Ukraine's Kursk Gambit: The End of Putin, or Zelensky?
Ukraine's Kursk Gambit: The End of Putin, or Zelensky?
It is difficult not to sympathize with Zelensky's desperation in a war that is indeed going badly. However, at some point, cabinet reshuffles and resignations will not suffice to deflect responsibility for decisions that have made it even worse.
Zelensky's defenders trying to paint it as a success because, however heavy Ukraine's losses, they are justified since Russia's were even heavier.
The entire conflict as seen by the west described in one sentence.
"Yes we turned the country into a mass prison and hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians died or got wounded - but more Russians died so it's a success".
I mean its gruesome but thats how a war of atrition works and how you win it, who controls one square kilometer more or less is quite irrelevant as that can change fast once one side collapses.
Agreed. It makes sense that if you live in the West that you are going to get Western propaganda. What was a bit more surprising was the wall-to-wall level of psy-op grade propaganda coming from the Americans and of some of the other countries, like the Germans.
The reductionist mindset of a multi-layered, regional geopolitical situation was reduced to we, the Americans.NATO = the white-wearing good guys, Russians = bad guys.
I mean, it is not like this has not been done before and from all sides. Yet the level in which any valid criticism of what is essentially an exercise in NATO expansionism, and the repercussions of that push, which ends with the Ukrainians being used a cannon fodder as a way to weaken the Russian military is a prime example of a Machiavellian strategy, in my opinion.
Ukraine will be the one to pay the highest price, just like the Cubans have, in the inverse case, since the Cuban missile crisis. I was looking at a demographic chart of Ukraine and their population has taken a huge blow, either due to deaths or people fleeing the country. Now, who do you think is going to the all the contracts to rebuild everything back up, later on?
Russia launched a large scale invasion in a neighbouring country, making it pretty clear they are in the wrong. Furthermore, as someone who lives in a European country, I hope my country keeps supporting Ukraine. At least as European countries we need to be one block against the aggressor. As the US is an important ally with a lot of military capability, I hope they keep following us in our support for Ukraine.
War is raging across the planet in 2024. What the fuck humanity. We could be living in a golden age.
Honestly Putin / Russia is going to be victorious. The only way to prevent that is direct Western intervention and that shouldn't happen as it would escalate.
Better to lose a country to Russia than the world for everyone.
The diversion is more significant than the article makes it out to be.
On face value, Kursk region isn't that important to Moscow and they've got the strategic points like the nuclear plant on lock. However it's hard to deny the value of the morale boost that Ukraine desperately needed, even as it has risks as with anything.
The choice for Ukraine is to keep on the defensive, slowly losing its ground, or the same thing happens but Putin is humiliated on the world stage by Ukraine, taking Russian military high command by surprise whether it forces their hand or not.
The Kursk incursion does not change losses caused by poor military coordination present from Ukrainian and Russian command structures.
There is zero chance of this incursion making it anywhere close to the nuclear plant. In fact, at this point even pro Ukrainian maps are showing that it's Russia that's on the offensive in Kursk. I also have no idea what morale boost you're talking about as this stunt pulled valuable troops and machinery from the collapsing front in Donbas. Here's what CNN reported just a couple of days ago https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/08/europe/ukraine-military-morale-desertion-intl-cmd/index.html
Two and half years of Russia’s grinding offensive have decimated many Ukrainian units. Reinforcements are few and far between, leaving some soldiers exhausted and demoralized. The situation is particularly dire among infantry units near Pokrovsk and elsewhere on the eastern front line, where Ukraine is struggling to stop Russia’s creeping advances.
As a battalion commander, Dima was in charge of around 800 men who fought in some of the fiercest, bloodiest battles of the war – most recently near Pokrovsk, the strategic eastern town that is now on the brink of falling to Russia.
But with most of his troops now dead or severely injured, Dima decided he’d had enough. He quit and took another job with the military – in an office in Kyiv.
Here's what The Economist reports https://archive.is/KrBmX
Yury, a soldier attached to the 59th brigade based near Ukrainsk, says Ukrainian losses have been significant. A reinforcement of inexperienced infantrymen sent from Ukraine’s 71st brigade were wiped out. “Over three days, 100 became zero. Some ran, some fell.”
The Russians are still focused on control of the roads leading to Pokrovsk. “We have been fighting with our last guard, and have thrown our logistics guys into the trenches.”
“Physicist”, a tank commander with the 68th, says the Russian air force and artillery can react almost in real time; anything that moves and is not protected is destroyed. His tank drivers consequently now mostly work as static artillery units, operating from closed positions, and much farther back.
This has been a gift for Russia because now Ukrainian troops are out in the open where Ukraine is taking much heavier losses than they did while they were dug in. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/08/17/out-in-the-open-and-on-the-move-in-russias-kursk-oblast-ukrainian-forces-are-vulnerable-and-losing-lots-of-armored-vehicles/
This also extended the front for Ukraine complicating their logistics situation. The worst part from Ukrainian perspective is that they can't pull troops back because it will be admitting the failure of the gambit. So, now they're stuck feeding men and machines into a battle that has zero long term value while they lose important strategic areas around Pokrovsk.
What's likely to happen in the near future is that Ukraine will lose Pokrovsk which is a key logistics hub through which southern forces are supplied by rail. Once that's lost there's no good way to move supplies or reinforcements south meaning that the group of forces there will be completely cut off. Kursk greatly accelerated this process.
The diversion is more significant than the article makes it out to be.
What diversion? Russia hasn't had to slow down it's advances in other regions at all, in fact in some cases Russia has made faster gains, because Ukraine diverted its own best troops...
On face value, Kursk region isn't that important to Moscow and they've got the strategic points like the nuclear plant on lock. However it's hard to deny the value of the morale boost that Ukraine desperately needed,
It's only a morale boost to westerners observing the news as if it's a game. It doesn't help the real world situation for Ukraine or Ukrainians. That's what this was for, to signal boost to the west.
The Kursk incursion does not change losses caused by poor military coordination present from Ukrainian and Russian command structures.
No, it's an example of said poor military coordination present in the Ukrainian command structure...
to signal boost to the west.
Yes it does that too.
From my understanding the losses occurred mainly from miscommunications between one group sent in to relieve another, or drone and air units with jammer units and that kind of thing. Macroscopic strategy decisions such as the Kursk incursion are not related to that. Clearly it was planned well as intelligence kept it under wraps until its execution. The execution of the defense was poorer on the eastern front such as intergroup communication problems, inadequately prepared defense lines and so on.