Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 7 points in new poll
Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 7 points in new poll
The only polls that matter are ones where physical votes are cast. Vote!
For the election itself, yes. But we’re likely to have major issues after the election if most of Trump’s supporters don’t believe he lost, and polls like this are critical for getting them to accept that.
I was hanging out with a group of conservative dudes last night. They are convinced that Trump is going to win and the Democrats are going to refuse to certify the election, which will result in a civil war.
I really hope that Harris beats his ass so badly that her victory is undeniable. Even then, I'm worried they'll see that as further proof that the election was stolen. Having media bubbles is incredibly dangerous to our democracy.
Maybe not. The GOP is losing enthusiasm. They'll still vote for Trump, but it takes more than that to be willing to do violence in the man's name.
Are there really people that think "She's doing so well on the polls! I guess I don't need to vote"? I feel like if you're paying any attention to polls, you're the kind of person who's already going to vote. The kind of people you need to reach are ones that don't care about politics.
As usual, national polls mean nothing since we don't have national elections.
But let's see where it stands in the states that count, all of these numbers are from before the DNC and Kennedy dropping out, so we'll need a re-run in a week or two. I'm also adding some states people have been talking about.
Arizona: Toss up. Tie, Trump +1 +2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/Nevada: Harris +6, +8, +10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/New Mexico: Harris +8, +9
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/Texas: Trump +5, +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/texas/Georgia: Trump +1, +4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/Florida: Trump +5, +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/florida/North Carolina: Toss up. Tie, Harris +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/Virginia: Harris +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/virginia/Pennsylvania: Toss up. Harris +1, +2, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/Michigan: Harris +6, +7, +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/Wisconsin: Harris +6, +7, +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/Minnesota: Harris +5, +7, +10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/Huge shifts in Nevada, New Mexico, Michigan and Wisconsin which, under Biden, were a loss to Trump and shortly before the official shift were still barely Trump.
Trump is up in Texas, but only +5 or +6 which is consistent with the +6 win in 2020 and +9 in 2016.
Florida and Georgia are not the toss up states people are making them out to be.
The Muslim Pro-Gaza vote has had 0 impact in Michigan. Still Harris' race to lose there.
Overall, this is the best showing for the Democrats so far this year, let's plot it on the map:
Of the three toss up states, a win in either PA or NC puts Harris over the top. Arizona does not. She's 2 short if she gets AZ but not PA or NC.
Trump needs BOTH PA and NC to hit exactly 270. PA + AZ he's at 265. NC + AZ he's at 262.
This is really the first time in months that the electoral math has been going away from Trump.
As a North Carolinian I have to say it feels really bad knowing your state is actually blue, but it's gerrymandered so hard that it's red and that it will likely stay that way. I will do my best to make it blue again.
I'm terrified of Mark Robinson winning the governor race.
What a wonderful "democracy". The candidate with +7 is still a maybe to win.
The State polls change about a week after the national polls. Give them time to catch up.
High quality post.☝️
Norh Carolina is the state I'll be watching most closely.
NC and PA should both be closing and reporting at the same time, but PA has a higher population, so should take longer to get the counts.
Actually, by population, PA is the 5th largest state, behind California, Texas, Florida and New York. North Carolina is #9.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_population
I really like those numbers! Last time I looked at a polling map, it was Trump needing to win just one battleground state. Now it looks like Harris is in that seat.
As a great example of your point, my vote for Harris-Walz will be one of an overwhelming majority in my state. But that majority we contribute doesn’t really count past that 50%. MY state is predictable, just like the popular vote seems to be trending g bluer again, but what happens in Pennsylvania has so much more impact.
We can infer some things from the national poll though - of course this is all fuzzy statistics but they're always saying something like a +5 for dems in the national polling is roughly equal to an electoral victory.
The problem is if the poll over or under represents California or New York the numbers might not actually mean much.
Huh. I didn't know that Harris was doing so well in Michigan. Maybe she doesn't need the Arab vote after all!
She wasn't until recently.
But union vote >> Arab vote in that state.
The only poll that matters is on Nov 5. Vote.
OMG GO VOTE GUISE
Let's make it double digits. Maybe he will cry on national camera.
It really needs to be indisputable because otherwise we could get a repeat of w bush having the Supreme Court hand the victory over to him.
You know they're ready and waiting to do a repeat performance of Bush v Gore. It doesn't even need to be close, just take long enough to finish the count (see: PA being notoriously slow and probably quite important this time) that the Court has time to invent a decision.
It’s surprising that Trump still has the support he does.
The guy is too old and he can’t form a coherent sentence.
Pokémon Go to jail!
Actual article link instead of the AMP slop in the post: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4846433-harris-leading-trump-by-7-points-poll/
Make it 10! Make it 15! We don't stop until Harris is sworn in!
How much are points worth?
The headmaster always spoils the result by giving extra points to Gryffondor
We play one point per point.
Can Donald Trump count that high?
Yes. He has that many fingers. I'll feel better when he as to take his shoes off to count that high.
He probably needs help tying his shoes when he eventually gets them back on
I'm not sure he can see his feet.
Like seeing that 50% five more points and it'll be a rout.
Moar.
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