His model actually accounts for whether polls were taken before or after an event, and raises and lowers their impact and error margin based on that. Right up to the debate, his model was giving Kamala a <30% chance and it's only the inclusion of new polls since the debate that have moved her to 50%.

Oh my god those loop earplugs have been a lifesaver! Started using them about a year ago. Can't recommend them enough for anyone else suffering

I have a condition called misophonia. Just kill me instead. Please.

In this particular case, OP said none of the others met their needs. I would like to know what new functionality this one has to know if it's something I'm interested in or not. It's not a critique - it's helping me understand if I want to check it out or not.

Escape from Tarkov. Yeah, I'll be dead shortly.

I bought the official dock and have struggled a bit with it. It sometimes doesn't recognize my TV and has other connectivity issues that seem to only be solved by repeatedly restarting it. I had an extra HooToo adapter lying around at work and holy crap that thing is such an awesome adapter for cheap that connects to the TV or my monitors and peripherals so easy and I've never had issues.

The insurance is based on the cost to rebuild the home, which has also drastically gone up, so it makes sense that it has risen too

The expression you can't outrun your fork has hit me hard. I'm up 30lbs since I started running a decade ago, some of it's muscle, but most is I just need to eat better.

Vast majority don't, but I found after awhile that my favorite does (Ale8). That was on me - it's clearly marked.

I mean, that makes me even more skeptical. 108 volunteers tracked for that many sparesely populated vectors is 100% going to have hundreds of false positives just due to statistical noise.

Isn't this the one on I71 between Cincinnati and Columbus? I drive that route a ton and see it every time. There may be another on I75, but I don't drive it as much.

The extractors are hit and miss for me. The glue trick sometimes works but sometimes makes it worse. Drilling it out works, but requires another set of work to reattach and is a bit scary to perform.

Before doing those, I'd recommend jamming a rubber band on top to gum up the hole, then trying to unscrew it through the rubber band. It works often enough I this before I do any of the other options above. Quicker and less destructive.

I appreciate your original question and tact through these follow ups. I'm also having trouble finding primary sources in my quick search.

I grew up one county away from Middletown Ohio. It's nothing like the other Appalachian counties I've been in. It's like a very rural suburb of Cincinnati. You're 5~10 miles from a crap ton of big city amenities. I went there all the time for sports, and they came to my much more urban high school to play too. Yes, it's got some very large rural areas but it's not geographically isolated the way the rest of Appalachia is and has parts of it that are very suburban (vs truly rural).

It's so hard to figure out this stuff ... but as a guy into computers who was debating going into academia instead of the field, this is what I did ...

I took the money, but lived like I had only the academic salary and invested the rest. 15 years in, life is pretty cushy, I've found a relaxing niche in my field that I like my job, but it's basically optional as long as I stay willing to live like an academic. But there were definitely some pains to get here. I might quit and go back, I might quit and travel, or quit and do a start up, but I like my job a lot now so I'm keeping at it.

Not a bad video game, but I thought I had zero chance of liking it. I bought American Truck Simulator for $2 and it's such a good zone out video with something (radio/e-book/etc) on in the background. When I'm too exhausted to think, but want to be slightly more engaged than just throwing something on TV, it's now my go to right now. I bought it on the most recent steam summer sale and have 20 hours into already. All of it on the Steam Deck.

I work in IT for a company that helps patients get medications they need.

I physically prevent people from getting the medications they need.

538 also is running a brand new model by a new hire as when they let Nate Silver go, he kept the IP to the model that made them famous. Nate Silver just published yesterday a pretty detail list of reasons why you shouldn't trust the new model they developed. The original model has Biden at a 28% chance of winning, trending down - the 28% is assuming either polling error or that he does something to change the tide, both of which seem less likely than in the past so the model is probably optimistic.

I'm in management. I couldn't even give all my direct reports enough time if I tried to consolidate it down to one day, let alone partners, vendors, stakeholders, etc. Then add in all the project meetings, working sessions, etc ...

First game I've 100% in a long time. I absolutely loved this game.