Brexit’s Lasting Damage Is Looking Inescapable
Brexit’s Lasting Damage Is Looking Inescapable
By almost every economic and financial measure, parting ways with the EU almost eight years ago has been disastrous for the UK. Is there no end in sight?
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Our GDP per capita and productivity have been underperforming since 2003. There's more going on here than just Brexit.
Please provide a source.
According to Worldbank GDP/capita increased from '94-07, dove with the financial crisis, rose again until 2014, and then dove with Brexit, then dove with Covid/hard Brexit. Almost recovered 21, but is currently trending slightly downward, probably hobbled by war making recovery efforts difficult.
Brexit seems to have set the economy back about 5-6 years of growth, and is also dampening new growth (making recovery slower).
The data does not support your conclusion.
Sure! Here's the ONS data for GDP: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/mwb6/ukea
Here's the ONS data for Productivity: https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/labourproductivity/timeseries/lzvb/prdy
I was wrong on my dates; however. It's more like 2008 rather than 2003, so ties in with the financial crisis.
You also miss my point. I'm not arguing whether Brexit did or didn't affect our economy, I'm pointing out that the data shows we had economic issues long before 2020, and so pointing the finger of blame solely at Brexit is missing the wider picture.
Also, whilst I don't disagree re. your comments on recovery, it's worth bearing in mind that Foreign Direct Investment in the UK remains respectably high as of 2022: https://unctad.org/node/41440
Thank you for providing sources.
I'm still not clear how your data supports "having issues pre-2020, your data only shows a 2008 dip, which we've explained as a one-off event that UK recovered from before the dip 2020. There's no Brexit dip, which seems suspect, but I'm unwilling to trawl through raw data sources and so will cede that maybe it didn't dip in 2014.
Then we still have the 2019-2020 dip, which coincides with Covid and Hard Brexit. Covid effects aren't expected until 2020, whereas Brexit ones would be felt 2019. Even if we disagree about why, I see no no indication at all in your data, that there were problems pre-2020, no significant dip in neither GDP nor productivity. So where does your conclusion come from?
If you extrapolate out a trend line from pre-2008 to now on the GDP graph you'll see that the position where we would have been prior to the financial crash is higher than our current position. The same is true on the productivity chart, albeit a lot closer. My point it that we were already in a bad point prior to Brexit.
See, for example, ONS graphs for unemployment: https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/unemployment/timeseries/mgsx/lms
Or adjusted pay: https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/timeseries/kac3/lms
That's all I'm saying. The issue with with placing that blame exclusively at the feet of Brexit a) ignores the inherent difficulty in separating the economic affects of Covid and Brexit and b) shifts blame from decades of economic and political missteps by our government and onto an convenient scapegoat. The whole things a mess, but Brexit cannot be viewed in isolation.
If your extrapolate a line during the run up to ANY recession you'll create a line that never gets hit again. Your extrapolation theory reminds me of this
It's not just a 'run up to a recession' it's over 12 years of continuous growth arrested in 2008. I'd argue that's more than enough data points to extrapolate a trend line. Don't take my word for it, though. Here's an example of the ONS doing the same thing: https://www.ons.gov.uk/visualisations/dvc496/Recession/chart5/index.html
Oh my god, it's even worse when you zoom out. We'll never catch up to the trend lines set by the years of unsustainable growth before the recessions in the 70's. Oh the permanent damage we caused. It's an absolute tragedy that after a recession we never get back to the trend line that was set by the bubble before it burst. I'm not patient enough for the slow and steady fundamental growth of humanity through time, I want continuous fast exponential growth so the shareholders can he happy all the time!
This isn't about shareholders, this is about demonstrating the economic performance of the UK in the lead up to Brexit as it pertains to our current situation. In your previous comment you seemed to be implying that you can't extrapolate a trend line prior to a recession and I demonstrated that you could because the lead up was measured in years. I'm not arguing that damage from a recession is permanent, I'm arguing that it put us in an already bad place in terms of productivity etc prior to 2020.
Here you go...
2008 crash then austerity. Austerity was politically motivated. Most economists I've read/heard follow Maynard Keynes. That who country's credit card nonsense has got to go. Educate the electorate, don't pander to ignorance.
It was also based on a spreadsheet that didn't have all the cells selected when "averaging".
It's a convenient scapegoat for the neoliberal political class, since it was the only decision actually made by the people. It allows them to throw all the blame on the working class, which they love doing anyway.
Totally, do you ever get frustrated when people keep telling you that you're not that bright, well fuckem, they're all woke work shy immigrants I bet!
Are you people even capable of hiding your classism for five minutes?
How is this classism? Your original comment also changed ordinary people to working class, which I consider myself to be both part of.
You are suggesting that Brexit was some fight against some elite. The EU is a neo liberal mess, but the Tories who pushed this through by stoking bigotry are full on fascist and fully just taking advantage of useful idiots like yourself. Disaster capitalism is not a new concept
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Blood-Streets-Investment-Profits-World/dp/067162735X
Victorian pencil made a fortune out of this shit show.
And of course David Cameron is laughing all the way as he whistles his way out of power by giving a big fuck you to the EU tax laws
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/07/david-cameron-offshore-trusts-eu-tax-crackdown-2013
Yeah, you show them elites...
Hating the rich is like hating murderers, it's not a feeling you should hide in polite company like racism. Every minute of their breathing lives they choose to take more from society than they give back. That's how these dragons of modern times create their unimaginable hoards. No knight in stories of old hid their desire to slay the foul beasts, because doing so is always virtuous and worthy of praise.