If Lemmy and Mastodon continues to get popular, we will eventually get Instance wars.
If the descentralization of social networks continue, we will have to prepare for the eventual rise of the instances wars, where people will start to fight about which instance is better and which one is weird to be in and so on, but that's for the future of us all.
And that's exactly what's supposed to happen. Instance wars and eventual defederation and fragmentation are important moderation tools, and will progress the culture and feel of instances and regions of the Fediverse. Many instances will form federated cliques that are highly connected and have similar vibes and cultures, and some will be federated with multiple cliques, showing users a variety of cultures and situations.
If the Fediverse reaches a large enough number of people, it can support multiple independant cliques, and enable users see entire mini-universes with different communities and vibes.
The big problem is going to be when someone decides to start spamming and vote manipulating with bot populated private instances that automatically re-spawn themselves under a new name whenever they are blacklisted. Eventually, the standard will have to move to whitelisting over blacklisting, and once that happens the whole premise of federation starts to fall apart.
The biggest problem with lemmy and decentralization right now is that for optimal performance you need to spread out the load relatively evenly between instances. The problem is that users tend to go where other users are (otherwise why go there) and that naturally leads to clumping on one or few instances which causes it to overload.
The way to solve it is to avoid having generic "anything goes" instances and instead have instances be focused on a specific topic. For example, have gaming instance, a personal finance/investing instance, all things home ownership and improvement instance, etc. You can have multiple communities per instance as long as they stay within the same general topic. This way users will naturally spread out by subscribing to different instances based on topics they're interested in. And that will solve the performance issue we're seeing with lemmy.world or other popular instances.
"Instance wars" sounds like the way "the consequences of my own actions" will be framed at a point.
The far right instances dripping with hate, bigotry and recycled propaganda will be in an "Instance war" with the mainstream instances talking about regular human being stuff - stuff like beans.
Grab your samurai swords, mall ninjas... and inventory your powdered eggs, theocratic fascist doomsday preppers...
The instance wars are coming for your unvaccinated, homeschooled, incel butts!
What if there was an app that let you log in to multiple lemmy accounts at once, aggregated the lot into one seamless feed, and used the relevant account for each interaction? Maybe even going as far as to automatically cross-post any submission to duplicate communities and aggregate that too.
This will likely follow a similar pattern to email, since it's starting from a very similar position.
At some point people will begin to assign identities to instances and imagine (rightly or wrongly) that being on an instance says something about a person. People do that with cars, shoes, and yes, even email domains.
From a technical perspective, right now Lemmy is as anonymous as can be — I've yet to see an instance that requires ANY kind of verification. I didn't need to provide an email address, phone number, or any other identifying information to sign up. Didn't even need to solve a captcha. I just choose a name and set a password and BOOM! I was in.
Once upon a time, email worked this way, too. Then came the spammers, scammers, and other bad actors, and this was deemed untenable. Nowadays, any email provider that allows anonymous signup is likely to be blocked by most of the email-using world. You won't be able to use them to sign up for other services, and you might not even have your mail accepted by other providers.
This will definitely become a problem as Lemmy becomes popular, and instance admins will need to crack down, lest they be overrun and defederated by the rest of the world.
I'm not sure what the answer is. This is a problem that has not been adequately solved, IMHO. A few bad apples spoil the bunch. That's been true since long before the Internet.
The important thing here is to get back to social networks and away from social media. The important entities here are the humans, not the memes or the money or the uplems or whatever we eventually call them.
Humans connecting with humans in ways that advance our collective well-being is the promise of social networks that Facebook and Twitter started. Once they saw how many users they had (and the bills for hosting and coding) they got hyper focused on making money.
Hypothetically we can avoid that fate here by having the job of hosting and coding spread out among many. Especially if we also come up with a way to crowd fund the costs of hosting and coding.
This very much feels to me like the beginning of a Civ game, where we're all fresh nations with different starting conditions that are exploring our territories and building up armies....
The first schism is gonna be fairly dramatic, I'll bet.
I have been running a Mastodon instance since like 2016/17 and this has been quietly happening for the entire time I've been on the fediverse. (I can't check the exact date right now as I'm in the middle of upgrading it.)
