Bulletins and News Discussion from December 4th to December 10th, 2023 - The Legacy of Kissinger - COTW: Laos
Due to American cluster bombing campaigns advised by Kissinger during the Vietnam War to damage supply lines, over 2 million tonnes of ordinance were dropped on Laos over about a decade, averaging a planeload of bombs every 8 minutes. Laos is thus the most bombed country on the planet up to this point. 80 million bombs failed to explode - the cleanup operation is expected to take centuries, and 25,000 people have been killed and injured by bombs in the last 50 years. About 50 people are killed or injured every year to this day.
After the United States withdrew from Laos, the Pathet Lao took power and abolished the monarchy. Kaysone Phomvihane became a dominant figure in Laotian politics, keeping the course on Marxism-Leninism and implementing the first Five Year Plan in 1981. The second Five Year Plan in 1986 was modelled on Lenin's NEP, and this doubled rice production and significantly increased sugar production. After the fall of the USSR, Laos allowed a small capitalist class to exist, with similar control over them as in China. Laos maintains a 48-hour work week with paid sick leave, vacation time, and maternity leave, and workers are well-represented in trade unions. They faired relatively well during coronavirus from a social standpoint due to quick and efficient action to lock down the country, experiencing ~750 deaths out of a population of over 7 million.
There is hope even after utter destruction by genocidal oppressors.
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section. Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war. Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language. https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one. https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts. https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel. https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator. https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps. https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language. https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language. https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses. https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Miscalculations, divisions marked offensive planning by U.S., Ukraine
pretty long article, so only some choice bits:
spoiler
Key elements that shaped the counteroffensive and the initial outcome include:
● Ukrainian, U.S. and British military officers held eight major tabletop war games to build a campaign plan. But Washington miscalculated the extent to which Ukraine’s forces could be transformed into a Western-style fighting force in a short period — especially without giving Kyiv air power integral to modern militaries.
● U.S. and Ukrainian officials sharply disagreed at times over strategy, tactics and timing. The Pentagon wanted the assault to begin in mid-April to prevent Russia from continuing to strengthen its lines. The Ukrainians hesitated, insisting they weren’t ready without additional weapons and training.
● U.S. military officials were confident that a mechanized frontal attack on Russian lines was feasible with the troops and weapons that Ukraine had. The simulations concluded that Kyiv’s forces, in the best case, could reach the Sea of Azov and cut off Russian troops in the south in 60 to 90 days.
● Many in Ukraine and the West underestimated Russia’s ability to rebound from battlefield disasters and exploit its perennial strengths: manpower, mines and a willingness to sacrifice lives on a scale that few other countries can countenance.
ah, so we're back to the good old Nazi excuse of "they just won through superior numbers"
The year began with Western resolve at its peak, Ukrainian forces highly confident and President Volodymyr Zelensky predicting a decisive victory. But now, there is uncertainty on all fronts. Morale in Ukraine is waning. International attention has been diverted to the Middle East. Even among Ukraine’s supporters, there is growing political reluctance to contribute more to a precarious cause. At almost every point along the front, expectations and results have diverged as Ukraine has shifted to a slow-moving dismounted slog that has retaken only slivers of territory.
The campaign’s inconclusive and discouraging early months pose sobering questions for Kyiv’s Western backers about the future, as Zelensky — supported by an overwhelming majority of Ukrainians — vows to fight until Ukraine restores the borders established in its 1991 independence from the Soviet Union. “That’s going to take years and a lot of blood,” a British security official said, if it’s even possible. “Is Ukraine up for that? What are the manpower implications? The economic implications? Implications for Western support?”
In a conference call in the late fall of 2022, after Kyiv had won back territory in the north and south, Austin spoke with Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, Ukraine’s top military commander, and asked him what he would need for a spring offensive. Zaluzhny responded that he required 1,000 armored vehicles and nine new brigades, trained in Germany and ready for battle. “I took a big gulp,” Austin said later, according to an official with knowledge of the call. “That’s near-impossible,” he told colleagues.
During one visit to Wiesbaden, Milley spoke with Ukrainian special operations troops — who were working with American Green Berets — in the hope of inspiring them ahead of operations in enemy-controlled areas. “There should be no Russian who goes to sleep without wondering if they’re going to get their throat slit in the middle of the night,” Milley said, according to an official with knowledge of the event. “You gotta get back there, and create a campaign behind the lines.”
