Russia might use Belarus to attack the Baltics, but Belarusians will not do it, Tsikhanouskaya says

Lukashenko's smart enough to know that he doesn't wanna rock the boat when it comes to public support. He only ever goes along with Putin JUST enough to avoid Putin deciding to just outright annex Belarus, but stops short of anything that would make the domestic situation untenable. Remember when he did a public presentation on the Ukraine war with a map that showed the Russian plan to continue the advance into Moldova? That probably wasn't an accident. It spurred the West into taking things seriously.

To stay in power he needs Belarusians to believe that any attempt to oust him will result in Russian soldiers putting the revolt down, BUT he also needs to keep Putin from ACTUALLY expanding Russian control of Belarus. He knows that if Russia wins in Ukraine then the Baltics are next, and that Belarus will get dragged into that. So he has to play nice with Putin but doesn't want Putin to actually win.

I did not know that, thank you. I'll avoid using them as a source.