Why Ukraine could be just 15km from forcing Putin to make an impossible choice
Why Ukraine could be just 15km from forcing Putin to make an impossible choice
Progress in Ukraine's counteroffensive has been slower than expected, but its forces are building momentum in the country's south, and could be just 15 kilometres away from a major prize.
Over the past few weeks, anonymous "Western officials" have been speaking to US newspapers, giving bleak assessments of Ukraine's counteroffensive.
They say teenagers are impatient and impulsive with short attention spans, they want what they want and they want it NOW, with shortcuts that bypass the blood, swear and tears.
What they usually fail to say is that so many adults fit that profile with seemingly no self-awareness whatsoever, and a plague of them are in government.Adults in a position of authority and responsibility, yet with that level of hypocrisy and immaturity, is a thousand times worse than any of the hollow criticism they might care to throw at any of "those impatient teenagers".
"Back in my day things were..." Let me stop you right there. Back in your day things were just as shit as today, no better. You mediocre creature in a position of responsibility, you.
Those leaks are just officials pointing the finger trying to dodge blame in case things don't go well. At least according to Michael Koffman.
This is the best summary I could come up with:
When Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba last week told critics of his country's counteroffensive to "shut up", accusing them of "spitting in the faces" of frontline soldiers, it was obvious who his fury was directed at.
Over the past few weeks, anonymous "Western officials" have been speaking to US newspapers, giving bleak assessments of Ukraine's counteroffensive and its ability to sever Russia's land bridge to Crimea by the end of the year.
Dr Jan Kallberg, a senior fellow at the Centre for European Policy Analysis and an assistant professor in the Department of Mathematical Sciences at the US Military Academy, has told the ABC that assumption is based on flawed logic, and that if Ukraine can push another 10-15km beyond Robotyne, that could be enough.
For any fighting force to operate effectively it needs what's referred to as a ground line of communication — a transport route that allows military units to be supplied with food, fuel, artillery, spare parts for vehicles and other reinforcements.
Dr Kallberg said Russia's transport route ran around 7-10km inland of Melitopol, and if Ukraine could punch through another 10-15km of territory from Robotyne, it would be enough to put this key supply line under the range of its rocket launchers and artillery systems.
Russia has already defied expectations with the strength of its defensive lines that have stalled Ukraine's counteroffensive through a series of minefields, trenches, "dragon's teeth" barricades and anti-tank ditches.
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...but, you missed the final point :He (Dr Kallberg) believes as winter approaches the issues around logistics could cripple Russia's ability to fight and that Mr Putin will face a stark choice.
"He can fight on and risk mass troop surrenders, or pull back. Either way the so-called land bridge from Russia to Crimea will be snapped,"
Looking at this on liveUAmap, it's very obvious what they are trying to do. I think they ultimately want to control Obitochna Spit, which is about 150km from The Bridge.
That would put almost all of Crimea under fire control of HIMARS.