Biden said to be increasingly frustrated by dismal poll numbers
Biden said to be increasingly frustrated by dismal poll numbers
www.washingtonpost.com
Biden said to be increasingly frustrated by dismal poll numbers
134 comments
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These polls are just his approval ratings, right (sorry, can't access the article), not a measure who is willing to vote for him in 2024? Yeah, people don't approve of you backing Israel when it's indiscriminately killing civilians and committing war crimes. Surprise, surprise. Doesn't mean they're going to vote for Trump over you, Joe, don't worry.
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As always:
The issue isn't people voting for trump, it's them not voting.
Because for some people, voting can take hours.
This is intentional because Republicans know depressed turnout is how they win. Unfortunately Dem party leadership just refuses to acknowledge that.
It's why trump beat Hillary, and can 100% happen again in 2024. The most important job of any candidate is getting votes. And just saying: "What are you going to do, vote Republican instead?" Isn't going to motivate enough voters to get to the polls.
The party is obsessed with stealing voters from Republicans, because that matches their preconceived notion that the democratic party needs to move to the right and gives them an excuse to do so.
Despite the fact that it's easier to get a non voter to vote than convince a Republican to start voting D.
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And Biden - who has won elections for the past 40+ years - really understands this.
Which is why he is frustrated.
We have to be honest. Things really aren't looking good.
Let's not fool ourselves. Trump has a large, dedicated base willing to vote for him.
If turnout is high, his chances of winning are low. But with a low turnout, his chances are high.
A potential Biden voter staying home, because of low motivation to go stand in a line for hours - that's the Republican winning ticket.
Which is why the conflict in Israel and stalemate in Ukraine are good for Trump, it de-energizes the Democrat base.
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It's not just turnout, turnout was much higher in 2020 than 2016 but even with that Trump gained 12M votes between the two. Millions of people who sat out the 2016 election looked at those four years and decided Trump deserved another go. But Biden got nearly 19M more than Hillary did, and more importantly, got those margins in the correct states to make an EC win out of it.
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Perfect explanation ☝️
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The party is obsessed with stealing voters from Republicans
What? Democrats don't need to steal votes. Democrat voters outnumber Republicans but a fairly decent margin. It IS as you say: they just need people to vote. Which is why Democrats generally back voting by mail and early voting that Republicans try to stop.
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Despite the fact that it's easier to get a non voter to vote than convince a Republican to start voting D.
Both of those are hard. Which is why Democrats focus on option three: convincing independent voters (who do not consistently vote D or R) to vote D this time.
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Depends on the poll.
There are multiple polls showing him down vs. Trump in multiple key states that he HAS to win to get elected.
Arizona:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/Georgia:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/georgia/Michigan:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/Nevada:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/North Carolina:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/Pennsylvania:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/Wisconsin:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/ -
Im sure Joe has a mountain of people to interpret the numbers.
Truth is, numbers are bad. Just the other day there was an abysmal poll that showed people trust trump more on everything but behaving well and abortion. Not by a thin margin. I don't know much about it, but It was reported on a reputable left wing network. It's really not looking good for him and for the Democrats that have no backup plan. The right have succeeded to portray him as a frail senile incompetent man with corruption issues. It's a failure of the democrat establishment.
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Polls vary but this sort of poll typically asks "If there was an election tomorrow..." So no, not an approval rating.
They're not a prediction of who will win in 2024, they're a snapshot guesstimate of who would win tomorrow (if the pollster got their methods right, which they don't, always).
But regardless, you absolutely should not be telling people not to worry. Trump voters will turn out (and predicted turnout is a huge part of pollsters' methods). If Biden's voters don't turn out, he might lose. And it would be for exactly the same reason Clinton lost in 2016: complacency.
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People on Lemmy are so confident in this sentiment, you guys are kidding yourselves so fucking hard. Many many people are not going to vote at all because of the Israel support. Things are clear for you, sure. But the blind assumption that this will have no effect is straight up delusional
Like, how is this the top comment in this thread? Just dismissing the possibility of this actuly having an effect, almost exactly mirrors the sentiment when the DNC snuffed Bernie
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My attitude is that if people who don’t want Trump, but also don’t like Biden are stupid enough to either not vote or vote third party, and it causes Trump to get re-elected, we as a nation will deserve whatever happens under Trump, but especially those stupid MFers. You can’t stop people from being utter fucking morons.
