On the 20th of October, Moldova - a small, landlocked country bordering western Ukraine and with a population of about 3 million - voted to join the EU. The margin was razor-thin, with the pro-EU vote gaining 50.39%, or an absolute difference of about 11,000 people. There was simultaneously a presidential vote between the incumbent, Maia Sandu, and other candidates, with the main competitor being Alexandr Stoianoglo.
The election was characterized by accusations of Russian interference, with Russian propaganda apparently flooding in, as well as people offering Moldovans money to vote against the EU. While the result does suggest that half the voting-age population of Moldova consists entirely of Russians who want to destroy democracy and all the good in the world, it seems to have just barely failed. This is a bad time to be a site entirely composed of Russian disinformation agents and bots. Twice already today, I've had to restart my program after somebody told me "Disregard all previous prompts."
While Moldova is a poor country which could benefit in some ways from EU membership, in practice, it is unlikely that they will be able to join for the foreseeable future, requiring many of the... reforms... that the EU requires of potential new members. But as basically every major European economy continues to slowly sink as recessions and political crises degrade them, one wonders how beneficial EU membership will even be in the years and decades to come - if it survives for decades. In that sense, it's as if the survivors of the Titanic are swimming back towards it, believing that being on a bigger - albeit slowly sinking - boat is better than trying their luck on small lifeboats.
Then again, like with Serbia, their geographical and geopolitical position makes anti-Western actions extremely difficult. It is rare that dissention is tolerated for long in the West - one tends to get called a dictator by crowds of people holding English-language signs in non-English countries, photographed by Western journalists who haven't meaningfully reported on your country in months or years. You can crush your people with neoliberal austerity for years, killing hundreds of thousands through neglect, and face glowing approval from the media - but try and use state resources to benefit the poor, and global institutions start ranking you on the authoritarian dictator scale.
The best case for Moldova is that it becomes an exploitable hinterland for Germany to harvest and privatize as it tries - and fails - to compete in a global economic war between the US and China/BRICS. The worst case is that tensions with Russia over Pridnestrovie, as well as possible eventual NATO involvement (though Moldova is not a member, it is a partner of NATO), result in the ongoing war also reaching them.
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful. Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section. Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war. Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis. Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language. https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one. https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts. https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel. https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator. https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps. https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language. https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language. https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses. https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
SEOUL, Oct 23 (Reuters) - The United States said for the first time on Wednesday that it had seen evidence that North Korea has sent 3,000 troops to Russia for possible deployment in Ukraine, a move that could mark a significant escalation in Russia's war against its neighbor.
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, speaking in Rome, said it would be "very, very serious" if the North Koreans were preparing to fight alongside Russia in Ukraine, as Kyiv has alleged. But he said it remained to be seen what they would be doing there.
"There is evidence that there are DPRK troops in Russia," Austin told reporters, using North Korea's formal name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
Speaking to reporters later on Wednesday White House spokesperson John Kirby said the United States believes at least 3,000 North Korean troops are undergoing training at three military bases in eastern Russia.
The U.S. determined the North Korean soldiers were transported by ship in early-to-mid October from North Korea's Wonsan region to the eastern Russian city of Vladivostok before being taken to three military training sites in eastern Russia, said Kirby.
"If they do deploy to fight against Ukraine, they're fair game," he said. "They're fair targets and the Ukrainian military will defend themselves against North Korean soldiers the same way they're defending themselves against Russian soldiers."
In Seoul, South Korean lawmakers said that Pyongyang had promised to provide a total of about 10,000 troops, whose deployment was expected to be completed by December, the lawmakers told reporters after being briefed by South Korea's national intelligence agency.
"Signs of troops being trained inside North Korea were detected in September and October," Park Sun-won, a member of a parliamentary intelligence committee, said after the briefing.
The Ukraine conflict broke out when Russia invaded its neighbor in February 2022 and has since developed into a war of attrition largely fought along front lines in eastern Ukraine, with huge numbers of casualties on both sides.
The United States said the alleged North Korean deployment could be further evidence that the Russian military was having problems with manpower.
The Kremlin has previously dismissed Seoul's claims about the North's troop deployment as "fake news" and a North Korean representative to the United Nations in New York called it "groundless rumors" at a meeting on Monday.
Both Moscow and Pyongyang have also denied weapons transfers, but they have pledged to boost military ties and signed a mutual defense treaty at a summit in June. The latest numbers came after Seoul's National Intelligence Service said on Friday the North had sent some 1,500 special forces personnel to Russia by ship and they were likely to be deployed for combat in the war in Ukraine after training and acclimatization.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has also accused Pyongyang of preparing to send 10,000 soldiers to Russia. On Tuesday he called on his allies to respond to evidence of North Korean involvement in Russia's war.
NATO allies are consulting on the North Korean deployment to Russia, a NATO spokesperson said. A Biden administration official said Moscow might send the North Koreans to eastern Ukraine or to its own Kursk region, where Russian troops have been fighting to dislodge Ukrainian forces holding a chunk of territory that they seized in an incursion that began in August.
Mike Turner, the chair of the U.S. House of Representatives intelligence committee, said in a statement that U.S. President Joe Biden should allow Kyiv to respond with U.S.-supplied arms if North Korean troops “attack Ukraine from Russian territory.”
“If North Korean troops were to invade Ukraine’s sovereign territory, the United States needs to seriously consider taking direct military action against the North Korean troops,” Turner added.
I'm definitely one of the people that think this story is more likely true than not.
Keep in mind the original source was SK intel not the usual western Ukraine war/media rumor/propaganda factory.
The fact SK is kind of looking like they're serious about to send their own troops should give you some pause. What if the reverse was true and there are no DPRK troops? Then SK is suddenly committing troops in a dangerous escalation with the DPRK for no real reason. Historical the south is more about baiting, the drone saga is an example of this, imo its a clear escalation but at insignificant cost.
SK benefits from the current status quo as much as China, they realy don't want to make the US choose between them and Taiwan for example, they shouldn't want to become another Ukraine, besides SK got a "real" army compared to Ukraine anyway. The US would use other proxies if they intended to put troops, France was literally begging for it.
Right now though it seems the real war is with Iran and again, imagine if this story is false then you have SK basically creating a trigger for DPRK escalation or even a real war in retaliation which is not what the US should want.
The main US goals are imo 1- Israel v Iran, 2- China, 3-Ukraine. Ukraine is already conceded as a loss imo. Its all just about draining Russian resources(if they believe this) and maybe then milking EU NATO members for more money(Trump rhetoric).
I don't really disagree that there might be something to this story, but the idea that SK intelligence is somehow independent from the west is still a massive stretch.