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Bulletins and News Discussion from April 7th to April 13th, 2025 - Juche With Trumpian Characteristics

Image is allegedly of the note Trump wrote while editing a speech while on the way back from the G20 summit.

The top Russian-Chinese agent, Donald Trump, has decided that the pace of dedollarization and the decline of American financial hegemony is going too slowly. He has therefore decided to put tariffs on everybody; from America's largest trading partners to uninhabited islands. In the process, he is trying to create an autarkic America. Jokes aside, interpretation and analysis of this has ranged across a wide spectrum. I think we can broadly agree that the most idiotic are the "true believers"; those that actually believe Trump's every word, and that this will somehow bring back American manufacturing and whatever other inane promises he has made.

However, there is a much more interesting debate. The first camp are those who believe Trump is acting as an inadvertent accelerationist due to his lack of understanding about how the world economy and dollar hegemony functions (and that this will subsequently ensure that countries flock to China instead). The second camp are those who believe that Trump does know what he's doing, at least to a certain extent, and that the effective result of this period of madness will be countries kowtowing to the United States; renegotiating trade deals to be even more in favor of the US in order to get tariffs reduced. There's even a yet more cynical camp who believes that in fact, this entire trade war is just theater for further national wealth redistributions from poor to rich; that all these monumental international trade wars are more of a sideshow. To quote the linked article: "[...] out of the mountain of tariffs that threaten to turn into a global trade war will emerge the mouse of further tax cuts."

I'm not embarrassed to admit that I have absolutely no idea which one of these is the closest model to reality. We're in new economic and political ground, and even if the tariffs are quickly renegotiated and/or dropped, the impacts will continue to reverberate around the world for years. I'm sure we'll debate this for months to come here, though!

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1.6K comments

  • Nicaragua has withdrawn its support for South Africa's case against the Apartheid entity at the ICJ, confirmed on 3 April - ICJ official post

    No immediate reason was given, but it is suspected that Trump had painted a target on Nicaragua's back and may have threatened to retaliate against the 450,000 Nicaraguans living in the US, in addition to Nicaragua's cordial relations with South Africa (who is now also being accused of complicity in 7 October, as an escalation of atrocity propaganda by the Orange Führer's friends).

    Death to ameriKKKa

  • Vargas Llosa has died.

    Peruvian writer and politician Mario Vargas Llosa died this Sunday in Lima, where he lived with his family. Since distancing himself from left-wing politics, he has embraced right-wing politics. In 1989, The Washington Post would write that though Vargas Llosa's party appeared center-right, "he has ties with far-right politicians in other countries".

    Vargas Llosa has continued to be criticized due to his association with far-right groups and politicians. The Christian Science Monitor would call Vargas Llosa "a right-wing maverick" while Jacobin would plainly describe him as a "far-right novelist".

    Vargas Llosa has described himself as a supporter of liberalism and said that the individuals who have had most impact on his political thought have included Karl Popper, Friedrich Hayek and Isaiah Berlin. According to The Nation, Vargas Llosa would condemn leftist groups entirely due to the controversies of some while minimizing similar actions by neoliberal governments.

    He supported right-wing libertarian candidate Javier Milei in the 2023 Argentine general election. Following the arrest of Augusto Pinochet for crimes against humanity in 1999, Vargas Llosa would write an op-ed in The New York Times asking why left wing dictators were also not being arrested.

    During the 2022 Brazilian general election, Vargas Llosa expressed his endorsement for conservative leader Jair Bolsonaro. "The case of Bolsonaro it's a hard question. His jokes are very hard to endorse, for a liberal [...] Now, between Bolsonaro and Lula, I prefer Bolsonaro. Even with jokes from Bolsonaro, Lula no." said Vargas Llosa at a conference

  • The Antifascist International, Ecuador Chapter, denounces fraud in Ecuador's presidential election. “Faced with this emergency, we call on the Ecuadorian people to active and organized resistance. The struggle continues and must intensify in the streets.."

    The International Collective of CELAC Social denounces “the serious attack on the popular will” committed in Ecuador's presidential election. The Executive Secretariat of ALBA says that irregularities in Ecuador's runoff election suggests “the execution of a clear premeditated electoral fraud.”

  • Ecuador Election Update (Sources: Radio Pichincha):

    Luiza Gonzalez: denounces electoral fraud after the first official results of the ballot. “There are about 11 polls in which all of them, even those of the government itself, gave us the victory”, she emphasizes. “I denounce before my people, the media and the world that we are living a dictatorship and we are facing the worst and most grotesque electoral fraud in the history of the Republic of Ecuador”, she asserts.

