Bulletins and News Discussion from August 5th to August 11th, 2024 - LGBT - COTW: Iraq
Well, Iran and their allies' response may happen sometime this week and apparently they aren't talking to the US in order to negotiate how and where they will hit Israel (and Shoigu arrived in Tehran rather auspiciously), the Bangladeshi government just fell, F16s have been given to Ukraine, there are fascist riots in the UK, and Japan just had its worst stock fall since 1987 and seems to be taking several other countries/corporations with it. I don't really know where to look right now.
The COTW (Country of the Week) label is designed to spur discussion and debate about a specific country every week in order to help the community gain greater understanding of the domestic situation of often-understudied nations. If you've wanted to talk about the country or share your experiences, but have never found a relevant place to do so, now is your chance! However, don't worry - this is still a general news megathread where you can post about ongoing events from any country.
The Country of the Week is Iraq! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section. Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war. Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language. https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one. https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts. https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel. https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator. https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps. https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language. https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language. https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses. https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
I’ve been working a lot and haven’t caught up properly in awhile but what’s the deal with the delay with this Iranian response?
It seemed to me about a week ago that not only was it a sure thing, but there were also signals that this one was gonna be different as they were being a lot more guarded with their plans and it seemed like the prospect of war wasn’t even a dealbreaker.
Since then I’ve heard a lot of noise about how Iran has since tempered it’s potential response and seeks a response that doesn’t cross the line.
Perhaps there’s an internal debate within the Iranian elite upper echelons/military guys? I know the new Iranian president is from the more moderate wing and seeks closer ties to the west in the long run but I imagine the amount of pressure he’s under to not capitulate is extremely significant
The Iranian response in April also took two weeks to plan and execute, so it's no great surprise that the same thing would be occurring here. Nasrallah literally stated a couple days ago that the "delay" in the response was part of the response - to instill fear about when it would occur and how bad it would be. You can call that 100 copium rizzler skibidi or whatever """political analysts""" on twitter are saying, but Nasrallah has always been a very serious person and I've never seen him speak lightly.
Since then I’ve heard a lot of noise about how Iran has since tempered it’s potential response and seeks a response that doesn’t cross the line.
I am extraordinarily reticent about believing anti-Iranian rumors in the current media environment; Israel has done its utmost to try and divide the Resistance and their supporters.
There is obviously anxiety about starting a war with Israel, but I don't think they fear it. Several months ago, I remember a statement by Hezbollah that one of the key reasons why they haven't fully started a war is because Hamas has not given them the go-ahead - Hamas is leading the charge for Palestinian liberation and everything else is a support front.
I suppose here's the critical question, separate from any vibes or idealism: does the actions of Hezbollah over the last year align with them fearing a war with Israel, or not fearing it? The mass destruction of border infrastructure; forcing the evacuation of hundreds of thousands of settlers? Does Iran literally striking Israeli military bases, more-or-less a first in the region, align with Iran fearing Israel or not fearing them?
In comparison: does Syria not doing as much to directly strike Israel align with them fearing Israel or not fearing them? I would argue the former in that case, due to Syria's deeply troubled situation.
perhaps there are under-the-table communications going on which nobody but the higher levels of the governments involved are aware of. maybe efforts to actually reach some kind of mediation. the kind of war that we are on the precipice of would really be rough going for both the zionists and the Iranian government; an under-estimated factor in all of this, imho, is the severe internal strife within Iran and the fact that the Islamic Republic could easily be toppled in the midst of all-out war (even a righteous one)
Lebanon too is not in a great place at all either and no faction within that country actually wants the war to come with full force to their doorstep. Syria's govt is still widely unpopular and faces regular unrest not to mention the civil war hasn't ended. Egypt and Jordan don't want to deal with that shit either because of their own restive populations. etc. Yemen is probably the only actual state actor that has so little to lose that a war is feasible (hence they've been openly at war with israel for months already)
Probably a smart move because otherwise your athletes will have to travel back while bombs and drones are flying around, which could kill them and cause even worse humiliation and grief because this time it’s not a guest but a citizen.
Honestly, the only proportional response here is a regional war, and nobody wants to nor do they have the stomach to give the US the war it wants.
A war is not a dinner party, just to be clear here. It can turn into a prolonged conflict that takes years and have long-lasting impact on the economy and the society, and can be especially hard on an already fragile economy. And the society at large, sympathetic as they are, likely don’t have the stomach to get involved in such conflicts where their livelihoods could be upended. If the conflict turns nuclear, the consequences are magnitudes of order worse.
So, giving the US the war it wants, everyone loses. Not giving them the war, the Palestinians lose.
This is the bind the US has created for its adversaries. It is openly calling out their bluffs on deterrence and they have none to respond with, because any meaningful step is likely going to make the situation worse, much much worse.
I'm my mind palace, it's that they are secretly shipping arms to a bunch of opposition forces in places like KSA, UAE, and Jordan, and are waiting till the guns arrive to let shit pop off.
They should, but I don't know if they do. The Eastern Province of KSA, where some of their largest refineries are, have significant Shia populations, including some areas with Shia majorities.
CNN reported/speculated that Iran was attempting to trade a retaliatory response for ceasefire; not sure why Bibi would do that, unless Biden finally stood up to him.
Iran has since tempered it’s potential response and seeks a response that doesn’t cross the line.
The first stage of the plan is to make the zionists afraid of the response, second is to maker them think there will be no response. Third will be to respond so hard that they think the response will never end.