5 7 27
6 Canterbury 8 5 5 25
7 Waikato 8 4 7 23
8 Counties-Manukau 8 3 6 18
9 North Harbour 8 2 10 18
10 Auckland 7 3 5 17
11 Otago 8 3 4 16
12 Northland 8 2 5 13
13 Southland 8 2 4 12
14 Manawatū 8 1 3 7

Fixtures: 27/09:

  • Counties-Manukau v Wellington

28/09:

  • BoP v Northland
  • Hawke's Bay v Auckland
  • Otago v Tasman

29/09:

  • North Harbour v Canterbury
  • Southland v Waikato
  • Taranaki v Manawatū

2/10:

  • Tasman v Auckland

Predictions:

  • Wellington 15+
  • BoP 21+
  • Hawke's Bay 1-1
  • Tasman 12+
  • North Harbour 6-
  • Waikato 12+
  • Taranaki 50+

1 - I don't know if Folau Fakatava is back from injury yet or not; he's been out the last two games and without him as a 2nd playmaker my Magpies have been dreadful. No ability to relieve pressure means two massive hidings in a row. This is a prediction from the heart, not the head :)

Notes:

Its now the second to last round, and mathematically probably only Manawatū are definitively outside of the top 8, but I think we can assume that Northland and Southland are also no chance given at best they can only be expecting to win 1/2.

Otago are also only likely to win 1 more match so there's the 4 wooden spooners confirmed and we only need to pick two more teams to stay or slip out of the top 8.

Auckland have had a terrible season, but have 3 games in hand, so could pick up another 15 points, except they are playing Hawke's Bay, Tasman & BoP so are only likely to win 1, they should finish somewhere around 24 points.

North Harbour could beat Canterbury, and should beat Southland so are potentially looking at a points upside of 6-10 points, but Counties-Manukau have a guaranteed win against Manawatū so for Harbour to make it they really need to push for a win against the Rams.

Waikato should pick up another 4-5 points against Southland, even if they lose to Canterbury the following week so are probably safe.

So, weirdly the two other teams that are at some risk are Hawke's Bay & Canterbury, purely because neither of their next two games are guaranteed wins. The Rams are probably more likely to get a win given the Magpies woeful form since losing the Shield, but i'd say both of them are likely safe - even if the 'pies get the job done with bonus points rather than wins.

As for the top of the table, well with a game in hand, the high spending Tasman Makos are most likely to take 1st place again, followed by Wellington. Taranaki & BoP will both get wins this round, so if Auckland continue to suck and Tasman continue to be good, BoP will secure 3rd in the final game of the round-robin ahead of the playoffs.

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