Ukraine's Kursk gambit upends some old assumptions about Russia and the war
Ukraine's Kursk gambit upends some old assumptions about Russia and the war
Except it doesn't really given that Ukrainian lines are collapsing all across the front while it's doing stunts to convince people in the west that it has fighting potential. The very fact that Ukraine has to fight for the media is one of the biggest handicaps. Russian army is able to fight at its own pace without having to worry about optics. Meanwhile, AFU is forced to constantly show the west that it's still capable of fighting. This has resulted in Ukraine getting drawn into disasters like Bakhmut, the fabled summer offensive, and now Kursk. In each case, Ukraine ends up losing huge numbers of troops and machinery that cannot be replaced without actually gaining anything strategically.
It seems like they took Kursk without losing much. Now they have a bargaining chip for peace talks and possibly diverted attention away from the main front. The western reporting may also get under Putins skin.
It seems like they took Kursk without losing much.
Pretty sure they lost at least 3 columns trying to take some towns there.
Now they have a bargaining chip for peace talks...
No they don't. For the territories they occupy to be a bargaining chip, the territories would need to be strategically important enough for their capture to threaten Russia's ability to fight this war (they aren't) and Ukraine would have to be able to guaranty that Russia can't get them back by fighting and is forced to negotiate to get them back (highly doubtful given that Ukraine can't even stop Russian advances in their own territory, only slow them down at best).
...and possibly diverted attention away from the main front.
Last I've heard Russia haven't even diverted troops from the main front line in Ukraine, so no, it didn't even achieve that. Which makes sense when you know that Russia has way more manpower and equipment than Ukraine right now, this isn't the stare of the war when Ukraine's army was motivated and received billion dollars arms shipments every week anymore.
Forcing the enemy army to split over more front lines only works if you have the resources to maintain more front lines better than your enemy can. Which is why it's Ukraine who are getting stretched thin by their own shenanigans here, not Russia, the Kursk invasion was objectively not a smart move.
The western reporting may also get under Putins skin.
That's cute, but war is won with steel and blood, not twitter ratios. "owning Putin" is at best going to be a very short moral boost that's only gonna last until the soldiers on the front line notice that they are still getting shredded en mass by Russian shells all the same as before.
They took Kursk
What are you talking about, they made it less than a third of the way to Kursk
Forbes seems to disagree with you there bud https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/08/17/out-in-the-open-and-on-the-move-in-russias-kursk-oblast-ukrainian-forces-are-vulnerable-and-losing-lots-of-armored-vehicles/
Also, not sure what you mean by "took Kurks", if you mean took a few villages by the border where they're losing way more troops than they did in dug in and prepared positions they were defending, then yeah big success.
Also, not sure how you think this is a bargaining chip. Given that they can't even hold well prepared positions in Donbas right now, how long do you think they'll be able to run around in Kursk?
Nor has this stunt diverted any Russian attention from the main front. https://www.ft.com/content/daa1a6ad-9ada-42ba-bfb2-2c199118e904
The reality is that Russia has far more troops than Ukraine at this point because this is primarily an artillery war with 80% of the casualties being artillery fire and where Russia enjoys roughly a 10x1 advantage in artillery. As a result, Ukraine is losing troops at a far faster rate than Russia is, hence why we're seeing a general collapse of the AFU unfolding.
Finally, pretty sure that western reporting is the last thing Putin cares about. This whole thing has been a gift to Russia because it weakened Ukrainian defenses on the main front, and put best Ukrainian troops in a vulnerable position. All Ukraine managed to accomplish is to speed up their own defeat.
The only thing it managed to do is to sabotage attempts at mediation and proposed partial ceasefire. Seems like factions in Kiev are started to tear itself apart, or their government branches does not coordinate to this point, or Uncle Sam's hand is still squezing them hard enough to force such obvious blunder (or all three in combination).
Second paragraph...
A former top U.S. commander and a senior [defense] analyst with deep ties to Ukraine both say no one should be quick to draw hasty conclusions from the events of the past two weeks.
heh.
In his nightly address on Sunday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said his country's daring military incursion aims to create a buffer zone to prevent further attacks by Moscow across the border.
If you can't keep your own territory, you're not actually creating a buffer zone.
The first assumption demolished by this operation was that Ukraine wouldn't be able to regain the initiative until next year.
Huh? Ukraine is currently in a holding position within its own country, throwing a bunch of troops at a bunch of small towns in Russia and claiming it as a strategic victory is right up there with the US military in Afghanistan parking a platoon of grunts in an empty house every 20 miles and coloring in the map of Afghanistan with the "secured" color on their PowerPoint presentations.
Some observers have speculated that Ukraine was trying to draw Russian troops away from the Donbas to relieve pressure on its forces there.
This is a reasonable assessment of the Ukraine gamble...
If that was the case, Karber said, the gamble "really hasn't paid off" and he fears the Ukrainians will soon face a determined counterattack on one or both of the shoulders of the salient.
... and Ukraine seems to have lost their bet.
"I think that it's been clear for some time that Russia does not have the ability to knock Ukraine out of the war as long as the West continues to provide even the modest amounts that we are providing now."
Or we can phrase it slightly differently as, "to the last Ukranian.""It seems like they're just trying to do more and more of the same, and certainly they will have lost thousands of experienced troops and leaders that are now being replaced by those who are not as well trained or experienced. Where is the bottom of that barrel for Russia?"
Where is the bottom of the barrel for Ukraine? So long as open warfare is happening, untrained troops are going to have "opportunities" to get experience. Until there aren't any more bodies to throw into the meat grinder, nobody is going to see the bottom of the barrel.