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Bulletins and News Discussion from May 6th to May 12th, 2024 - The Nagorno-Karabakh Nosedive - COTW: Armenia

Image is of Stepanakert, essentially the capital of Nagorno-Karabakh. It is now a ghost city, and Azerbaijan has recently torn down the parliament building and various other important places. Sourced from this article.


Despite the predictions and assertions of various NATO-aligned commentators that Russia's influence is waning, the opposite generally appears to be occurring. ASEAN has become more strongly aligned with Russia despite claims to the contrary. In Central Asia, there has been a propaganda push to declare that countries there are "emerging from Russia's shadow", while in reality, as Bhadrakumar analyzes, Russia's significant economic growth and ongoing march towards victory in Ukraine is creating opportunities for further integration, not separation, and there are no major political shifts there in terms of Russian ties. And in Niger, Russian soldiers have now entered an airbase which once hosted American soldiers, now kicked out, and generally Russia's diplomacy and economic deals (nuclear power plant construction, military equipment, grain shipments, etc) have accelerated in Africa.

Where Russia's influence has actually seemed to decrease (outside of the West, of course) is in Armenia. Nagorno-Karabakh's remarkably rapid collapse in late 2023 demonstrated that Russia was not willing to escalate things in defense of Armenia to fend off Azerbaijan. One hundred thousand Armenians - most but not all of them in the region - fled in advance to avoid mass persecution, which received remarkably little attention by a West which calls itself overwhelmingly concerned with borders changing due to military action as in Ukraine. Since then, Armenia seems to be on some kind of self-annihilating bender, allured by the potential of Western military and economic deals. Armenia froze its membership in the CSTO due to its failure to protect them, and the head of NATO, Stoltenberg, visited the region in March. The West has offered up hundreds of millions of dollars in assistance to Armenia and is helping them "modernize their military"; given the poor track record of Western military equipment in Ukraine, one wonders why they're even bothering. RAND has advocated for a balancing act; America should, in their eyes, realize that they can't entirely remove Russia's influence but nonetheless should make inroads to protect Armenia from Azerbaijan (which is an interesting position given that Israel provided arms to Azerbaijan to help them take Nagorno-Karabakh).

A quick look at Armenia's geographical position reveals the folly of trying to create some kind of Western outpost. With a hostile Azerbaijan to their east, a very unfriendly (albeit NATO member) Turkiye to their west, an ascendant Iran to their south, and Russia not far from the action, there is little hope of doing much more than causing a little chaos in the hopes it'll momentarily distract Russia while it makes inroads most everywhere else on the planet. The political situation appears miserable for Pashinyan, but there isn't really a popular alternative to take the reins. A truly cursed situation.


The COTW (Country of the Week) label is designed to spur discussion and debate about a specific country every week in order to help the community gain greater understanding of the domestic situation of often-understudied nations. If you've wanted to talk about the country or share your experiences, but have never found a relevant place to do so, now is your chance! However, don't worry - this is still a general news megathread where you can post about ongoing events from any country.

The Country of the Week is Armenia! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.

Please check out the HexAtlas!

The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA daily-ish reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news (and has automated posting when the person running it goes to sleep).
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Various sources that are covering the Ukraine conflict are also covering the one in Palestine, like Rybar.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful. Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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  • Destroying the energy sector, your research and losing energetic sovereignty to own the commies ancaptain

    Argentina’s pioneering nuclear research threatened by huge budget cuts

    President Javier Milei is making moves to partially privatize the sector, but in the meantime, projects have paused.

    Owing to massive budget cuts and lay-offs of government employees, Argentina’s nuclear sector — which includes power plants and research facilities — is at risk, scientists say. The country was the first in Latin America to adopt nuclear energy, has three operating plants that provide about 5–10% of the nation’s electrical energy and runs numerous reactors used for research.

    But because Argentina’s current administration, led by far-right president Javier Milei, has held the federal budget flat compared with that in 2023, the sector is facing a financial crisis. Inflation reached more than 200% last year — meaning that, in real terms, a stagnant budget is equivalent to a funding drop of at least 50%. Milei, who took office in December after pledging to diminish the role of government in Argentina and bring the country’s debts under control, has also laid off 15,000 federal employees in the past five months.

    With its current budget, the National Atomic Energy Commission (CNEA) will be able to carry out its activities only “until May or June”, according to a statement published in March and signed by the agency’s leaders. The CNEA has been operating since 1950; it sets the country’s nuclear policy and carries out research to improve “the quality of life for society”, among other responsibilities.