    “In the name of the men, women, children and young people we represent, in the name of the people we represent, we do not recognize the results presented by the CNE”, said Luisa Gonzalez from the headquarters of Revolucion Ciudadana. She also indicated that they will request the recount of votes and the opening of the ballot boxes.

    Correristas claim they have 52% of the votes, against 48% of Daniel Narcoa

  • US airstrikes did continue on Yemen for the 30th night in a row, with strikes targeting a factory leading to the killing of civilians. Sana’a and Marib Governorate were targeted by multiple rounds of airstrikes. There were two significant statements from the Yemeni Armed Forces, one to do with firing Medium Range Ballistic Missiles (MRBMs) at Israel, another to do with shooting down the 19th MQ-9 Reaper drone.

    The launching of MRBMs at Israel again is a significant development. It's been 14 days, exactly two weeks, since the last MRBM launch, and 17 days since the last launch of a MaRV capable Palestine-2 MRBM. So Ansarallah is fighting to maintain and rebuild capabilities amongst the intense US Navy air campaign against it. As a commentator pointed out earlier today, THAAD air defence interceptor missiles were likely used to intercept the MaRV of the Palestine-2 missile. There were pictures of the boosters online.

    As for how the MQ-9s get shot down even during the ongoing SEAD campaign, these shootdowns don't happen over Sana'a or Saada Governorates where a pathway has been opened up to allow them to operate without being shot down and even on video, but in other areas. Also, there is a surface to air loitering munition that Ansarallah have called Missile-358. It's basically a Lancet, but for taking out air targets. It's not a traditional air defence system with a radar and so forth. Perfect for slow and low flying drones in visual range like the MQ-9.

    Warning for potential graphic imagery of casualties during ongoing airstrikes:

    Al Masirah TV twitter

    Xcancel mirror

  • Mearsheimer has given an interview to one of the Finnish tabloid rags and this also made the national news today which was citing the tabloid article.

    The article part tries to shit on him but also states his views on how he thinks Finland joining nato was a mistake, the Finnish president is a lib and that the Ukraine war is the result of nato expansion. This might be worth reading via translate as the tabloid tries very hard to undermine his opinions, but as they try to be nuanced, it largely fails in this.

    The article seems to have 1000 comments, but those can't be read without signing into their site. That is a lot of cope for a country this size.

  • CNE results site: Daniel Noboa holds a 12-point lead over Luisa González with 80.53% of votes counted.

    • Kawsachuan News

    I guess Noboa is going to win. CIA/US wins once again

  • Stranger still, is that the gap isn't narrowing much as the CNE count progresses through provinces where the RC excels. CNE's figures suggest that Luisa didn't gain votes even with all the endorsements she received in round 1. Not even Pachakutik's votes? Inconceivable.

    • Kawsachuan News

  • Lmao, apparently Trump is now calling the tariff exemption "fake news." Here's the content of his Truth Social post, which is apparently now how trade policy is being "clarified."

    Monday is going to be wild.

  • russians struck some military ceremony in center of sumy, but hit civilians nearby :(

    what being a lib does to mfers, just strike z-man, ffs.

  • Left-wing and progressive parties in Ecuador express concern over the series of irregularities by the National Electoral Council (CNE) and the government of presidential candidate Daniel Noboa, implemented just hours before today's presidential runoff elections.

    The statement reads:

    Throughout the electoral process, we have witnessed the shameful role played by the National Electoral Council (CNE). It has failed to fulfill the functions established in the Constitution, which, among other things, mandates that it be the overseer of the electoral process and guarantor of transparency and equality for all contestants in the elections, but none of this has been fulfilled. The latest events we note below should concern and outrage all of us who defend democracy and transparency.

    • Last-minute relocation of 18 polling stations under the guise of winter weather. Rain has been ongoing for two months, and flooding has been punishing for two weeks. However, the decision was made at the last minute. Coincidentally, these changes affect the precincts where the ruling party did not perform well in the first round.
    • National government broadcasts, four times a day, in complete electoral silence, announcing alleged government actions; something that is expressly prohibited by law, but the CNE remains silent.
    • Delegations of international election observers are prevented from entering the country.
    • Use of state resources to distribute bonuses (USD 570 million), last-minute payments to state suppliers, and unofficial trips by the presidential candidate, all for the purpose of campaigning.
    • Decree of a state of emergency in 7 provinces, suspending the civil rights of inviolability of the home, correspondence, movement, and assembly; Coincidentally, these are the same provinces where presidential candidate Noboa failed to receive a favorable vote in the first round.
    • Suspension of voting for Ecuadorians in Venezuela.

