‘People should be making their contingency plans, like, right away’: America’s leading forecaster on the chances of a Trump win
‘People should be making their contingency plans, like, right away’: America’s leading forecaster on the chances of a Trump win
Nate Silver’s election model is once again being pored over by millions of anxious voters. The gambler turned statistician talks about the race for White House, the risk-takers redefining our culture, and the probability of God
Just how useful is a forecast in a knife-edge election like this one, anyway? Even the insight that it could go either way is useful, Silver argues. “One potential advantage of having a forecast that says … it’s 50/50, is that people should be making their contingency plans, like, right away. It doesn’t mean you need [to stockpile] ammo and peanut butter” – that giggle again – “but it means, you know: what’s your strategy to protect American institutions in the event of a Trump second term? Or, in 2028 [or] 2032, a Trump-like Republican who maybe is more effective than Trump? If I were a liberal donor, for example, I would want to begin funding now … to protect institutions in that eventuality, instead of giving another $100,000 to Kamala Harris, who has more money than she needs.”
And while he fears a Trump win – “There were a lot of guardrails in place last time that prevented complete and utter disaster, but those guardrails have been weakened, right?” – he warns against painting it as an existential threat to democracy, at least as a political strategy. “The notion of basically holding voters hostage in that sense is very unappealing … Biden was like: ‘OK, sure, I may be running for president until I’m 86 and can barely form a complete sentence, but if you don’t vote for me, the country gets it’ – that’s a very unappealing message to swing voters … whereas Harris brings more joyfulness and is obviously a very talented woman”. He worries, though, that she has “retained too many of the Biden people who thought it was a good idea to keep running [him]. I guess she kind of had to.”
That somebody like Trump has a chance in hell of winning the election again is kind of proof enough that this country is already lost.
Nate Silver isn't worth listening to.
That being said, I have my contingency plans laid out.
There's also this:
instead of giving another $100,000 to Kamala Harris, who has more money than she needs.
Nate Silver knows how elections work. He knows there is no such thing as more money than you need in a presidential campaign. That's an astoundingly dishonest thing to say from someone like him.
I'll never trust that degenerate grifter anyways. When I heard he was so cocksure of his stats knowledge that he
lostspent 10k a day on gambling, that's all I needed to never listen to him again.At the end of the day, his prognostications are a very expensive coin flip.
Edit: see the strikethrough above.
Silver is using poll numbers from before the debate. It's not worthless, but it's outdated information.
But I want Democrats feeling the pressure and vote like Democracy depends on it, so I'm happy if he keeps fluffing that pillow.
His model actually accounts for whether polls were taken before or after an event, and raises and lowers their impact and error margin based on that. Right up to the debate, his model was giving Kamala a <30% chance and it's only the inclusion of new polls since the debate that have moved her to 50%.
Friendly reminder for my trans bros and sisters, please get your passport squared away and start hoarding HRT in case shit hits the fan.
LOL.
"Guy on book tour says something clickable!"
Who cares.
Contingency plans. Yeah. Sure. I don't think there are any that most of us can make. There aren't any countries I could move to that would be any better I don't think. I'm too old, I don't have degrees, my only job qualifications aren't particularly in demand because the training for them is fast, and the only family connection to citizenship elsewhere I had is insufficient because it's too many generations removed from me.
I suspect the cast majority of people who would be even worse off than me under another Trump/Republican administration are in just as bad if not worse a position.
As a green card holder I do have the option of going "home" - except I own a house, have a wife, friends, a job, a car, a phone - all with payments still left on them (especially the wife waka waka waka) - obviously I'll leave if I'm literally in danger, but if I'm not and it's just that I don't like the president and it negatively affects geopolitics somewhat, on a personal level, leaving the country would be disastrous for me.
At least go and buy a gun, so when we inevitably hunt for billionaires to cannibalize together, you can at least contribute something, for fuck sake.
I'm glad I'm a dual citizen, but I'm not sure how easily I'll get my wife over to the UK.
This is exactly my situation. My kids and I could move over there easily and in an instant, legally. But I'm not sure what the process is for my wife.
Also, there's more to moving to another country than just the legality (and that aspect alone is insurmountable for many unsuspecting people). You're talking about leaving/moving/selling all your belongings, vehicle(s), possibly also a home. And going through the whole process of getting a new job, new schools, cultural shock for kids. And transferring money over, setting up be accounts, etc. And dealing with starting from scratch with credit scores and such. And all that would involve moving back to a country that has its own pretty profound struggles right now. It's a massive headache. But it's something we are definitely considering.
I know, it's a really big problem. But my daughter is queer, so if Trump wins, she and I are getting out before Trump takes office. We'll just have to figure out the rest after that. Thankfully, I have friends and family over there who would be able to help.
My prediction is that if Trump does win, there will be a civil war within the next 4-10 years. Each side will get backing from separate national groups. Except middle eastern countries (with the exceptional of Israel). They'll probably just sit back and watch the US burn. And staying in that state-of-mind, that would have the potential to spark WWIII.
Except middle eastern countries (with the exceptional of Israel). They'll probably just sit back and watch the US burn.
Hope they're cool having an awful lot less money then, the US is one of the main powers propping up the oil industry out there. We stop buying and the market collapses. It's not like Russia is going to step in to buy the surplus, and I doubt China would want to even if they probably can afford it.Edit: Wow, I am completely wrong as evidenced by people below, I admit I did not look this up before speaking about it. That's my mistake.
All they have to do is sit and wait. The Middle East still produce around 50% of the world's oil. If those countries have proven anything, it's that they're smart and resilient. Someone somewhere is going to want what they have and they could sell it for whatever cost they see fit. All they would have to do is keep their heads down and wait
My fear is there will be some form of civil war either way, but it will be much much worse if he wins
You can't escape America's influence and policy no matter where you go.
That's for the people who have the means.
I’m fucking broke. Can’t afford to move. Can barely afford rent. I get to deal with it as best I can.