I have to believe this is just posturing for the people at home on the part of Zelenskyy. He has to know immediate membership of Ukraine into NATO means direct war with Russia leading to nuclear escalation, as Ukraine would immediately invoke Article 5.
Just saying "Ukraine will be invited to NATO once the conflict is over" is enough; it means whatever territory Russia gets to keep over the course of this conflict is it, because then Ukraine becomes NATO territory. It forces Russia to try and win it all (which they can't) because there won't be another invasion of Ukraine.
Yeah, that’s what I’ve been thinking too. Zelenskyy had to know that a NATO invitation right now is not realistic. I think it’s posturing to invite constituents in other countries to also act offended that Ukraine isn’t helped more, which then would be in the form of more war support, since it can’t really be much else. Can’t blame him for always taking all opportunities to get more support.
I think you're right. And I think NATO wants Russia to completely commit to a war they can't win until the government collapses and/or rethinks its global strategy.
Not really. He controls the media narrative in Russia, he can tell his people whatever he wants, and hypocrisy and contradictions has never been any problem for him. He has already long since altered his reasons for attacking Ukraine and succesfully fed the Russian population those reasons, and he will keep doing it every time reality threatens to undermine his lies.
If they offer an invitation right now, then this is no longer a war between Ukraine and Russia, it will be a war between NATO and Russia. How do you think that ends?
WW3 may be the last world war. No one is eager to start it.
It ends with Russia losing. As long as NATO makes it explicitly clear they will not attack Russian territory nor violate Russian sovereignty Russia has no basis to escalate beyond Ukraine. A nuclear war between Russia and NATO would result in the total destruction of Russia (and everything else of course). Russia wouldn't start one unless they felt their existence was threatened.
Russia wouldn’t start one unless they felt their existence was threatened.
I'm really sorry, but a helicopter loaded with green money seems more likely an exit from such a situation.
I hope you do understand that people in Kremlin are degenerate thieves (also mass murderers, of course), they very strongly care for their own lives, but "Russia's existence being threatened" is their last concern. After all, they've contributed so much to that threat that nobody in 1993 would believe it's even possible.
So - no, nukes won't fly because of a threat. They may fly after there's no integral Russian state, then there's a little chance that somebody really delusional in a right way takes control of some nukes. I'm not sure if something like this can happen.
Turkey is actually hands and feet up for accepting Ukraine, since Ukraine basically uncritically supports them on every issue important for them.
It's just that nobody is voluntarily signing up for a war if they don't have to. Not sure if we'll see NATO sink to ignoring a real attack on a member followed by article 5 or maybe pressuring such a member not to invoke article 5, seems unlikely, but frankly humans are the same everywhere.
Ah, I'm not impartial, but it's actually good news for NATO that Ukraine is not getting accepted. It would get a member in which high-ranking officials can be sold and bought almost openly, with mass media culture similar to that of Russia, with still quite chauvinistic and uneducated population, similar to that of Russia.
And to a lesser extent it's good news for Ukraine that it's not getting accepted into an alliance which doesn't seem sufficiently agile to accommodate modern threats. In terms of technical cooperation with NATO countries they don't really need it, and in terms of actual military participation - ah, there's a long way from an obligation to an action.
I was also under the impression that it was standard practice not to admit new NATO members currently engaged in a conflict. Quickly skimming through the literature though, doesn't seem like it's a hard and fast rule.