Nate Silver: Joe Biden should drop out
Nate Silver: Joe Biden should drop out
Denying Joe Biden's decline has put Democrats in a terrible position.
Nate Silver, formerly of 538, believes Biden should drop out.
Nate Silver was going to write this regardless of how Biden performed last night.
He's actually been quite reserved on the issue. While he's acknowledged it as a risk, he had not reached this point until now.
No one arguing that he should drop out has really thought it through. Like, TV ad time has been reserved and planned through September. Donor networks would need to be on board. It would be chaos at the convention while they fought over who it should be. It’d be a disaster.
This drop out framing also only applies to Biden. Trump says dumb outrageous shit all the time and is an actual criminal, and the framing is almost always "will this help or hurt his chances". Biden has a sore throat or whatever and the pundit class can't type their resign now pieces fast enough.
Exactly. Biden sounded a little confused and disjointed on a few answers, but always made his point. Trump sounds confused and disjointed literally 90% of the time.
They are both old af but Biden has done a good job as president and sounds like a normal dude most of the time. Trump sounded worse every year and ended his time in office by killing millions of Americans through inaction.
I've thought this through for quite some time and I think you're missing the opportunity for Democrats to seize the narrative.
- "We listened to voters who were unsatisfied with either candidate, a large majority who said age is a real concern for them."
- "Joe Biden stepped down for the American People to let a younger generation lead."
- FREE VIRAL MEDIA TIME for months on end about the fresh face of the Democratic party.
- A complete lack of developed right-wing talking-points to disseminate.
With perks like that who needs donors and TV ad time? This isn't the 80s. Elections aren't won on television ads.
All we know is what doesn't work, and what doesn't work was shown last night. It has been showing in poll after poll after poll despite people burying their heads in the sand: a President with approval ratings in the 30s, and a Presidential candidate who is FAR behind in every data-point compared to where he was in 2020.
I've listened to Jon Stewart, Katie Couric, 2 different NYT podcasts, post-PBS analysis, Pod Save America (former Obama/VP Biden staffers) -- and they are all echoing the same fucking thing:
It is time to try something different.
I didn’t vote for Biden in the 2020 primary and I don’t disagree with you on those points. That easily could be how it plays out. I just think if Biden resigns, there’s a high chance of a split in the party (after a contested convention) and we’re all imagining a new candidate we like (or just a “generic democrat”) replacement rather than a real person who possibly has baggage, hasn’t been tested on the national stage (or was bad on it like Kamala Harris), or won’t be able to unite the coalition that backed Biden in 2020.
Basically, I think it’s a huge gamble this late in the election. Biden shouldn’t have run again and when he did, should have faced a real challenge in the primary. But that isn’t what happened and now I think changing course over one debate isn’t worth the risk.
With perks like that who needs donors and TV ad time? This isn't the 80s. Elections aren't won on television ads.
No, but they are still very much won with money. Advertising of various forms (TV, radio, Internet, billboards, yard signs, T-shirts, the list goes on), local outreach, field offices, door to door campaigners, booths at events, social media, and countless more. All of it is driven by money.
Citizens United fucked every election since. It exclusively dealt with campaign finance.
It's already a disaster. It's been a disaster since last election. Anti opposition votes can only get you so far, before people start to feel indifferent, since their voices clearly don't matter in the slightest.
What would happen if Biden straight up announced: "I'm not able to serve another 4 years. I'm passing my whole campaign to <insert Biden's pick here>. I trust <new candidate> as does my whole administration." Is that not allowed?
It’s allowed but the convention delegates choose the nominee. So, it’d probably have to be agreed ahead of time who the nominee would be and that the other contenders (and donors) would fall in line. Maybe if it’s Whitmer, they promise Harris and Newsome a cabinet secretary position. I’m not sure anyone has that sort of support, though. VP Harris would be the logical option for that sort of transition but she’s not popular and Trump is already making ads saying a vote for Biden means Kamala Harris will be president before the term is over.
I mean, anything is possible. We’re in uncharted waters. But to me, that’s also the problem. And we don’t know for sure why Biden was off in the debate. Maybe he had a cold. Maybe he’s so old, his childhood memories are in black and white. Maybe a month from now, there will have been a whole new news cycle and the debate will be forgotten.
Silver knows this. What's his game?
Perhaps Silver knows this, but perhaps also Nate Silver knows even more things, especially compared to the armchair Lemmy political analyst?
Nate sliver should choke on a donkey dick
Wish they'd both drop out....
Nate Silver should have marital relations with a rusty rake
Trump should drop out, being a convicted felon, racist and traitor.
Imagine how easy this would be if Democrats nominate someone that wasn’t in their 80s.
Bots out in full force.
Everyone knows their vote and what they're gonna do December of 2022 when we knew it would be these two again
Anyone who says anything else has a very clear agenda. I don't care how old Biden looks I'm voting for the democratic party and the platform.
While I agree with you about swing voters, there is a very large number of potential non-voters, sometimes known as the enthusiasm gap. People that believe that both options are the same, or that neither will affect their lives very much. There's also the ones that think Trump can't get re-elected, which of course is part of how he got there in the first place.
There aren't a lot of people excited to vote Biden. But we'll do it anyway, because we really don't want to see more Trump. If I didn't see Trump as a threat to democracy itself, I could understand people not voting at all.
People wouldn't be so concerned if he had a stronger VP.
Like who?
Nate Silver is 100% correct.
He is right. No one over 75 should hold the job. I'd much rather DeSantis or Haley vs Newsom or Harris.
I’d much rather DeSantis and Haley not be on any ticket…
How about we have Newsom be the Republican and AOC be the Democrat, since that’s a little more accurate if you go by pure policy assessment.
That would be accurate by pure policy, in Europe. AOC won't get anywhere near this year's ticket. If anything, by dementia or prison, they will replace them with candidates that are similar in policy.
Airlines have a mandatory retirement age of 65. I could support that for politicians and judges.