    “All these [activities] could be in danger,” Adriana Serquis, former head of the CNEA, tells Nature. On Friday, the Milei administration at last accepted Serquis’s resignation, which she had submitted before the president took office in December.

    “We cannot operate with this budget,” she says. The agency has taken out loans with private firms in the past few months to keep working, she adds. CNEA authorities stressed to the Milei administration that the agency would need a 2024 budget of US$270 million to operate at a minimal level. The government guaranteed the CNEA only $100 million.

    Milei has made moves towards at least partially privatizing Argentina’s nuclear sector. Yesterday, he appointed Germán Guido Lavalle, founder of candoit, an engineering and technology consulting firm based in Buenos Aires, to lead the CNEA — a move that aligns with that push.

    The agency has had to pause construction on two projects that could have brought even more renown to Argentina’s nuclear sector: one is a ‘small modular reactor’ prototype that is among the first in the world to be built for electricity generation, and the other is a research reactor that might have produced enough of the radioisotope molybdenum-99, commonly used in medical diagnostic imaging, to meet 20% of global demand.

    If this continues, Serquis says, “Argentina will lose its place in the ‘nuclear club’” — referring to the country’s prowess in nuclear research, a global status it has maintained among wealthy nations.

    Projects stagnate

    One of the stalled nuclear projects is the small modular reactor CAREM, intended to supply low-carbon electricity to rural areas where large power plants can’t be built. Nuclear scientists have been working for decades to create this type of reactor, and countries, including Argentina, have been in a race to get theirs fired up quickly. CAREM, a prototype, would use uranium fission to supply around 30 megawatts of electrical power. If successful, it could be scaled up to larger, commercial versions supplying 300 megawatts of electric power. More than $600 million has been invested into CAREM since construction began in 2014, but another $200 million to $300 million is needed to finish it.

    “It has less electrical production capacity than a nuclear power plant, but it’s also cheaper and safer,” says Tomás Avallone, a chemist and nuclear-reactors operator at the CNEA. It could be installed anywhere, be used for high-energy-consumption activities such as water desalinization and bring power to 300,000 people, he says.

    Another stagnating project is RA-10, a 30-megawatt reactor that would use neutron beams to produce medical radioisotopes. Scientists could also use RA-10 to conduct materials research. “It is a multipurpose reactor,” says Rodolfo Kempf, nuclear-waste manager at the CNEA. The main construction on RA-10 has been completed, Kempf says, but its instruments haven’t been installed.

    Argentina has so far invested more than $400 million in building the reactor, and another $80 million is needed. The commercial sale of the reactor design should provide a significant return on investment, say researchers who spoke to Nature.

    Privatization push

    The Milei administration has been advocating for the privatization of science and education in Argentina. In April, it sent a bill to Congress that includes a list of state companies to be fully or partially privatized. Nucleoeléctrica Argentina, a state-run firm based in Buenos Aires that oversees the country’s three nuclear plants, is on the list to be partially privatized. If this comes to pass, the government would maintain the majority of Nucleoeléctrica shares, and its vote would be needed for actions including expanding the capacity of a power plant, building a new one or adding shareholders to the company.

    Alfredo Caro, a nuclear physicist and former director of the CNEA’s Bariloche Atomic Centre, estimates that a 30% stake in Nucleoeléctrica would be worth between $700 million and $1 billion. If that stake were sold, it might allow the government to finalize the construction of CAREM and RA-10, as well as to complete a planned upgrade of the Atucha I power plant, located about 120 kilometres northwest of Buenos Aires, to extend its lifetime, he says. “A partial privatization could help the sector carry on,” Caro says, “but only if the funds that are raised remain in the sector and are not spent on other areas of the state” — a big ‘if’, given the financial crisis in Argentina. The country’s gross domestic product is expected to drop 3.3% this year, according to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.

    Officials at Argentina’s Secretariat of Energy and Nucleoeléctrica didn’t respond to questions from Nature about their plans for the nuclear sector. Meanwhile, the bill to privatize state companies has been approved by the lower chamber of Argentina’s Congress, and will now be considered by the Senate.

    Welcome to libertarianism, where all your achievements are destroyed in the name of market fundamentalism and foreign interests. I was told by someone who knows much more about this that the request to defund and privatize (in other words, destroy) this program comes exclusively from abroad. It is a request "several US-based nuclear firms" made because the Argentinian reactors and research are "way too competitive", so it must be pushed aside. I cannot prove this, but it wouldn't surprise me.

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