Like it or not, 2024 has arrived. We’re in for 11 months of hell. But the outcome is far from preordained.
The animating concept behind the Trump campaign will be chaos. This is what history shows us fascists do when given the chance to participate in democratic political campaigns: They create chaos. They do it because chaos works to their advantage. They revel in it, because they can see how profoundly chaos unnerves democratic-republicans—everyone, that is, whether liberal or conservative, who believes in the basic idea of a representative government that is built around neutral rules. Fascism exists to pulverize neutral rules.
So they campaign with explicit intention to instill a sense of chaos. And then comes the topper: They have the audacity to insist that the only solution to the chaos—that they themselves have either grossly exaggerated or in some cases created!—is to vote for them: “You see, there is nothing but chaos afoot, and only we can restore order!”
Democrats still don't know who they will be running against - since the polling needed to determine that are not "likely Iowa caucus goers" but "likely Trump jurors". We don't want to be like the Republicans in 2008 who were completely prepared to take on and tear down a Hilary Clinton nominee, only to find themselves fighting Obama.
Call me a pessimist, not not likely. Trump's narcissism is only dwarfed by his laziness. If he doesn't win the nomination, he may still run to try to stay out of jail. But he will absolutely not run if he's going to be pardoned and protected by a fascist leader of his choosing, and can relax into a kingmaker role with all of the prestige and none of the responsibilities.