Bulletins and News Discussion from December 16th to December 22nd, 2024 - Assad's Apology
Image is of Assad's presidential palace in 2013. There's more images of it in this article, though the words in it aren't worth reading.
Here is Assad's version of events. I like to imagine he's making one of those Youtuber apology videos where they sigh at the start and talk in a chastised yet somewhat defensive tone of voice.
As terrorism spread across Syria and ultimately reached Damascus on the evening of Saturday 7th December 2024, questions arose about the president's fate and whereabouts. This occurred amidst a flood of misinformation and narratives far removed from the truth, aimed at recasting international terrorism as a liberation revolution for Syria.
At such a critical juncture in the nation’s history, where truth must take precedence, it is essential to address these distortions. Unfortunately, the prevailing circumstances at the time, including a total communication blackout for security reasons, delayed the release of this statement. This does not replace a detailed account of the events that unfolded, which will be provided when the opportunity allows.
First, my departure from Syria was neither planned nor did it occur during the final hours of the battles, as some have claimed. On the contrary, I remained in Damascus, carrying out my duties until the early hours of Sunday 8th December 2024. As terrorist forces infiltrated Damascus, I moved to Latakia in co-ordination with our Russian allies to oversee combat operations. Upon arrival at the Hmeimim airbase that morning, it became clear that our forces had completely withdrawn from all battle lines and that the last army positions had fallen. As the field situation in the area continued to deteriorate, the Russian military base itself came under intensified attack by drone strikes.
With no viable means of leaving the base, Moscow requested that the base’s command arrange an immediate evacuation to Russia on the evening of Sunday 8th December. This took place a day after the fall of Damascus following the collapse of the final military positions and the resulting paralysis of all remaining state institutions.
At no point during these events did I consider stepping down or seeking refuge, nor was such a proposal made by any individual or party. The only course of action was to continue fighting against the terrorist onslaught.
I reaffirm that the person who, from the very first day of the war, refused to barter the salvation of his nation for personal gain, or to compromise his people in exchange for numerous offers and enticements is the same person who stood alongside the officers and soldiers of the army on the front lines, just metres from terrorists in the most dangerous and intense battlefields. He is the same person who, during the darkest years of the war, did not leave but remained with his family alongside his people, confronting terrorism under bombardment and the recurring threats of terrorist incursions into the capital over 14 years of war. Furthermore, the person who has never abandoned the resistance in Palestine and Lebanon, nor betrayed his allies who stood by him, cannot possibly be the same person who would forsake his own people or betray the army and nation to which he belongs.
I have never sought positions for personal gain but have always considered myself as a custodian of a national project, supported by the faith of the Syrian people, who believed in its vision. I have carried an unwavering conviction in their will and ability to protect the state, defend its institutions, and uphold their choices to the very last moment.
When the state falls into the hands of terrorism and the ability to make a meaningful contribution is lost, any position becomes void of purpose, rendering its occupation meaningless. This does not, in any way, diminish my profound sense of belonging to Syria and her people – a bond that remains unshaken by any position or circumstance. It is a belonging filled with hope that Syria will once again be free and independent.
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful. Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section. Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war. Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis. Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language. https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one. https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts. https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel. https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator. https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps. https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language. https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language. https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses. https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Yes, the situation is not positive. It looks as if the SNA, with Turkish close air support, will attempt to encircle the SDF/YPG positions at Kobani. There are also US forces located in Kobani on the side of the SDF/YPG.
This was always how SDF and the Kurdish project ended. Unless they worked with Assad to reintegrate and restore the splintered country they were always going to get betrayed and thrown to the Turkish wolves.
There’s a pathway here to a Turkish-Russian alliance backing jihadis vs the Israelis & Kurds & US.
Syria is such a fucking mess but, aside from the fact Russia spent most of a decade bombing the Jihadis, that’s the alignment that starts to make sense.
no way in hell is the US getting into a conflict with Turkey, this entire collapse is Israel-US led and designed. The jihadis are Israeli and American backed. You're getting the situation confused.
The US won’t shoot at Turkey but they’ll give guns to the Kurds. They already have been.
And the Jihadis were backed by Israel and were being bombed by Russia but Uno Reverso.
I think all Russia cares about in this is Tartarus. They dgaf who runs Syria so long as they get that naval base. And the Jihadis dgaf who supplies them so long as they get their caliphate. It’s a swipe right.
The US is already overextended arming Israel and Ukraine, they don’t have extra weaponry to give out.
The entire purpose of their efforts in Syria was to remove Assad to promote Israeli interests. They have accomplished this. Why would they further mire themselves in a proxy conflict with their own ally while they have ongoing wars with enemies to win?
When has the US ever seen a proxy conflict it didn’t want to engage in?
Yes the US is overstretched but the calculus isn’t affected since this conflict will stretch Russia too and kept Erdogan tied down, and also force a true break in Russia-Israeli relations which are still fairly good considering Israel is allied with the US.
Plus it’s the oil. That’s why the Middle East matters. The Kurdish zone and the bit near Jordan are where the oil is. They won’t let Turkey just take that.
Further, destabilization is an objective unto itself. If the region is destabilized they can divide and conquer, assert themselves as an “intermediary” to protect their interests, and prevent a regional power bloc from forming that is contrary to their interests.
The endgame wasn’t Assad. They didn’t care about Assad except insofar as he was in the way. The USA being anti- or pro- Assad was only ever a question of context.
Why would Russia be stretched? Their interest in Syria has withered to basically nothing. They weren’t baited into a proxy war when their ally was crumbling, they won’t be baited for some rando jihadists they don’t even like.
Losing bases is the opposite of being stretched, they are losing territory effectively. They are being grouped and consolidated without losses. Many will be returning back to Russia or going to the Ukraine front. This helps Russia in its war with Ukraine and helps Russia in the short term - no longer being weighed down by propping up Assad, but it will have long term geopolitical ramifications as Greater Israel is constructed and the west further cements its domination of the region.
Plus it’s the oil. That’s why the Middle East matters. The Kurdish zone and the bit near Jordan are where the oil is. They won’t let Turkey just take that.
Syria produces a negligible amount of oil, that's not what the syrian civil war was about in the slightest. The issue with the Kurds stealing the oil for themselves was that it deprived the syrian government of revenue and resources to fuel their war effort. It's not enough that Americans would stick their neck out and lose their most powerful ally in the region.
What happens if NATO members Turkey and US begin air strikes on each other's forces? Do they just call it a mulligan? If Turkey is removed from NATO because of this, that would be a silver lining (I don't think this will happen)
Matthew Miller's eyes would twitch as he smiles and talks about not knowing the situation on the ground and how accidents happen.
However that scenario is besides the point. The Americans positioned troops there to be part of the negotiations. And if they truly don't want Turkey to do this offensive then all they have to do is the same as last time: call Erdogan on the phone. If the offensive happens at all, it's because the US was at least ambivalent towards it (which may or may not happen because of the transitional period towards Trump's admin).
I mean, did Greece and Turkey not fight one another in the 70s invasion of Cyprus? NATO just kinda steps back. the US would absolutely leave the SDF to get shelled than risk a fracture in NATO. Turkey covers Russias southern flank and the naval access to the black sea, that's worth a lot more to them than the Kurds