??? dude just infiltrate a gajilion special forces behind enemy lines lmao, like what the fuck are American military "thinkers" even smoking?
Ukrainian officials hoped the offensive could re-create the success of the fall of 2022, when they recovered parts of the Kharkiv region in the northeast and the city of Kherson in the south in a campaign that surprised even Ukraine’s biggest backers. Again, their focus would be in more than one place.
recreate the success of the time the enemy just retreated because they were in a bad position and barely fought us at all
The exercises also predicted a difficult and bloody fight, with losses of soldiers and equipment as high as 30 to 40 percent, according to U.S. officials. ... War-gaming “doesn’t work,” the [senior Ukrainian military official] said in retrospect, in part because of the new technology that was transforming the battlefield. Ukrainian soldiers were fighting a war unlike anything NATO forces had experienced: a large conventional conflict, with World World I-style trenches overlaid by omnipresent drones and other futuristic tools — and without the air superiority the U.S. military has had in every modern conflict it has fought. “All these methods … you can take them neatly and throw them away, you know?” the senior Ukrainian said of the war-game scenarios. “And throw them away because it doesn’t work like that now.”
A far bigger problem was the supply of 155mm shells, which would enable Ukraine to compete with Russia’s vast artillery arsenal. The Pentagon calculated that Kyiv needed 90,000 or more a month. While U.S. production was increasing, it was barely more than a tenth of that.
“The plan that they executed was entirely feasible with the force that they had, on the timeline that we planned out,” a senior U.S. military official said.
it's not our fault we have no idea what the fuck we're doing, the plan was perfect, those damn slavs just couldn't execute it correctly
Many in Ukraine and the West underestimated Russia’s ability to rebound from battlefield disasters and exploit its perennial strengths: manpower, mines and a willingness to sacrifice lives on a scale that few other countries can countenance.
Or, you know, artillery, drones, dragon teeth, tanks...
Konstantin Yefremov, a former officer with Russia’s 42nd motorized rifle division who was stationed in Zaporizhzhia in 2022, recalled that Russia had the equipment and grunt power necessary to build a solid wall against attack. ... The poverty, desperation and fear of the tens of thousands of conscripted Russian soldiers made them an ideal workforce. “All you need is slave power,” he said. “And even more so, Russian rank-and-file soldiers know they are [building trenches and other defenses] for themselves, to save their skin.”
could it be that the Russians are actually good at building fortifications? no, they're using... slave power?! This is North Korean defector level of "that totally happened", honestly Russia & China should just have spies deliberately pretend-defect and feed the Americans bullshit, since clearly they'll believe whatever you tell them if you just say that you fled the evil oppressive regime
Intelligence over the winter had shown that Russian defenses were relatively weak and largely unmanned, and that morale was low among Russian troops after their losses in Kharkiv and Kherson. U.S. intelligence assessed that senior Russian officers felt the prospects were bleak.
with intel like this, who needs enemies? critical support to American intelligence officers for sabotaging their country by being complete morons
As May ground on, it seemed to the Americans that Kyiv, gung-ho during the war games and the training, had abruptly slowed down ... “But they were telling us for almost a month … ‘We’re about to go. We’re about to go.’” ... In Ukraine, a different kind of frustration was building. “When we had a calculated timeline, yes, the plan was to start the operation in May,” said a former senior Ukrainian official who was deeply involved in the effort. “However, many things happened.”
Promised equipment was delivered late or arrived unfit for combat, the Ukrainians said. “A lot of weapons that are coming in now, they were relevant last year,” the senior Ukrainian military official said, not for the high-tech battles ahead. Crucially, he said, they had received only 15 percent of items — like the Mine Clearing Line Charge launchers (MCLCs) — needed to execute their plan to remotely cut passages through the minefields. And yet, the senior Ukrainian military official recalled, the Americans were nagging about a delayed start and still complaining about how many troops Ukraine was devoting to Bakhmut.
U.S. officials vehemently denied that the Ukrainians did not get all the weaponry they were promised. ... “They got everything they were promised, on time,” one senior U.S. official said. In some cases, the officials said, Ukraine failed to deploy equipment critical to the offensive, holding it in reserve or allocating it to units that weren’t part of the assault.
damn, I wonder why the army that keeps getting its shit blown up by drones might be reluctant to deploy it out in the open. Like, we saw what happened to all the equipment that they didn't hold in reserve, and the Americans want them to have deployed even more of it?!
