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AFC West Playoff Scenarios for Week 15

via: https://nflplayoffscenarios.com/

If KC wins out the worst possible seed is: 3

LV is knocked out of AFC West title contention with:

  • LV loss + KC win/tie OR
  • LV loss + DEN win OR
  • LV tie + KC win

LV is eliminated from playoff contention with:

  • LV loss + KC win/tie + An absurd set of permutations OR
  • LV loss + DEN win + An absurd set of permuations

LAC is knocked out of AFC West title contention with:

  • LAC loss + KC win/tie OR
  • LAC loss + DEN win OR
  • LAC tie + KC win

LAC is eliminated from playoff contention with:

  • LAC loss + KC win/tie + An absurd set of permutations OR
  • LAC loss + DENDEN win + An absurd set of permuations

Results from 1 million simulations with home win/away win/tie all equally likely:

Team 1 seed 2 seed 3 seed 4 seed 5 seed 6 seed 7 seed Miss Playoffs
KC 3% 19% 31% 29% 2% 3% 4% 9%
DEN <1% 1% 5% 11% 4% 8% 11% 60%
LAC 0% <1% <1% 1% <1% <1% <1% 99%
LV 0% <1% <1% 1% <1% <1% <1% 99%
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