Most people will install Windows 11, complain about it, complain about the lack of Windows alternatives, then get offended and spam downvote anyone who mentions an alternative.
Most people will buy a computer, that computer will have Windows 11 on it, they'll start using that computer and the pre-installed OS that came with it, and maybe, occasionally, they will complain that "this is different now" and that "they always change things, it's so annoying" and that will be the end of it.
If you're talking about people who install or even just upgrade the OS on their computer by themselves, are aware of such a concept as "alternative operating systems," engage in any kind of conversation about operating systems on social media, and then care enough about the topic to downvote people who disagree with them on purely ideological grounds, you're already talking about a tiny, tiny minority of computer users.
As tech illiterate as people are they also love complaining. Mostly complaining that Microsoft has a monopoly over computing. They generally don't know what an OS is as you said but will still complain. Of course since they don't know much telling them anything will get them offended as they feel that their intelligence was questioned.
I'm trying to learn Linux, got Cinnamon to dip my toes into, and love it.
And being someone who is computer literate, finding a distro that was similar to windows to learn with was a pain. With all the infighting and superiority complexs on forums, the absolute number of variations of distros, combined with the avalanche of information you need to digest just to get a basic understanding....
Yeah, I get why people will stick to Windows and ignore free/better alternatives, all while complaining. It's just not worth it to a vast majority of users.
Yeah...this is going to be a super unpopular opinion, but there needs to be a designated distro for new users who aren't sure what to go with. If someone asks "What distro should I-" the rest doesn't matter. We just agree on one distro and that's it. Once they have a reason to look for another distro, they'll have the knowledge to find it themselves.
To me? I use a laptop and don't really tinker with my hardware at all, the benefits for me is I get the latest-ish versions of software (including user applications), and there isn't this big jump between new versions
that 'designated distro' for newcomers used to be ubuntu. probably still is. as much as i'd want to say mint or some other variant of ubuntu or debian that i happen to like.. 'one man shows' and distros with very small teams aren't what a new user should be going with. there's a reason why so many base off ubuntu. it's big. it's solid. and it just works.