Why this summer’s forecast is bad news for the US after an exceptionally disastrous start to the year

The United States has been rocked by an extraordinary number of tornadoes and devastating storms this year that have already left a staggering price tag.

Now heading into what forecasters say will be an extreme summer – from punishing heat waves to severe weather and hurricanes – the nation’s disaster relief agency is expected to run out of money before it’s even over.

The US has been thrashed with 11 extreme weather disasters with costs exceeding $1 billion so far this year, with a total price tag of $25.1 billion, according to an updated tally from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It’s tied for the second-most such disasters on record and doesn’t even include the extreme weather in the second half of May, said Adam Smith, an applied climatologist with NOAA.

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FEMA’s tenuous balance sheet reflects how many destructive storms have already lashed the US.

This spring produced the second-most tornadoes to-date since records began in 1950, according to the Storm Prediction Center. Tornado activity skyrocketed from late April through May, with more than 780 confirmed tornadoes cutting across the central and eastern US during April and May, the SPC said.

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A chorus of expert voices are calling for an above-average Atlantic hurricane season as anxiety-inducing conditions in the atmosphere and oceans align. Record-breaking ocean heat is expected to feed hurricanes, helping them form, strengthen and survive. El Niño is predicted to give way to La Niña and create more favorable atmospheric conditions for storms to thrive.

Just about every kind of extreme weather is possible during summer, including more severe thunderstorms. June is the third-most active month for tornadoes in the US, according to the SPC. It’s also the most-active month for destructive and costly severe hail, a 2012 study found.