As the preparations accelerated, Ukrainian officials’ concerns grew more acute, erupting at a meeting at Ramstein Air Base in Germany in April when Zaluzhny’s deputy, Mykhailo Zabrodskyi, made an emotional appeal for help. “We’re sorry, but some of the vehicles we received are unfit for combat,” Zabrodskyi told Austin and his aides, according to a former senior Ukrainian official. He said the Bradleys and Leopards had broken or missing tracks. German Marder fighting vehicles lacked radio sets; they were nothing more than iron boxes with tracks — useless if they couldn’t communicate with their units, he said. Ukrainian officials said the units for the counteroffensive lacked sufficient de-mining and evacuation vehicles. ... The Pentagon concluded that Ukrainian forces were failing to properly handle and maintain all the equipment after it was received. Austin directed Aguto to work more intensively with his Ukrainian counterparts on maintenance.
once again, it couldn't possibly be that Western equipment has problems, it's all the Ukrainians' fault
It was June 7 and Ukraine’s long-awaited counteroffensive was about to begin. ... Nothing went as planned. ... The Ukrainian troops had expected minefields but were blindsided by the density. The ground was carpeted with explosives, so many that some were buried in stacks. The soldiers had been trained to drive their Bradleys at a facility in Germany, on smooth terrain. But on the mushy soil of the Zaporizhzhia region, in the deafening noise of battle, they struggled to steer through the narrow lanes cleared of mines by advance units. The Russians, positioned on higher ground, immediately started firing antitank missiles. Some vehicles in the convoy were hit, forcing others behind them to veer off the path. Those, in turn, exploded on mines, snarling even more of the convoy. Russian helicopters and drones swooped in and attacked the pileup. ... “It was hellfire,” said Oleh Sentsov, a platoon commander in the 47th. ... The numbers of dead and wounded sapped morale.
Rather than try to breach Russian defenses with a massed, mechanized attack and supporting artillery fire, as his American counterparts had advised, Zaluzhny decided that Ukrainian soldiers would go on foot in small groups of about 10 — a process that would save equipment and lives but would be much slower. Months of planning with the United States was tossed aside on that fourth day, and the already delayed counteroffensive, designed to reach the Sea of Azov within two to three months, ground to a near-halt.
Key findings from reporting on the campaign include:
● Seventy percent of troops in one of the brigades leading the counteroffensive, and equipped with the newest Western weapons, entered battle with no combat experience.
● The commander of U.S. forces in Europe couldn’t get in touch with Ukraine’s top commander for weeks in the early part of the campaign amid tension over the American’s second-guessing of battlefield decisions.
● Each side blamed the other for mistakes or miscalculations. U.S. military officials concluded that Ukraine had fallen short in basic military tactics, including the use of ground reconnaissance to understand the density of minefields. Ukrainian officials said the Americans didn’t seem to comprehend how attack drones and other technology had transformed the battlefield.
“We thought it was going to be a simple two-day task” to take Robotyne, said the commander of a Bradley Fighting Vehicle who goes by the call sign Frenchman.
It really makes me wonder if this is what they actually believe or if this is just the version they're sending down to the small subset of the general public who still gives a shit. I think it might be the latter, and that they're freaking out because Russia's lost hardly any troops and equipment compared to the vast losses Ukraine has taken over the last 6 months (how time flies!) but are couching their Ls to make them appear as sort-of-Ws, like "Oh, we didn't realize that Russia would send 2 million troops to their deaths in human waves to counter us and that is what defeated us, alas!"
If it's the former then it's actually encouraging, as it shows that they have literally no idea what's going on in Ukraine and Russia and will go into future wars with completely faulty lessons from this conflict and produce further Ls. And, honestly, one wonders how much of Israel eating shit in Gaza right now could be explained by these generals looking at Russia and taking the exact opposite lesson that they should have taken. But on balance I think the IDF being incompetent is perfectly explainable with the regular kind of Western military incompetence that assumes that their enemies are knuckle-dragging idiots and that their own soldiers are genius ubermensch, and the fact that the IDF's only military experiences over the last few decades have been a) shooting at unarmed children for sport, leading them to shit themselves in fear (and due to disease now, lmfao) whenever an adult comes at them with an actual weapon); b) losing the Sinai to Egypt after getting owned in 1979-82; c) getting owned by Hezbollah and losing what is now southern Lebanon in 2000; and d) getting owned by Hezbollah again in 2006, when the group was tiny compared to the colossus it now is.