    We demand that the CNE assume its responsibility and guarantee transparent elections within the framework of the law. We are vigilant for the good of the country; we will not allow them to violate democratic principles. We alert international organizations, the EU, the UN, the OAS, and civil society oversight bodies about these regrettable events that continue to affect our country's weak democracy and hinder this process of citizen participation.

  • Not sure what to think of this article. The article is originally published in Pakistan, but the author is apparently from Bangladesh:
    https://www.pressenza.com/2025/04/india-defending-chinese-threat-from-bangladeshs-soil/

    Conspiracy theories across the border may sound interesting, but equally disgusting. It is frustrating when scores of Indian so-called defense experts and former military hawks speak and write with confidence that China will establish an airbase (not a military base) in northern Bangladesh to battle the Indians to cut off the so-called ‘Chicken Neck’ or Siliguri Corridor, which physically connects India with North East states.

    The consequential theory simmering in the heads of Indian defense analysts claims that the Chinese will severe North East (which is also known as Seven Sisters) from the Chicken Neck. Incidentally, millions of Chinese soldiers (People’s Liberation Army) will invade from the northeastern Chinese borders.

    Ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader Dilip Ghosh in a ‘friendly message’ in December 2024, commented that Bangladesh’s armed forces are no match for India and that Bangladesh’s political leaders should “think carefully” about the ongoing turmoil.

  • Big brain move: notice the market get too volatile and insecure, so you keep changing the economic outlook every 12 hours so that the big players don't know wtf is happening and decide to just hold out for a while and not sell anything.

    //

    On another note, it's hard to appreciate the timescale of the American empire while you're living through it. I just noticed that the possibly strongest empire in human history started to crumble after what, 70-80 years? I usually think of empires lasting for centuries, with generations and generations of a golden age.

  • Chinese Money Supply Report for March seems pretty strong after credit being anemic last year so good signs for the economy and demand outlooks i guess. And even less pressure regarding the trade war.

    M2 money supply +7.0% y/y; Est. +6.1%;

    M1 money supply +1.6% y/y; Est. +0.3%;

    M0 money supply +11.5% y/y; Prev. +9.7%;

    Aggregate financing 5.9 trillion yuan, Prev. 2.23;

    New yuan loans 2.23 trillion yuan, Prev. 0.74.

    Problem with credit in the last couple of years and especially last year is that since forever land sales were critical to the credit formation process because they drove the leveraged generation of loans through a number of asset collateralization processes. This is where the money for all other local economic activities came from. But that wasnt viable anymore so one of the central sturctual tranformations of the Chinese economy is to delink credit generation from land sales and towards more mature financial insturments, and that cant be seperated from the general crack down of real estate speculation and deflating that bubble. So especially during last year the "fountainhead" for the credit cycle was locked up because of the land finance wind down. Credit going back to normal seems to indicate there has been substantial progress in that aspect and maybe the economy is beyond the more shaky phase.

    Mechanically, the credit impulse drives the demand cycle, not vice versa. Availability of money is what determines demand. Demand does not determine availability of money. So demand problems were in large part downstream of that. Reticence from households to spend due to property value deflation was only a secondary problem. The primary problem was squeezed incomes and business revenue from a slow moving liquidity lockup.

  • It has been a tense week around the globe and uncertainty of the future is what is the most frightening part of this trade war. Some small businesses in China are adding “America fee” for American tourists so if you want to buy a product with an identification they will add a surcharge which I find amusing and you should too. Each hour the unpredictable nature of this situation creates spikes of anxiety across China and many of us are scared that this can escalate to a kinetic war. I have even heard of some rumors of a draft being implemented but these were not verifiable yet, I don’t think kinetic war is something we see anytime soon but this is a start.