Do you want to be in the Anime Girl Who Posts Nazi Memes Fediverse? How about the Queer Furry Fediverse? Or maybe you'd rather be in the Mocking Shitposts Fediverse? Perhaps you want the Everyone Has A Photo Of A Human And Thinks Federating With Facebook's Activitypub Is Actually A Good Idea Fediverse? Or how about the TERF/Gender-Critical Fediverse? Or the "Standalone" Social Site That Is Actually A Fediverse Instance With Federation Disabled And The Credits Removed In Violation Of The Source License?
Some of these Fediverses will happily talk with others. Some of them will rapidly defederate from others as soon as they encounter a place that clearly belongs to a Fediverse they are incompatible with. Some of them quickly get defederated from the Fediverses they are incompatible with. Some of them look at the #fediblock tag, some to keep aware of places worth pre-emptively blocking to make a chill place to talk, some to look for fellow people who have been cast out of someone else's chill zones.
It has already started :) I'd say around 60% of major instances block exploding-heads, burggit and/or lemmygrad. Lemmygrad and EH in turn defederate a shitton of instances as well due to ideological reasons. Most "civility" or "law" related instances block piracy instances. The dbzer0 piracy instance blocks anything seen as too right-wingy cuz the owner is an anarchocommunist or something. LGBT instances are blocking & promoting for other instances to block instances that aren't too friendly to LGBT or are simply not moderating or even promoting homophobia & related topics. I actually made a tool called federation-checker.vercel.app/ that checks where an instance stands in the federation "war", so I know what instances to register onto if I wanna see some content that has been blocked by the instances I'm on.
Isn't it already? Lemmygrad, exploding-heads and other extremist instances have already been defederated. But the main feature is the federation itself, which also creates powerful alliances between instances with common values. Platform-wise, it will be just a matter of difference of use and leaning, but federation alliances will work the same
Each participating instance must choose a "side" from a selection of political systems, religions, world views, etc. whose views it (the instance) has to represent.
The war takes place in a community that is unlocked for all instances, or on a separate instance.
All instances are listed and numbered.
The opponent allocation is then done by a /random bot number generator.
The evaluation is then done by a /Poll of all instances.
The loser is kicked out and the new opponent for the winning instance is chosen again by /random bot.
I truly hope this type of hierarchical thinking can stay fun and not create the kind of grating pomposity that pervades every bloody animalistic thing. I want us to grow beyond childish competitiveness.
Can we just go back to BBS where you have dial in with your land line to post on a board? The difficulty of use acted like an awesome protection from any community growing too large too fast and was super easy to moderate. I just want to pull my socks up to my knees, yell at the clouds, and dial in to the NG BBS...
So I shouldn’t make a post asking which is the best lemmy community under 1k? I am tempted to create like 10 accounts and just hang out in these local “slow” communities.
I really hope that it'll be something we'll be able to avoid. We're all on the same federated system, we don't need to do this pointless "I would listen to you but you're a instance.lemmy.com user" unless they're from an instance that supports hateful content.
It's so dumb, yet it's so natural that even knowing it's dumb sometimes people end up devolving into tribe wars by complete accident.
And then some do it because it's the easiest way to get people to do what you want to them to do. It's definitely best to try to keep it in the back of your mind as much as possible to avoid falling into the habit.
I think it would be better if everybody selfhosted a instance of their own. Make it super hard and complicated to find communities but, keep things nice and clean
Mastodon is on a decline already. It is different than, say, Lemmy. Mastodon's contents are produced mainly by mainstream content creators, and they do not migrate from Twitter its counterpart.
I actually had an idea with instance wars but for like photoshop battles or some other competition where the two versions of the community battle each other to one up each other. Only problem is I am not sure what sort of competition to make.
I think we'll gravitate to our own tribes. R/Donald fans will hang out on one instance. BernieBros on another.
Decentralisation means we'll be in our own bubbles more.
What was good about Twitter and Reddit was that it was the Agora, the commons, where you bump into others who really need you to see their cats or Excel art while you browse for your own picadillos.
I'm counting the days until all of the "Major" servers (sh.itjust.works, beehaw, lemmy.world, etc.) have a struggle session over whether to defederate from "tankie" instances (lemmygrad.ml, and ironically since the devs are MLs the dev instance lemmy.ml).