I once ran a poll on Reddit asking why people switched to Linux. More people responded it was because Microsoft launched a new hated version of Windows than Microsoft discontinued an old beloved version. ie more people switched because Win 8 came out than Win 7 died.
In my family, my parents' generation either worked in IT and spent some of their careers writing macro-assembly on punch cards, or they have no coherent answer to the question "what is an operating system?" For this latter group, I'm going to be their sysadmin either way, and I no longer sysadmin Windows.
Everyone in my generation are pretty computer literate; I think I program in the most languages but my cousins all know what file systems are, could put together a household budget in Excel, know how to install software etc. A few of my cousins are in that "mostly use Windows for gaming and Ubisoft/EA aren't great companies" phase where Linux is still a bit inconvenient.
My niece, the only representative of her generation in my family, has a reasonable child's grasp on computers. She's used iOS and ChromeOS and Windows and Linux, so I'm pretty sure she understands the same hardware can run different software. Not sure how deep that understanding goes but she's a kid she has time to learn.
I dual-booted for a while & was on Microsoft Windows 7. I was using it less & less--usually just to play specific game. When MS Windows 10 was announced with an all new set of privacy invasive features on by default & 7 was going to be phased out, & as I got older with less time I wanted to spend with games, I decided to completely pull the plug on Microsoft & saying that there were enough games out there that worked on Linux (Proton infancy) that if Linux support wasn’t out of the box, I would just choose something else. The same will happen with some folks as 10 support is pulled--where if I thought 10 was too privacy-invasive, 11 + Recall is a nightmare.
Yeah, my hypothesis is that most of the folks who will object to Windows 11's bullshit enough to switch to Linux already have by now. There likely will be another bump in transitions at Win 10's EoL but not as many as who have switched since the rollout of Win 11 already.