    Will China sell treasuries? They have already started doing so… but to think they will “dump” them (sell them all) is out of the question, although I have seen that suggested here in a post or two, unless this is a jest then I would say that mutual economic destruction would be the result- yes economies want to move away from the US globalized order, but the move takes time hence the opportunity for BRICS to flourish and deeper trade partnerships with other nations. Reacting poorly to the decisions of the US in this current time will only impact more people, not just Americans. The reciprocal tariffs is a way of mitigating the consequences and in turn a show of solidarity with the Chinese people and other nations who may be too scared to war with the US. Partnerships like that of Korea, Japan and China only reinforce the Chinese ability to mitigate conflicts and show it is able to play the part of a good global superpower and this is what globally people want, they don’t want an empire which will attack them as its doing now. They just want support.

    Rumors: Now for the scary part. Rumors that an all out war will begin are just rumors, but at the same time we have to take into consideration that wars have started over less. Trade wars are essentially hurting economies and the people living in those countries. As America approaches recession, unemployment goes up, people lose jobs, homes, and they die. The Chinese infrastructure is a lot kinder so there are safety nets implemented which prevents people from feeling a full impact, although they will still be affected no doubt. I feel for other countries as well who do not have adequate safeguards in place, in the US however the worker always feels the brunt of the force, the working class will always pay to fix the issues of the country which will possibly lead to some sort of nation wide unrest which is when Trump will enact the insurrection act and install martial law, it is funny that the liberals who were so adamant China was the harbinger of oppression and martial law of certain populations within China (lies) are now starting to understand to some degree that they themselves are living in such a regime. But we should still not trust the liberals as they always side with the fascists in the end, they may cry about it now until their face of the party tells them “sending Americans to El Salvador is good actually” and then they will keep quiet like they did on Palestine. Anything that infringes on their optics and reality of living within a Marvel movie takes them out of their artificial reality, the only reason the liberals complain now is because the cost of empire rises, but when the leash is tugged they will obey. So while the US may start to usher in martial law, they have already boasted their incentive of increasing their military budget to one trillion dollars. This is meaningless and more posturing, the US is in decline and knows it. This is a rat trapped in a corner move and one that increases stock prices of death capital (manufacturers of war products) and nothing more.

  • Shot:

    Chaser:

    If this is true, it’s the single dumbest policy in an administration that only sets dumb policy. But considering the tariffs on steel I can only imagine we’re going back to building boats out of wood or gang-pressing private vessels to start carrying cargo its not designed to to bear the burden.

    Literally set to destroy domestic and international trade, it’s amazing how they set only dumb policy.

    ::: spoiler i dunno how to x cancel or anything Link here: https://x.com/typesfast/status/1909362292367802840

  • Another day another comment

    I think yesterday perfectly encapsulate why I think we will increasingly see capital leave the us, in a single day the SP500 moved down 5% then up 3% and settling slightly negative. That kind of volatility is more reminiscent of Bitcoin and not something that 'should happen' to stuff like these indexes of 'real economies' yet here we are, and the reason seems to be that institutional investors, basically big investment firms and banks, are completely not moving they are neither selling nor buying at the moment and most movement is coming from retail investors, your gamestop guys, your maga people, those wallstreetbets redditors etc.

    So where is the institutional money going to?

    For the most part into private companies and they've been doing so for quite a while now in 1996 there were 8000 public traded companies now that numbers is 4000, meanwhile private companies went from 1900 to 11200. This trend is sure to speed up now, especially since after this crash taking a public company private is now cheaper as well so there's no better time than now. This will have several knock on effects the first and foremost one is that as companies leave the public stock market what buying an index of S&P or the Nasdaq gets you less, basically the us stock market will speed up its 'shrinkflation', keep in mind this is something that has been happening since the 2000s but now it'll speed up.

    Other knock on effects are decreased confidence in the US as a place to invest in, if I am a german investment banker I rely on data that is under some scrutiny and oversight, so I am much less inclined to want to invest into anything in the US, yes I could get the next google but I could also get the next WeWork. Which means the steady flow of foreign capital into the US will slow and might even end because Trump is keeping up the hostility. Meanwhile US capital will invest in foreign markets if it can which means that where before capital flowed into the US we will now see capital start to flow out of the US over years/decades.

    This matters because if Trump is serious about his 'we will bring back manufacturing' then he already lost. Building factories requires a ton of capital, capital that doesn't want to invest right now because of how risky and uncertain things are right now, and which will in the future leave the US, foreign capital is quickly drying up both from hostilities and less confidence so they are out as well which really only leaves them with one way of building manufacturing.

    Public spending to build factories, now I don't think it needs to be said but that is never ever going to happen.

    So uh yes. I think Trump did sign the eventual death warrant call me the anti-xiaohongshu or whatever

  • This will be my last post in the foreseeable time since I'll delete the account after I've posted this so I better make it count. Partly because things suck and partly because I decided to do more praxis instead of stewing online.

