Iowa Caucus Megapost!
Iowa Caucus Megapost!
I'm putting this up early since it's likely I won't have time tomorrow.
Monday, 1/15, is the date of the Iowa Caucus, please direct all comments, links, and replies involving that here!
Edit - 5:36 PM Pacific, 7:36 PM Iowa time, 8:36 PM Eastern - MSNBC declares Trump the winner (shock!)
8:23 PM Pacific, 10:23 PM Iowa time, 11:23 PM Eastern. MSNBC declares Desantis #2, Haley #3.
90% reporting:
Trump - 51% - 52,912
Desantis - 21.3% - 22,140
Haley - 19% - 19,762
Edit Next Up - 1/23 - New Hampshire Primary!
For those unaware, a caucus is totally unlike a primary.
In a primary election, you show up to a polling place, you cast your ballot for your chosen candidate, the ballots get counted, and whoever wins is whoever wins. On to the next state!
A caucus is far, far more chaotic.
"The Republican caucuses will convene statewide at 7 p.m. local time (8 p.m. EST), and begin with the election of a caucus chair and secretary. Only registered Republicans may participate in the caucuses and only in their designated home precincts. However, Iowans may register or change their party affiliation on caucus day. Voters must turn 18 by the November general election in order to participate."
"There is no walking around the caucus room to form candidate preference groups. That voting method was a feature of Democratic caucuses from 1972 to 2020 but is no longer in use by either party in 2024."
"The binding presidential vote functions essentially like a party-run primary, only with very limited polling hours and no accommodation for absentee voting, except for a tiny handful of overseas and military voters. There are speeches on behalf of various candidates before the voting and a variety of party business after the vote. Individual caucus chairs are allowed to exercise some discretion in how to conduct the vote, but the voting is done by secret ballot and there is no set list of candidates. Voters must be given the option to vote for any candidate they choose. In the past, some caucus sites have pre-printed the names of major candidates and provided a write-in option, but typically, voters vote by writing the name of a candidate on a blank slip of paper."
The "limited polling hours" is key here, because if you decide to step out for a smoke, or to hit the bathroom, or grab a sandwich when the vote is called, you might not get counted at all.
In previous years this has led to accusations of under-counts, over-counts, and all other manner of shenanigans.
Here's the history of the past few Iowa Caucuses and how it related to the general election:
2016:
Ted Cruz - 8 Delegates, 51,666 votes
Donald Trump - 7 / 45,429
Marco Rubio - 7 / 43,228
Ben Carson - 3 / 17,394
Rand Paul - 1 / 8,481
Jeb Bush - 1 / 5,238
Carly Fiorina - 1 / 3,485
John Kasich - 1 / 3,474
Mike Huckabee - 1 / 3,345
2020:
Donald Trump - 39 Delegates, 31,421 votes
Bill Weld - 1 / 425
Sources:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Iowa_Republican_presidential_caucuses
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Iowa_Republican_presidential_caucuses
General Elections:
2016:
Trump/Pence - 800,983
Clinton/Kaine - 653,669
2020:
Trump/Pence - 897,672
Biden/Harris - 759,061
Sources:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election_in_Iowa
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_Iowa
I dont think anybody is excited because its not a real primary with real candidates. The fascists are running their first fake election in preparation for if they ever take power.
I don't think anyone is excited because it's a race to see who gets to lose to Trump by 30-40 points. :)
But as a political junkie, I'll follow it anyway... The big ramification is, if Desantis comes in a distant 3rd, the calls for him to drop out will be impossible to ignore.
A 3rd or worse finish in New Hampshire and he's done.
How the fuck trump has conned the American populace to still vote for him blows my mind. Literally cannot understand...
Well, here's one example...
Which makes no sense on the face of it since James Woods is a conservative...
But then that's exactly the sort of person who has "beforeitsnews.com" as their home page.
the only way any of this matters is if - in a few months - Trump is, somehow, stricken from the ballots in enough states to matter or is ruled as ineligible to run at all. or if he dies.
otherwise, he'll be the GOP candidate, and these also-rans will be as irrelevant then as they are now. if he chooses on as a running mate, it'll be based on their ability to kiss his ass, not really on the polls.
Yeah, we need more than Colorado and Maine to step up
well, since it's gone to SCOTUS, don't expect much movement until they make a ruling. Honestly, i expect them to realize that the only thing they can do is say, "it's a state issue," and kick it back down to the states to decide who gets on what ballot.
the only thing they might dip their toe in on is what is or is not "insurrection", although i rather doubt it because i don't know whether that's actually an issue being challenged.
Trump will be on the primary ballot in CO. The court put a stay on its own order.
66% of Republican caucus goers say Biden did not legitimately win the 2020 election.
59% of Republican caucus goers support a federal abortion ban.
The thing I dislike about the Iowa caucus is it has to be held in person for a few brief hours. The right to vote is sacred. but it's taken away from first responders like cops, firefighters, paramedics, and hospital employees that have to work during those hours. There are also retail and service worker employees that can't get off work during those hours. I hope Iowa ends the caucus and switches to voting for their primaries for future elections. The right to vote should never be infringed upon.
There are entirely too many states with caucuses. But the Democratic party in Iowa is doing theirs by mail, you just have to request a ballot:
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/iowa-democrats-new-caucus-process-work/story?id=106133768
63% of Republican caucus goers say Trump is fit to be president if he's convicted.
Ramaswany drops out, endorses Trump.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/15/us/politics/vivek-ramaswamy-drops-out.html
He endorsed Trump long before dropping out.
No one is running against Trump because no one can beat him. Trump is the definition of the gop and the American far right. They’re only running in the hope of either Trump dying before the election, Trump actually facing prison time and being forced to drop out, or getting a cabinet job.
Blergh.....
A race to see which gets the privilege of restricting my bodily autonomy and demonizing me as a threat to civilization. Fuck em all, I was paying attention to the last few races but now I am gonna insulate myself from the whole myopic process.
I'm really just in it for the inevitable Ron Desantis concession speech. :)
DeSantis just took second, per CNN
Literally popcorn buckets to count the vote. MURICA 🤣
Now, in fairness... each caucus site is run by volunteers.
Sure they wiped out the butter. Give them some credit
CNN calls it for DeSantis second place
Here we go! Too early for results just yet! Sooon!
Everyone's already calling it for Trump, and it's not even close.
NBC News live coverage just started for those without cable/streaming services:
Nice! The Caucus doesn't start for another hour or so, they must be doing set up stuff.