But Biden also got more than Hillary did in 2016 also he got more than trump did in 2020. In both of those elections people were voting against the other candidate as they will be in this election.
Mathematically possible for Trump to win the general election with something like 40% of the popular vote, purely based on winning swing states by thin margins.
Also, we haven't seen whether an indie candidate will enter the race. There's still plenty of time for a Perot-style candidate to futz the numbers even further.
The RNC is out of money. Trump is going to spend his money on legal expenses and penalties.
He's not going to be able to effectively campaign in the mouths leading up to the election because of a bunch of court dates between now and then.
It's only going to get worse for Trump as we get closer to the election. Biden is just starting to sort of campaign.
Trump's chances of winning are lower than it seems. Not that we shouldn't all vote because he absolutely will burn shit to the ground if we give him another chance.