It really makes me wonder if this is what they actually believe or if this is just the version they're sending down to the small subset of the general public who still gives a shit.
If you ever decide to be generous enough here I think when they say "officials" then it is a different class of people than I believe the actual NATO field commanders and military chain.
Part of me wants to believe that the actual NATO command structure isn't this clueless and incompetent but rather this was entirely a combination of being fed "intelligence" that just said exactly what you wanted to hear(i.e at some point dissenting reports were denied and hidden as it would go against the narrative) and the fact this entire plan was probably devised at a very high level which means a lot of clueless politicians and literal armchair generals giving advice.
Like the usual IT job where management says they want product with feature X which is clearly impossible, but the team is given a deadline and says fuck it.
I imagine if there was such a strategy group made for this all then they clearly said fuck it, we know its impossible, we know Ukraine wont have time to train or air power or whatever, but if management wants a plan to conquer Crimea in 60 days then they'll get their "plan".
This is why I'm a bit cautious about dunking on shit like the F-35 endlessly, as if its a reflection of the entire US military. Of course it reflects the issues in so many ways, but if you get NATO armored divisions in Ukraine today, we would have WW3 and Russia would have a serious actual tough fight here.
Obviously that wont happen but for example, the US has thousands of F-16s but they refuse(d) to give them to Ukraine, or delay as much as possible.
They give shit little by little and I can't quite understand why, ignoring the MIC grifters(javelin/TB2 drone shit), beyond the obvious fear of escalation, on some level they believe Ukraine isn't worth it which is so contradictory.
Which goes back to the point, if the US actually thought this was worth going into WW3 over then maybe Ukraine would have a chance? But they don't think its worth giving Ukraine all the good shit that actualy somewhat works and its good news for us, but it should not be a sign that western military is all shit is what I'm trying to say.
It really makes me wonder if this is what they actually believe or if this is just the version they're sending down to the small subset of the general public who still gives a shit.
History is littered with empires that suffer military defeat from hubris. There are enough stupid things and weaknesses in ukraine's own power to paper over the systemic weaknesses in the NATO approach to war with Russia/peer combat. I'm sure there are some defense analysts here and there that are not braindead and who are learning the actual lessons from this conflict, but do not underestimate the sheer momentum of 2 trillion dollars a year spent on this extremely entrenched set of interests and boondoggles. It will take more than a few lone voices that understand material reality to turn the ship.
Further, don't look at this military defeat as a true loss for the powers that be. Yes ukraine has been wrecked, but it was a puppet anyway, they don't give a shit about a bunch of excess slavs. Yes the nato war machine suffered loss of prestige, but the case for rearming and buying all new stuff has never been stronger since Europe pissed all over Russia and flushed their existing materiel. What are the golf course countries going to do, go buy alligators from russia and chengdus from China? Fuck no, general dynamics and Raytheon are still the only game in town even if buyers know they are overpriced. That's the price of being a vassal.
The purpose of the war machine is to facilitate financial capital, not to win wars with peers. The US will not learn the military lessons of this conflict (dirigisme, industrial capacity, limits of propaganda, how to fight with air parity or worse) until the military industrial complex fails to meet its primary aim of facilitating wealth transfer. That is still at least one and probably two direct crushing defeats on the America military away from happening. That is to say, not close.
vows to fight until Ukraine restores the borders established in its 1991 independence from the Soviet Union. “That’s going to take years and a lot of blood,” a British security official said, if it’s even possible. “Is Ukraine up for that?
The idea that this is even possible is fucking insane. Oh sure we know it'll be pushing up against overwhelming military advantage that is only going to get more slanted against ukraine, but it's fine because that means we just need more time and blood. The ussr borders of ukraine are 100x more likely to be restored by Russia conquering the whole territory than the other way around
Worse than decimated - decimated is 1 in 10. The population of ukraine is probably about half of what it was a few years ago, between refugees/migrants, lost population centers, and military losses.
and without the air superiority the U.S. military has had in every modern conflict it has fought
Other aspects of this war like use of drones, electronic warfare, defensive placements etc - a lot of that is hard to anticipate and is unknown by nature. However, not just the lack of air superiority that ukraine suffers but the fact that they are subject to aerial denial by Russia was 100% foreseeable from about April 1 of 2022. That single fact meant that from the get go all of NATO's playbook was utterly useless.