Bulletins and News Discussion from September 23rd to September 29th, 2024 - The War In The North

Image is of a Hezbollah missile attack on a military camp west of Jenin.

The situation between Hezbollah and Israel is rapidly escalating, with massive bombing campaigns on southern Lebanon by Israel predominantly on civilians (as the tunnels in South Lebanon are mostly unreachable to the Zionists, just like in Gaza), while Hezbollah and its allies respond with missile attacks predominantly on Israeli military facilities. Israel is spreading an evacuation order to the residents of southern Lebanese villages while also bombing their routes of escape and civilian infrastructure, similar to a terror tactic used widely in Gaza.

Northern Israel is currently under military censorship to hide their losses, so we get very little information other than what the Resistance provides and what videos and images get through the censors.

I don't know if Israel will dare a ground incursion soon, but it seems fairly likely in the coming days or weeks.

Please check out the HexAtlas!

The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.

2.3K

You're viewing a single thread.

2.3K comments

Moody's cuts Israel's rating, warns of drop to 'junk'

Sept 27 (Reuters) - Moody's on Friday downgraded Israel's credit rating two notches to "Baa1" from "A2" and maintained a negative outlook amid escalation of the conflict in the region with Lebanese armed group Hezbollah.

"The key driver for the downgrade is our view that geopolitical risk has intensified significantly further, to very high levels, with material negative consequences for Israel's creditworthiness in both the near and longer term," Moody's said.

The downgrade kept Israel's rating three notches into investment grade. However, Moody's warned that uncertainties over the country's security and its longer-term economic growth prospects "are much higher than is typical at the Baa rating level." A drop below that level would mean Israel would lose its investment grade rating.

"The ratings would likely be downgraded further, potentially by multiple notches, if the current heightened tensions with Hezbollah turned into a full-scale conflict," Moody's said.

Typically, a loss of investment grade rating means a spike in the cost of servicing debt, and it could force some investors to sell their holdings - further pressuring lower the market price of Israel's bonds.

Rating agency Fitch downgraded Israel's credit rating to "A" from "A-plus" last month, and kept the rating outlook negative.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/moodys-cuts-israels-rating-warns-drop-junk-2024-09-27/
- i wouldn't put any trust in these ratings agencies, they've downgraded Japanese and U.S. debt and nothing happened, Japan was able to keep interest rate where it wanted it.
  
  they rate junk CDOs as AAA and sovereign bonds with no default risk at less than AAA, they are completely paid off and don't know what they are doing. its not a question of whether Israel will be able to meet its shekel debt but whether shekel will be worth anything (exchange rate risk). so if a foreigner buys Shekel Sovereign debt at $1=4 ILS, the exchange rate depreciates to $1=5 ILS, if the interest rate isn't high enough they'll lose money when they sell, thats the only risk.
  
  but given that the US has always been with Israel, a crash in the value of Shekel won't happen.
  
  another example would be Icelandic Krona where the Government was able to pay off Krona debt, but they forced the foreigners to only be able to sell Krona at a fixed lower than market exchange rate, you get your Krona but you can't get all your Dollars.
  
  this isn't to say Israel isn't in trouble, it is but not with its own debt.
- Permanently Deleted
- Tfw you have to show your Chinese immigrant parents your Baa1-average report card.

You've viewed 2285 comments.