Anyone @ Anyone @slrpnk.net

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It's an interesting article from a unusual point of view (and an unusual source).

From a macroeconomic point of view, a major problem for Russia’s civilian industry could be a lack of labour (in addition to what the article suggests regarding returning soldiers' psychological problems), as stated by several (Russian) economists. And even Russian media admitted that private companies in other sectors than military are operating at around 80% of capacity due to a lack of labour. According to the Russian consultancy Yakov and Partners, Russia could reach a worker shortage of 2 to 4 million people by 2030.

Another problem for Russia on the economic road to peace could be the banks. Sberbank and TVB, both state-owned, have been required by law to fund companies from the military complex at state-subsidised rates, not in the least because Russia’s central bank had to raise interest rates to 21% to curb a devastating inflation. Some other sectors (agriculture, construction) also benefited from state-sponsored lower-than-market rates (these public funds does not count as Russia’s official budget of 40% for military spending afaik).

According to official numbers by the bank of Russia, this led to an increase of profits for both Sberbank and VTB, but these loans -which essentially means that banks could 'mint' a large amount of money within a short time span - now amount to 16% of Russian commercial banks’ total assets. This poses a high risk to the banking sector, and it increases once the war is over and peace breaks out. Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina has warned already late last year that the Russian banking sector’s capital adequacy ratio has dropped by 2 percentage points in the course of 2024, reaching 12.5%. (Simply speaking, the Capital Adequacy Ratio is a metric used by regulators around the globe measuring a bank’s ability to absorb a sufficient amount of loss before they loose depositor funds.) Russia’s ratio is still above the minimum requirement under the so-called Basel III rules (which is 10.5% if I am not mistaken), but the drop is significant, meaning that Russian banks could be quickly running out of cushion to avoid insolvency once the situation changes.

Russia has also lost its most important economic lifeline, oil and gas, and Europe won’t come back as buyers given that the Kremlin is posing a threat to the continent.

And all this must be seen as even now, as the war is raging, the Russian economy, despite coming from a relatively low level, is already slowing down. The IMF expects a growth rate of 1.3% this year and 1.2% in 2026. Some time ago, Russian economist Natalia Zubarevich said that in Russia “there will be no collapses, but rather a viscous, slow sinking into backwardness.” Maybe she is right?

[Edit typo.]

Friendly reminder that the European Parliament lifted restrictions on MEPs, allowing them to meet Chinese officials again (the restrictions were introduced two years ago over human rights abuses in East Turkistan, a region which is referred to as Xinjiang by the Chinese regime). Maybe it's time to correct this?

Donald should not mess up with Denmark. They may not have the cards, but they have the eggs. Think of the eggs ...

In related news, Trump’s FBI Moves to Criminally Charge Major Climate Groups:

The FBI is moving to criminalize groups like Habitat for Humanity for receiving grants from the Environmental Protection Agency under the Biden administration.

Citibank revealed in a court filing Wednesday that it was told to freeze the groups’ bank accounts at the FBI’s request. The reason? The FBI alleges that the groups are involved in “possible criminal violations,” including “conspiracy to defraud the United States.”

In related news, Trump’s FBI Moves to Criminally Charge Major Climate Groups:

The FBI is moving to criminalize groups like Habitat for Humanity for receiving grants from the Environmental Protection Agency under the Biden administration.

Citibank revealed in a court filing Wednesday that it was told to freeze the groups’ bank accounts at the FBI’s request. The reason? The FBI alleges that the groups are involved in “possible criminal violations,” including “conspiracy to defraud the United States.”

Vance's cousin fought in Ukraine, and he is openly criticizing the VP and the U.S. administration for its Ukraine stance. This is highly relevant for Ukraine and Europe.

Meanwhile, as Russian attacks on Ukraine killed dozens over the weekend and destroyed Ukrainian energy infrastructure after the U.S. pulled much of its support from Kyiv, Trump defended Putin’s ramped-up attacks on Friday, as per Democracy Now:

President Donald Trump: “I actually think he [Putin] is doing what anybody else would do. I think he’s — I think he wants to get it stopped and settled, and I think he’s hitting them harder than — than he’s been hitting them. And I think probably anybody in that position would be doing that right now.

Just in case you want to call your rep ... https://www.house.gov/representatives/find-your-representative

I intended to find a petition on this topic

Maybe this is close to what you are looking for?

Petition No 0729/2024 by N. W. (Austrian) on the implementation of an EU-Linux operating system in public administrations across all EU countries

You may be interested in the EU OS for the public sector, Proof-of-Concept for the deployment of a Fedora-based Linux operating system with a KDE Plasma desktop environment.

