Vance’s Links to the Project 2025 Leader Complicate Trump’s Attempts at Distance

He doesn't even have a stable name; so far as I can tell.

Interviews I've seen of people that knew/know him say he used to be reasonable but went off the deep end.

But Vance just might lose Trump the election.

Vance is a toady who will do whatever Trump wants him to do. That is perhaps the most important thing to Trump, loyalty. As for the election, evidence suggests that Trump isn't worried about losing votes or even losing the election. He keeps saying, "We don't need the votes." Why on Earth would a candidate repeatedly tell his supporters that he doesn't need their vote unless he thinks he's already got the election sewn up?

My fear is that he thinks he does. Rolling Stone recently reported that they have identified at least 70 pro-Trump election deniers who hold positions as election officials in battleground states.

Certification of election results is what legal experts consider a “ministerial task,” and one required by state and local law. But as Trump’s lies about the 2020 election have taken hold, Republicans nationwide have decided that certification provides them an opportunity to hear fraud allegations — and refuse to officially count their local votes. Republicans have refused to certify election results at least 25 times since Trump lost the 2020 election to President Joe Biden.

It seems clear that they have been practicing and working out the kinks so that this election they will be able to tie things up long enough for the Trump aligned SCOTUS to step in and hand the election to Trump.

It has also been reported that three of the five members of the Georgia State Election Board are election deniers that are actively trying to give the state's votes to Trump.

Earlier this month, the new three-member majority tried to call the election board into “emergency” session to cram through changes in state election regulations, at a time when they knew that the other two board members, including its chairman, were unable to attend. Those three board members were warned by the state attorney general’s office that no such emergency seemed to exist, and that the sudden meeting violated the state Open Meetings Act. They were told that any action they took would not be considered legitimate.

They met, and took action, anyway.

When Trump says he doesn't need votes, he's saying the quiet part out loud. He thinks he has the fix in and really doesn't need votes to win.

I don't think there's an easy path to replacing him after the nominating convention. Vance could drop out, and Trump run alone, with any VP then subject to Senate approval.