Bulletins and News Discussion from April 7th to April 13th, 2025 - Juche With Trumpian Characteristics

Image is allegedly of the note Trump wrote while editing a speech while on the way back from the G20 summit.

The top Russian-Chinese agent, Donald Trump, has decided that the pace of dedollarization and the decline of American financial hegemony is going too slowly. He has therefore decided to put tariffs on everybody; from America's largest trading partners to uninhabited islands. In the process, he is trying to create an autarkic America. Jokes aside, interpretation and analysis of this has ranged across a wide spectrum. I think we can broadly agree that the most idiotic are the "true believers"; those that actually believe Trump's every word, and that this will somehow bring back American manufacturing and whatever other inane promises he has made.

However, there is a much more interesting debate. The first camp are those who believe Trump is acting as an inadvertent accelerationist due to his lack of understanding about how the world economy and dollar hegemony functions (and that this will subsequently ensure that countries flock to China instead). The second camp are those who believe that Trump does know what he's doing, at least to a certain extent, and that the effective result of this period of madness will be countries kowtowing to the United States; renegotiating trade deals to be even more in favor of the US in order to get tariffs reduced. There's even a yet more cynical camp who believes that in fact, this entire trade war is just theater for further national wealth redistributions from poor to rich; that all these monumental international trade wars are more of a sideshow. To quote the linked article: "[...] out of the mountain of tariffs that threaten to turn into a global trade war will emerge the mouse of further tax cuts."

I'm not embarrassed to admit that I have absolutely no idea which one of these is the closest model to reality. We're in new economic and political ground, and even if the tariffs are quickly renegotiated and/or dropped, the impacts will continue to reverberate around the world for years. I'm sure we'll debate this for months to come here, though!

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Indirect US-Iran negotiations have started in Oman. President Trump is willing to make concessions in order to reach a deal with Iran, per U.S. Officials
Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi, will ONLY discuss the issue of nuclear proliferation – not the ballistic missile program or Iran's support for regional groups. These two additional demands are a no-go for Iran, and the Supreme Leader has not authorized the Foreign Ministry to even discuss them. If the Americans push on either of these two topics, the negotiations are over.
Iranian media report that the first signs of the negotiations in Oman are 'positive'
The indirect talks between Iran and the United States in Oman will 'conclude today' and not extend into tomorrow, and there is currently no truth to a direct meeting between Witkoff and Araqchi
Immediately following the first round of negotiations in Oman, the Iranian Rial rose sharply against the US Dollar, going from 97,000 USD per Toman to 92,900 USD per Toman
'The indirect talks in Oman were constructive and held in a generally positive atmosphere, and they lasted approximately 2.5 hours. U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Seyyed Abbas Araqchi talked briefly face-to-face in the presence of the Omani Foreign Minister after the end of the first round of negotiations. The talks will continue, and the exact timing and date will be announced in the near future.
We will not allow any country, including the United States, to go too far and impose unrealistic demands upon us. The Qajar and Pahlavi eras are over, and this is the era of the great Islamic Iran, which holds its head high.'
Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi: 'While leaving the negotiations room, we encountered the U.S. Envoy, Steve Witkoff, and exchanged greetings out of courtesy, as is customary in diplomacy. Nothing content-related was said.'
'Today we have come close to a 'basis' on which negotiations can be held – Saturday we will continue, and start the negotiation process, including the timetable'
'The discussions took place in a calm and polite atmosphere, and the American side did not issue any threats'
'Both sides want a deal in the short-term, and not fruitless negotiations that drag on for months or years, but this won't be easy
Telegram
- I'm going to guess this is the Middle East Spectator telegram, because of the wording.
  Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi, will ONLY discuss the issue of nuclear proliferation – not the ballistic missile program or Iran's support for regional groups.
  This is why Iran keeps the nuclear option open in the first place, so negotiations are made around this and not the missile program or Axis of Resistance. Iran's missile program is well beyond the point of negotiations, they have so many of these missiles that restrictions are impossible. The US and Israel are in direct conflict with various elements of the resistance at this time.
  Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi: 'While leaving the negotiations room, we encountered the U.S. Envoy, Steve Witkoff, and exchanged greetings out of courtesy, as is customary in diplomacy. Nothing content-related was said.'
  Yeah sure, and I'm a millionaire
  The discussions took place in a calm and polite atmosphere, and the American side did not issue any threats'
  Yeah the negotiations will take place in a clam and positive atmosphere, that's a prerequisite for having them in the first place. There's no need for any verbalised threats to be made, because the threat is obvious to everyone. While these negotiations took place in Oman, a US aircraft carrier with F-35 stealth jets was operating off of the coast of Oman. 6 B-2 Spirit stealth bombers are in Diego Garcia, 30% of the entire fleet, bombing Yemen and leaving large holes in mountains. There's no need to say anything there, both sides going into the negotiations understand this. At first Iran said that they would never negotiate under "maximum pressure" and that even negotiations around their nuclear program were off of the table, yet they are doing exactly that, negotiating about the nuclear program under maximum pressure.
  I'm glad negotiations are taking place of course, but Iranian media is not going to be fully open about this. At least we're not at the stage of scapegoating Pezeshkian for everything yet, when there are valid military and diplomatic reasons for the current course of events (he is a very easy scapegoat to be fair).
- 97,000 USD per Toman to 92,900 USD per Toman
  Toman per USD

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