The odds are certainly some of the best we can hope for:
Higher political engagement in general from Millennials and Gen Z than in the past.
It's a general election, so higher voter turnout in general.
Trump has been banging the drum of fascism (or at least authoritarianism), so people will turn out just to vote against him.
Republicans have been glibly attacking women's reproductive rights and medical procedures like IVF. Both issues will increase turnout.
They showed their ass when they acquitted Paxton.
He's not running against someone like Beto. He's running against a former football player, and if there's one thing Texans love, it's football. Cruz is already unpopular by virtue of being himself.
All those Conservative folks moving from California to Texas are moving to Florida, now.
All those Conservative folks moving from California to Texas are moving to Florida, now.
This was always mildly funny. Conservatives like to talk about democrats importing voters to turn the state blue, but from my point of view it was out of state republicans moving in keeping it red.
I fear that he's going to under-perform his party, but still squick out a win. People dislike him almost universally, but the GOP folks who don't respect him can still count on his vote and they know that he will kiss the ring to keep his job.
Also, I've decided "squick" is probably a good verb to use for most things that Ted Cruz does.