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I'm not voting for Joe solely because of his unwavering support for Israel.
I'll vote third party and whatever happens, happens.
If joe-supporters have a problem with it, they can support better candidates in the next election.
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Enjoy the Trump presidency then, someone who whole-heartedly supports the genocide even more than Biden.
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Whoever you vote for as a write it, it will be spelled “Trump” in the end.
I get your frustration, but this is the way our system works. You have to vote for the lesser of two evils, more often than not. I wanted Bernie in 2016, but I still voted for that cunt Hillary, because it was either her or Trump. Unless you’re certain your state will go Blue in 2024, a vote for a third party is functionally a vote for Trump. If you’re in a swing state, your protest will only amount to getting a person you like even less than Biden elected, and you’ll be part of the problems that creates.
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Seriously though. Can we stop pretending like being 81 isn't a liability? And a reasonable concern?
If Democrats had brains, they'd run a buff, tall white guy with progressive policies and a hot wife. Fascists follow strength and heteronormative values, so? Just use it against them. Trump only looks strong next to an 81 year old dude with a speech impediment. All love to Biden, but hang 'em up, bro, damn.
Guy can't let go of the game even though the game let go of him.
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To be fair, that one also has speech difficulty.
I'd like a refund on my government, it seems like it's just a bunch of out of date, moldy, spoiled, cheese of some kind.
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Let Hunter run. We already know hes drowning in poon and has massive schmeat. Trump couldn't possibly compete.
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You’re a poet, and you didn’t realize.
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Newsom?
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Jeff Jackson of North Carolina would be my personal pick. He's just too new. If he were 4-8 years further into his career I think it would be a slam dunk.
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Yeah, I think Biden should draw all the hate over Israel, take it with him and pave the way for Newsom to step up strongly against genocide.
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This is good, let's get all the bad ideas out of our system
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I feel like, in this highly politicized environment amplified by misinformation, echo chambers, and the horrors of social media, no incumbent president will ever again crack 50% approval
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You know what it would take? An actual thought leader. Someone who can make a persuasive argument and communicate a coherent message. Someone who can actually convince supporters to follow, who can challenge the bullshit and elevate the actual dissenting opinion.
But I've just rewatched The Newsroom, so I'm feeling particularly spicy about the quality of journalism right now. We let our politicians feed the echo chambers because consumers retreat to safety when challenged. Nobody argues, nobody calls out bullshit, nobody is challenged at all. Your identity is your team, and your actions are good or bad because of who you are. It is entirely upside down.
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Obama was I think their best case scenario in this era, he gave the party a powerful brand people could adopt. Trump is essentially that for the GOP now.
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Nah, I'm pretty sure after Trump is elected he'll be at 90%+ approval, according to mandated "fake news-adjusted" polling by OAN, Fox News and Newsmax, the last remaining news sources under the Trump Media Reform Act of 2025.
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It's Israel, stupid
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It's* Israel
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This is me caring about horse-race corporate news articles.
Did you hear about her emails?
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Washington Post so badly wanted to get into the "Dems in disarray" game that they hired an author away from Politico.
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Buttery males!
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Well, to be fair he did steal the presidency from Bernie Sanders and doom us all to pre-fascist neoliberal hell
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True
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Condoning genocide and telling us we are doing great when we can see we are not might be impacting those numbers. He needs to drop out. And Dems refusing to demand their party offer up someone else are complicit when trump gets reelected
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I don't particularly like him either, but if he doesn't run again, it becomes significantly easier for Trump to get reelected. Pick your poison. I'd rather Biden than Trump, so I want him to stay running and I'll vote for him again.
Maybe you should vote for a write-in candidate if you feel that strongly about it? Just know that whatever you write, it will spell "Trump."
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I don’t think Biden should drop out.
I also don’t think Biden should be the automatic nominee. There should be a full primary election, and whoever wins that (maybe Biden, maybe someone else) goes to the general.
Biden has done a bunch of good stuff, but he’s also woefully out of touch on an absolute FUCKTON of issues that non-boomer voters give a whole hell of a lot of shits about. I am so fucking done with gerontocracy.
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but if he doesn’t run again, it becomes significantly easier for Trump to get reelected.
Biden disagrees...
He just said a week or so ago that "at least 50 other Dems" could beat trump.
The polls disagree too, they show that Biden doesn't have a very good chance against trump.
