5d ago

If Trump fires the Fed’s Powell ‘both the currency and the bond market can collapse,’ according to Deutsche Bank

If Trump gets his way and removes Jerome Powell as chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, the market reaction would be swift and brutal, Deutsche Bank’s George Saravelos argues.

It could collapse the currency and bond markets, he says in a note seen by Fortune. Polymarket puts the chances of a Powell ouster at 19%.

“We consider the removal of Chair Powell as one of the largest underpriced event risks,” Saravelos says.

49 comments

I mean shit, the entire global economy almost collapsed because a boat got turned sideways.
Whatever this would represent, catastrophic isn't enough of a word for it.
- which also led to one of the classics:
  I Freed This Handsome Cargo Ship From The Suez Canal And Now He's Stuck In My Butt
  Chuck Tingle is a prince among men
  
  “I’ve been so worried about losing my old life that I forgot about all the exciting new chapters that lay ahead. I could’ve never seen Ever coming, but now that he’s here, I’m thrilled by what else lies on the road ahead.”
  Well then it was all worth it, wasn't it?
"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."
Given how the markets have at this point have elected to completely ignore Trump it wouldn't surprise me if the sky falls for two days and then the world collectively decides to ignore and forget the shit show.
- Part of that is high frequency trading. Computers that blindly trade with other computers. It has a stabilizing effect on the market because it's divorced from reality.
  But there's the risk. It's divorced from reality.
  So far, when things go bad the Fed has stepped in to halt trading for the day.
  
  The "fed" doesn't halt trading, https://www.investor.gov/introduction-investing/investing-basics/glossary/stock-market-circuit-breakers
  
  I hate that we evaluate the health of the economy by the growth in the stock market.
  The stock market would continue growing until the power grid failed if every human on earth just evaporated into mist.
  Actually it would probably break before that when one of 6 people’s two factor authentication timed out and the computer no longer had access to their accounts.
- My thoughts exactly. The billionaires control enough of the markets that they will force a correction and everyone will buy back in... and the billionaires will get even richer.
  <heyiveseenthisone.png>
he will say Powell is fired, buy lots of bonds and stocks, and then say just kidding, and sell again
and you, Duestche bank, helped him and the russians do it via laundering money for him.
- Duestche bank
  Deutsche Bank
  
  Douche Bank
Well, the USD as far overrated, so any correction is a) needed and b) painful.
The only hope is that a breakdown of US economy will be remembered as made by Trump and the GOP.
what is the upside for MAGA of devaluing USD?
- American manufactured products are cheaper on the world market.
  Raw resources are more expensive to import so source everything form the US
- Cheaper for the 1% to buy all of our stuff to fully become a corrupt nation of oligarchy.
- They want to destroy America because corporate centrists already destroyed their rural communities.
- Easier to pay down debts made up of worthless money (if you have money that isn't worthless). If you had €100 in November 2024, you could pay off $100 debt. Right now you only need €85 to pay off $100 debt.
- Stock market numbers go higher
- making more money is good, but lowering the worth of your workers is another way to afford more people
So...what do I buy puts on, to profit from this?
- "you want to short the federal government??? yeah we will take your money high five bro"
  I think I've seen this movie.
  You can buy inverse ETFs on bond market benchmarks. Unlike stocks though, the interest rate will tick up as bond demand (price) goes down, so the dips tend get muted as people gobble up anything over 5%
- SPY or related index etfs
  
  If you assume the entire stock market won't collapse. Half those companies aren't just inbred, they're codependent.
- Yes
- 1000 units of gold-pressed latinum
I'd allow it so that people will finally realise.
- People will cheer the low interest rate on their plummeting dollar value debt.
- Realize what? They'll say "fucking Biden, look at the state he left the country"
Been waiting on Trump's temper to get the best of him. You know the people around him are manipulating him in every way possible to avoid firing Powell. This is a thing he can't lie, cheat or walk back. Most of all, it would instantly devastate the rich. And then the rest of us of course.
Great article that hits hard on a subject I've been thinking on.
Do itttt
I live and work in a third world country. The currency here is weak against the dollar.
I do something think if the dollar crashed to the value it is in this country, I could pretty quickly pay off my families debts.
We already knew this, it's just matter of time.
Well what's another lifetime if I get to pay enough of the house that my grandchildren can probably rent it for a lower monthly installment?
How can it collapse the currency market? If one currency goes down in value the other goes up. Currency traders earn money either way they thrive on volatility.
He probably means the USD is going to drop and that will have severe consequences for the world economy. Since the US is a net importer. And most debt in the world is held in USD.
Considering I've lost all faith in fiat currencies, including the US dollar, I no longer measure my net worth in it, this would be quite good for my gold and monero holdings. Because those are stable assets, not controlled by the whims of any central bank or government.
- Unless there's a bug in Monero that nobody has discovered yet, which would explain why it keeps losing value relative to bitcoin.
  
  Bitcoin seems to change value more dramatically than Monero, from everything I've seen. That works both ways, though.
  
  While that is a possibility, there are a lot of incredibly intelligent people who do their absolute best to make sure that that does not happen.
  And just like Bitcoin, upgrades are only deployed after they have been thoroughly vetted and torture tested to hell.
- I'd hesitate to use Monero as an investment, or for long-term storage.
  Because of its nature, lots of powerful people (if they were aware of it) would be terrified of it and do everything they can to kill it, including legislation. I just don't trust governments to not destroy it if it ever became popular enough.
  It might be stable now, but all it takes is some purposefully stifling regulations from EU and US...
  
  Which is why I hold it as a long-term store value. The harder they regulate it, the more the strizend effect happens.
  I want them to be fucking terrified. I want them to wake up at night in cold sweats screaming their fucking heads off because that's how afraid they are. I want them to have stress-induced heart attacks caused by Monero.
  That would be success to me.

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