There is also the Open Source Strategy of Schleswig-Holstein, a northern German state, that has unveiled an ambitious plan to break free from proprietary software dependencies by ditching Microsoft for Linux and LibreOffice.

I would say that it is absolutely irrelevant whether or not Putin agrees to anything, because he won't stick to his word anyway.

I feel somehow this 'news' is more an opener to promote the petition at the end of the article than anything else. Not that I oppose a new tax regime for the ultra-rich individuals, but there is no sophisticated content here imho.

I am not a military expert, so that's certainly a reason why I can't follow everything in this article. The Bruegel analysis the Economist mentions, however, says:

From a macroeconomic perspective, the numbers are small enough for Europe to replace the US fully. Since February 2022, US military support to Ukraine has amounted to €64 billion, while Europe, including the United Kingdom, sent €62 billion. In 2024, US military support amounted to €20 billion out of a total of €42 billion. To replace the US, the EU would thus have to spend only another 0.12 percent of its GDP – a feasible amount [...]

A significantly more challenging scenario for Europe would be an unlikely peace deal accepted by Ukraine. In such a scenario, Russia is likely to continue its military build-up, creating a formidable military challenge to all of the EU in a very short period, given current Russian production. The EU and allies including the UK and Norway would need to accelerate their military build-ups immediately and massively [...]

It also says:

A Russian attack on a European Union country is thus conceivable. Assessments by NATO, Germany, Poland, Denmark and the Baltic states put Russia as ready to attack within three to ten years 4 . It could be sooner [...]

Europe’s first priority is to continue supporting Ukraine – Ukraine’s experienced military is currently the most effective deterrent against a Russian attack on the EU. If Ukraine decides that a US-Russian deal to end the war is unacceptable – because Putin’s peace guarantees are not credible, for example – Europe is capable of providing additional weapons to Ukraine to ensure its fighting capacities remain as they are currently. Ukraine and the EU rely on some critical US strategic enablers, including intelligence and satellite communications. These are difficult to replace in the short term but there are substitutes if necessary [...]

Rapidly generating such increases [in military equipment and production] requires an extraordinary effort, though experience [in Eruope] shows market economies can do it [...]

Bruegel says -unsurprisingly- that Europe must significantly increase its defense spending, and also makes suggestions how this could be done best (amongst others, by replacing the US military-industrial base). Overall it provides a different picture than the Economist imho.

Yeah, the report clearly says that China's reliance on coal undermines this. Therefore, the bottom line for China doesn't look too good according to the Climate Action Tracker - China:

• Policies and action against fair share: Insufficient
• NDC target against modelled domestic pathways: Highly insufficient
• NDC target against fair share: Insufficient
• **Overall rating: Highly insufficient

China is as much as most countries on the wrong track.

You understood if you (have) lived in a country where someone else tells you what you 'prefer'. You never did, that is evident from your comments. And as I said, I wish you from the bottom of my heart that you'll never have to make such an experience.

@poVoq

I really wish you from the bottom of my heart that you will never be in a situation having to "choose" stability over democracy.

(In a personal note, you may read rule 4 of this community, "dehumanization.")

For leader of the "free world" you bet on China?

@poVoq

I would not only delete @bungalowtill's comments but ban the user entirely from the community. They literally wrote:

Another Ukraine project? Sounds like a fabulous idea. Especially for Serbians.

How else can you understand that if not as a call for violence? Such a comment is completely insane.

I fully agree. To be fair -and what was a major reason why I decided to post this here- is that Landsbergis criticized Orban and demanded similar actions already during his term as minister.

Former MEP Sophie in 't Veld published another opinionated piece in 'The Moscow Times' that is somewhat related:

History Will Judge Europe If It Doesn’t Stand Up to Putin -- [Archived]

... For decades, Europe comfortably and lazily bobbed along with the U.S., developing its internal market while the Americans ensured our security. The past three years have been a rude awakening — yet many European leaders still prefer to pull the pillow over their heads and pretend business as usual will suffice.

But Europe’s security is directly tied to Ukraine’s survival. If Ukraine falls, Putin will be emboldened to aim for new targets. Even if the war ends with a deal in which Ukraine’s sovereignty is preserved, Putin will undoubtedly use the time to regroup and prepare for the next attack. Analyses by various intelligence services in Europe have warned that he is already eyeing targets within the EU. These warnings must be taken very seriously. We should learn the lessons of 2014 and 2022 and act accordingly ...