We ignored those polls in 2016 to run an unpopular candidate, and trump was elected.
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A generic Democratic Perry cannidate would be a safer choice. Draft a blue state governor or something
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Why don't democrats run somebody better than Biden without all the baggage?
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Polls don't mean shit, they're wrong constantly and shift on a dime. Just write some good fucking policy and focus on the people
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Polls are actually pretty good. It's just that people only really notice when they are "wrong." At this time, they probably don't mean much when it comes to the outcome of the election because we are so far out, but that doesn't take away their value when it comes to taking the temperature of the American people.
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It’s just that people only really notice when they are “wrong.”
they also get wildly misreported and speculated on. this is the source of the idea that "the polls were wrong" and "trump outperformed the polls" in 2016. The real truth is that the polls said that clinton wins three times out of four, but you had media outlets like HuffPo reporting that she had a 99% chance of winning, and they established the narrative that trump was a clown and the election was a foregone conclusion. Then the coin came up heads twice in a row, which is what a 25% chance represents in intuitive terms, and while Clinton was doing her preemptive victory lap in BlUe TeXaS he actually won the election.
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Nothing can predict the election with 100% confidence, but polls are literally the best data we have to go off of. Sure, they can vary pretty wildly based on who the research agency is, but there's no better predictor of election outcomes than a good meta analysis / aggregate. If the research is sound and the poll results shift, that's typically a good indicator of actual voter intent.
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It is worth pointing out that a number of state democratic parties have declared the only primary candidate will be Biden. Others are denying some combination of candidates from being on the primary ballot opposing Biden.
So that kinda sucks, and something people should be aware of: attempts are being made to force Biden as the candidate by the party.
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Biden was already the forced candidate in 2020 so I don't know why people care now.
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2020 actually had debates and a primary process wherein Biden was yes, forced. Much like Hillary was in 2016.
But this time the DNC is trying to avoid a primary process altogether. Running any kind of reelection campaign is a liability for Biden.
Any amount of spotlight on Biden will probably damage his chances in the general, which the party is all to aware and afraid of.
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Well, Zionism is the new Nazism.
Maybe he should denounce Zionism.
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This is the best summary I could come up with:
After pardoning a pair of turkeys, an annual White House tradition, Biden delivered some stern words for the small group assembled: His poll numbers were unacceptably low and he wanted to know what his team and his campaign were doing about it.
He complained that his economic message had done little to move the ball, even as the economy was growing and unemployment was falling, according to people familiar with his comments, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a private conversation.
Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), who is running for the state’s open Senate seat, has expressed concern to allies that she may not be able to win her race if Biden is at the top of the ticket, according to people familiar with the conversations.
Adding to the challenging political landscape, Biden’s agenda hangs in the balance on Capitol Hill as his pleas to provide more aid to Ukraine and Israel are mired in partisan battles after the visit from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky failed to secure a breakthrough.
They routinely point to comments made by lawmakers, donors and pundits who declared Biden’s 2020 primary campaign over when he was routed in Iowa and New Hampshire before he went on to win the nomination and the presidency.
Only recently, though, have Biden officials started to scale up the campaign, which they launched in April, after months of warnings from top Democrats in battleground states that they were too slow to build out their operation.
The original article contains 1,575 words, the summary contains 247 words. Saved 84%. I'm a bot and I'm open source!
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support americans instead of genocide and your numbers will improve. this thing where you treat votes as a necessary evil and your real mission is to allow the wealthy to plunder the globe and murder the inconvenient has become really clear in the last few years.
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If I were to show a poll that indicates people hate heavy metal, but my poll criteria involved camping out next to opera houses, college theater groups, and retirement homes with the questions "would you rather watch a production of Lion King: The Musical or Corpsegrinder" I've technically polled multiple places, with multiple age groups and multiple ethnicities and backgrounds, but it's a very heavily skewed poll because of how I went about filling those.
Which is basically a long winded way of saying poll numbers rarely mean shit, Go Vote.
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Could legalize weed today and announce single payer plan that just needs house and congress control to pass. Could sweep the elections. But won't. Best he can offer is alienating supporters with weapon bans.
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Hasn’t there only been a single ‘one term’ president in about 50 years? (Trump). I just can’t see how a bloke who lost the last one of going to find new votes given the charges he is facing. Seems like clickbait
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Hard to post something less relevant. Thanks for contributing.
134 comments