    There's no reason to beat the dead horse that's tariffs and Trump so just a quick update, they had numbers and the numbers were really good like low inflation much lower than anticipated while Fed says 3% inflation for the year and that they don't see the need to do anything about it, meanwhile Bonds keep going up as people flee the US Dollar into gold, yen and swiss franc and other currencies like I said. US 10YR Bonds are going even higher as stock markets crap themselves as capital is fleeing the USA because shits fucked.

    So I'll focus on my original hatred the germans. There's a new poll AfD is now highest polling but honestly who cares at this point, elections are still far away and there's honestly not much of a difference between CDU and AfD, it's like Pepsi and Coke, could be that they got boosted by all this fear and uncertainty could be a bigger incoming trend it's too early to tell but then again CDU is determined to go all in on what the AfD wants.

    Anyways coalition time this is the new cabinet

    Economy: CDU They just put a pretty incompetent guy in here who's micro fixation is getting rid of the VAT

    Finance: SPD

    Interior: Alexander Dobrindt CSU This guy is a massive piece of shit, racist, fascist you name it and a huge Zionist and someone that is in the pocket of car lobbies that talked about there being a 'Anti-Deportation-Industry' in germany, calling climate activists like Last Generation and XR, climate RAF something which considering he is bavarian and how criminal the police and state is there in its repression is really fucking bad.

    Labour: SPD

    Defence: SPD <- Guy under Scholz who is quite popular keeps his position

    Infrastructure: CDU

    Health: CDU

    Ecology: CDU

    Foreign: CDU

    Family: CDU

    Digital: CDU

    Justice: SPD

    Education: CSU <- Again these are like absolute freaks

    Agricultural: CSU

    Foreign Aid/Development: SPD

    What did interest me about their new coalition, what they have in their 'Koalitionsvertrag', their coalition contract. So what they are going to focus on, it's a 146 page document that I've read. Well mostly the first couple of pages about how germany is under attack I skimmed because I don't care for the lamentations of the germans how things are totally unfair.

    Economy

    There is a ton of stuff here and most of it is really vague but the things they do mention over and over again are words like 'pragmatism, flexibility and de-regulation'. In short companies should be much less regulated and free to do whatever with a specific point being german car manufacturers who don't have to worry too much about CO2 emissions from their cars. They offset this by going 'Now you can get subsidies for EV vehicles going up to 100k' so germans will buy the newest electric Porsche or whatever.

    One small thing they want to accomplish is bring down energy cost by 5 cent per kWh so that combined with less regulations might mean that they will ease sanctions on Russia to get that gas back and get cheap energy again.

    Green Policies

    This of course means when it comes to green policies they do a big talk about how they are comitted to goals and things, but they do not mention actual policies and my take on this is that they'll do fuck all regarding emissions and we might even see more rollbacks on those pesky laws that make polluting harmful because the overall message to me is 'All Hail the Economy' and they'll sacrifice the environment at its altar. Climate protections will get optimised aka they will get removed

    National Security

    Yeah guess what massive more surveillance and shit because of other countries waging 'hybrid warfare against the german state'. Now I know what you are thinking bombing Nordstream but no Germany has been in a sort of mania about Russia secretly bombing germany so that plus the 'antisemitism' will get used for a massive expansion of the surveillance state designating and deporting people for political activism which we already saw with Pro-Palestine EU-Citizens getting deported without any courts. And considering that there's even conspiracy theories that green activists are actually working for Putin there will be a massive political repression.

    Social Policy

    They'll reform the Bürgergeld aka former Hartz IV aka benefits will get slashed again. Oh also consumer protection is also gone.

    Asylum Policy

    I don't know what to tell you shit's fucked it'll be extremely fucked and will go against EU rights and law, International rights and laws, it'll be fucking bad.

    This is mostly it there's other stuff but most is really vague and they've got some of the best german word people out there to write up gems like

    Die klimapolitischen Sektorleitlinien werden wir flexibilisieren

    Which I mean words have no meaning.

    One thing that is notably absent is anything concerning combatting the rise of right-wing extremism, fascism, nazism. AfD is quite clearly a nazi party and they are permitted because well Germany is a nazi country but I think it should be repeated again that in this coalition that ran on 'we are going to stop the AfD'. They didn't put a single thing against the AfD.

    Cheers notceps

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