Biden Administration raises social cost of carbon (used in regulatory decisions) from $51/ton to $190/ton
Biden Administration raises social cost of carbon (used in regulatory decisions) from $51/ton to $190/ton
Its new estimate of the economic impact of climate change could create the legal justification for aggressive new regulations.
The higher the number, the greater the government’s justification for compelling polluters to reduce the emissions that are dangerously heating the planet. During the Obama administration, White House economists calculated the social cost of carbon at $42 a ton. The Trump administration lowered it to less than $5 a ton. Under President Biden, the cost was returned to Obama levels, adjusted for inflation and set at $51.
The new estimate of the social cost of carbon, making its debut in a legally binding federal regulation, is almost four times that amount: $190 a ton.
It would be nice if these numbers didn't yo-yo with each administration. Even if one is pro-low price, it must fuck up long term plans tremendously.
(I am pro-high cost of fossil fuels, but want process to increase at a steady and predictable rate. $1 million in steps every 6 months is very different from $1 million in one step at any point in time.)
You are right, but these numbers are intrinsically affected by value-judgements - about how to integrate impacts over time, across different sectors, across rich and poor countries/communities and over probability of such impacts (risk aversion). It's not so much the science changing, but the values - hence political shifts. It would help if experts could separate these factors more clearly. For example people mention "the discount rate", but there is not just one - there is a (low) pure time preference for the whole world and higher rates for individuals and companies with finite lifetimes, also higher in rapidly developing countries (this does make sense, given a non-linear welfare function).
Thats huge!
Definitely, and still way below the numbers that have been showing up in the academic literature over the past couple years.
The new number will be put into action right away: the E.P.A. plans this spring to release final regulations to curb carbon dioxide from cars, trucks and power plants.
The impact on power plants should not be underestimated. This is a win, and hopefully we'll be able to ween ourselves off fossil fuels and coal more quickly if it hurts these power companies bottom line.
Hopefully this will also move into the private airplane business, and cruise line industry.
Cars will take more time, because we have to cycle the old fossil fuel engines for newer cars that just aren't cost effective right now. Not to mention, some people will want to keep their gas powered car.
Honestly?
I'd totally go on a sail and solar powered cruise line. That'd be cool as fuck.
My gas powered car is paid off, any electric car isn’t, and any electric car with equivalent space for my family and bimonthly Costco trips and equipment to make the ride comfortable would run me $50k. Guess which one I’m driving for the foreseeable future.
Does any one have a link to the estimation process?
So the "social cost" is magically whatever they need it to be? I guess the next republican administration lowers it to about $3.50...
It's an estimate of how much damage a given amount of emissions does. The number has risen as we have gotten a better understanding of how damaging greenhouse gas emissions are
Seems more likely that it's policy driven, not science driven. I'd like to see the peer-reviewed science that quadrupled the number.
I wonder how this will affect the price of diesel. From what I’ve read from farmers that is the main thing driving the price of food up. Whether it’s meat or veggies. It takes lots of diesel to run a farm, and this could have serious implications for our food prices.
I just want to be clear that as an outdoors person I also would like a cleaner environment, but I also have to eat. I eat what I kill. So, it’s important that the environment be clean. But, I can’t live off meat and veggies that I kill / forage.
Yes but climate change will have dramatically negative effects in agriculture in the long term. The cost of food can’t always be a silver bullet objection to climate regulation. We can undoubtedly find ways to grow food with less carbon cost if there is economic incentive for it, and long term impacts need to be considered even more than short term when we consider how bad the projections are.
As a family of 4 our weekly food bill has gone from 150 a week to around 250 plus a week for the same foods in just a couple of years. That’s a thousand dollars plus or minus a month over the past 3 years.
I know that food prices may not mean much to you. But when you have kids you can’t say “oh I’m out of money so everyone is eating ramen”. Whether you like the fact that food is a consideration for me or not. I can guarantee that a lot of other people are concerned about this as well, and the right will use it as a talking point.
Then when you add in the fact that electric tractors aren’t a thing. Then the blame falls on the government. Also, I’m not saying that the rest of it is bad. Even though my power bill is over 400 a month in the summer, and my 1200 a month rent is now 1800 a month in 3 years.
But yeah I guess I’m crazy to worry about food and other things for my family. You’re right though. I should just suck it up and plant trees who’s shade I’ll never enjoy using my family as fertilizer.
Also, here is something I’d like to share. This guy is talking about beef, but it applies to all agriculture. Veggies maybe even more.
