Bulletins and News Discussion from December 2nd to December 8th, 2024 - May A Hundred Hazel Flowers Bloom - COTW: Russia
Bulletins and News Discussion from December 2nd to December 8th, 2024 - May A Hundred Hazel Flowers Bloom - COTW: Russia
Image is of one of the six salvos of the Oreshnik missile striking Ukraine.
The Oreshnik is an intermediate-range ballistic missile that appears to split into six groups of six submunitions as it strikes its target, giving it the appearance of a hazel flower. It can travel at ten times the speed of sound, and cannot be intercepted by any known Western air defense system, and thus Russia can strike and conventionally destroy any target anywhere in Europe within 20 minutes. Two weeks ago, Russia used the Oreshnik to strike the Yuzhmash factory in Ukraine, particularly its underground facilities, in which ballistic missiles are produced.
Despite the destruction caused by the missile, and its demonstration of Russian missile supremacy over the imperial core, various warmongering Western countries have advocated for further reprisals against Russia, with Ukraine authorized by the US to continue strikes. Additionally, the recent upsurge of the fighting in Syria is no doubt connected to trying to stretch Russia thin, as well as attempting to isolate Hezbollah and Palestine from Iran; how successful this will have ended up being will depend on the outcome of the Russia and Syrian counteroffensive. Looking at recent military history, it will take many months for the Russians and Syrians to retake a city that was lost in about 48 hours.
Even in the worst case scenario for Hezbollah, it's notable that Ansarallah has had major success despite being physically cut off from the rest of the Resistance and under a blockade, and it has defeated the US Navy in its attempts to open up the strait. Israel has confirmed now that their army cannot even make significant territorial gains versus a post-Nasrallah, post-pager terrorist attack Hezbollah holding back its missile strike capabilities. In 2006, it also could not defeat a much less well-armed Hezbollah and was forced to retreat from Lebanon.
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Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
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The Syrian government has reportedly rejected an Iranian offer to send two brigades of regular troops into Syria, out of fear that it would 'tarnish Assad's domestic support' and that it would 'provoke Israel to enter Syria'. Iranian personnel inside Syria, claims that Russia has assessed the situation, and it believes that an HTS takeover would not necessarily endanger their interests in Syria because they perceive HTS as 'anti-American'. Apparently, Iran has also assessed the situation, but came to the opposite conclusion, which has led to a rift between the two countries on the matter of Syria.
He also says Bashar al-Assad is much more receptive to Russian influence than Iranian influence, and that the Russians are currently involved in intense negotiations with him, while Iran is encouraging him to stand and fight, even offering to send forces. The analyst also claims that Iran is slightly annoyed with Syria, because Assad allegedly refused to open up the Golan front against Israel, and I quote: 'Assad has been less and less willing to spend money or attention on the Axis of Resistance, he became less cooperative, prioritizing Syria's own interests first, being enticed by economic proposals from the UAE and other Gulf States.'
The Syrian Arab Army says citizens of Homs and Homs countryside will witness 'large convoys of friendly units and equipment in the coming hours and days', and tells people not to take photographs or videos of the columns, in order to not put the lives of the soldiers at risk
The Syrian government has reportedly rejected an Iranian offer to send two brigades of regular troops into Syria
insane
This seems self contradictory?
claims that Russia has assessed the situation, and it believes that an HTS takeover would not necessarily endanger their interests in Syria because they perceive HTS as 'anti-American'.
He also says Bashar al-Assad is much more receptive to Russian influence than Iranian influence, and that the Russians are currently involved in intense negotiations with him,
Russia has no influence in that they don't have any forces to send, is the guy just gone into denial?
anyway, has assad even been seen, like wtf is going on over there?
This smells to high heaven, ngl
I have no idea what's true here, but just factually, Russia does have the airpower and troops to establish an Alawite rump state on the coast. It's been a while since I've listened to RWN, but they always said Putin would be fine with carving out an Alawite client state and letting the rest of Syria fall.
And the rebel guys who they've bombed for 10 years would be ok with it? With drones and stuff?
The rebels aren't really in Latakia. It's a primarily Alawite populated area, and the mountains on Latakia's eastern border make it easier to defend.
I guess Russia thinks these rebels will be too busy fighting themselfs, Hezbollah, Iraq and Israel to bother them.
But hezbollah won't fight them, if there is no alternative government, what's the point even. Iraq - same
Either someone of russia and Iran double dealing (to get lied to again(tm)) or assad been couped or just gone nuts (or just gone)
I'm not sure it's that contradictory. The Russians could be screaming at their phones trying to get Assad to do what they feel is best. While, at the same time, feeling that worst case scenario (HTS dominated Syria) is not a certain loss. Russia would not want to risk it, but at the end of the day a post Assad government could still let them hold onto Tartus.
It makes sense. Nobody thought the SAA would melt this hard, not even the Turks who greenlit the offensive. If HTS takes Damascus it becomes an independent actor in a sea of rebel factions. Proxy forces are not the same as puppets. And if HTS is an independent actor, then it's still up in the air what their priority is. Assuming Jolani isn't lying through his teeth when he promised a federalized Syria, he has to somehow bring in the presumed alawite remnants, the SNA, Al-Tanf, and the YPG/SDF onto the plan.
At that point the only reason the post-Assad government would have to end the russian port is if the US manages to press them and they feel that the only way to have a peace dividend is by caving 100% to the west.
being enticed by economic proposals from the UAE and other Gulf States.
IF this is true (big if), Assad is an even bigger moron than I thought.
I don't think Assad wanted to become a “puppet” of Iran, but in trying to preserve his “independence”, he may have literally thrown away all the afford to destroy the rebels and lost the war.