Bulletins and News Discussion from August 19th to August 25th, 2024 - Our Mountains, Our Treasures - Child of the Week: Hassan LargePenis

Right until 2021 Bangladesh was considered a success story of export-led growth within a neoliberal setting. Around 80 per cent of its exports consisted of garments, and the growth in its garment exports was so rapid that it was even suggested that within a very short time Bangladesh would be meeting as much as 10 per cent of the world’s garment demand. Bretton Woods institutions were applauding Bangladesh for having lifted “millions out of poverty”; and even as late as April 2, 2024, a World Bank report was forecasting that the GDP growth of Bangladesh in the fiscal year 2024-25 would be 5.6 per cent, which by any criterion is a respectable figure.

The deterioration in Bangladesh’s economic fortune occurred when garment exports were hit by the pandemic; this was supposed to be temporary (whence the World Bank’s optimistic forecast for 2024-25), but has turned out to be more enduring, which is hardly surprising given the persistent stagnation in the world economy. At the same time the remittances by overseas Bangladeshis, another major source of foreign exchange for that country, also took a hit, undoubtedly for the same reason. And since Bangladesh relies on imported fuel, including for generating electricity, the rise in imported fuel prices after the start of the Russo-Ukraine war, has contributed to a serious foreign exchange shortage, given rise to prolonged power cuts, and also caused a rise in the price of power that has had a cost-push effect on the economy as a whole.

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If the slowing down of the growth of exports and remittances, along with its multiplier effects, is responsible for the growing unemployment that currently afflicts Bangladesh, the cost-push effect of the rise in the world price of oil and the depreciation of the exchange rate, is responsible for the acceleration in inflation it is simultaneously facing. A rise in the minimum wage, as a means of compensating workers in the face of inflation, is also out of the question within the neoliberal setting, for that would make holding on to its existing export markets even more difficult. And if such a rise in minimum wage is accompanied by a further exchange rate depreciation in order to prevent this rise from adversely affecting exports, then that would only further compound the problem, by further raising imported prices of fuel and causing a further across-the-board inflationary push.

Some would say that Bangladesh’s problem lay in its putting all its eggs in one basket, in the fact that it relied almost exclusively on garment exports alone, instead of having a diversified set of exports; others would suggest that Bangladesh should have used its success in garment exports to diversify its economy by developing a whole range of industries that cater to the home market. These criticisms however miss the point: in a neoliberal economy the State lacks the capacity to intervene; it cannot promote domestic industrialisation without some degree of protection of the home market, but any such protection is frowned upon by international capital whose support is required for making exports a success. Likewise, which particular exports would succeed in the international market is a matter decided upon by international capital and not the state of the country. Blaming the State therefore for the pitfalls of export-led growth under neoliberalism is entirely unwarranted.

Good practical lesson (if the exploitation of a country can be called a "lesson") in how the logic of neoliberalism leads to bad consequences, regardless of the intentions of those in charge. The choice isn't to try and be a good/bad leader that is nonetheless doing neoliberalism, as there's only one outcome regardless; the choice is whether you have the bravery and institutional/military support to defy neoliberalism and attract the wrath of imperialist countries, and hope you can withstand it.

I'm surprised it doesn't mention that the country is literally going underwater with climate change.

Bangladesh has already been hit with significant effects from sea level rise and intensified storms for years now, and it is projected to continue to be one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change this century.

(The country experienced another significant flood just this week.)