The polls keep getting worse for Biden
The polls keep getting worse for Biden
Trump’s vote share in national polls is higher than at any time in the past year.
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Polls are completely unreliable, especially this far out. They predicted trumps loss the first go around and we endured 4 years of that POS. They predicted red waves the last 2 election cycles and it never manifested.
Its a problem with the techniques they're using to gather data I guess. Whether it's the cold calling or what, I don't know, but it clearly isn't effective to get honest assessments anymore.
That being said it will never not blow my mind that it's even slightly close. Last election millions of Americans sat through 4 years of trump and said yep that worked out great for me. Everyone I talked to who was in that camp had various incorrect reasons but you don't need to be right, you just have to feel like you're right.
I think the reality is that Biden is not and has never been a popular candidate. His age works against him. Kamala is equally unappealing and doesn't help things either. The biggest problem right now is that Biden has come out very strongly pro Israel (which every single president has done including Trump) and he has not done enough to condemn the Israeli genocide. Millenials and Gen z are at the very least anti genocide and largely pro Palestine so that's not helping his case, although they're short sighted if they assume Trump would be the better answer here.
If Trump wins our democracy is over. 'Oh you're overreacting'. Yeah they said that to me before Trumps presidency and I was correct then as I am correct now.
We have to get through 24 and not have a deranged traitorous lunatic take the reigns of the country again. We can discuss the next steps in the post Trump era but we won't get the option to discuss it if Trump somehow wins.
Vote like you value this country. Convince others to vote. Apathy is a vote for Trump. Choosing not to vote for Biden because you're anti Israel is voting for Trump, who is also going to continue right along supporting Israel.
I reckon the techniques they use favor older people. For example, I can see a boomer answering a cold call no problem, but I couldn’t say the same for a younger generation.
One problem is cost. It takes millions of dollars to do a truly scientific poll these days. Robocalls don't work anymore due to cell phone penetration. The phonebook is dead, and along with it any credible listings of numbers that represent real people. Plus very low response rates and spam filters blocking much of polling calls even then. You pretty much have to go door-to-door in order to get a truly good poll, which is something few organizations can do.
As a result, most cheaply done polls use non-random samples and add a giant "fudge factor" to make it look random. It's not clear how there models really work and there's no way to audit them.
We have to get through 24 and not have a deranged traitorous lunatic take the reigns of the country again. We can discuss the next steps in the post Trump era but we won’t get the option to discuss it if Trump somehow wins.
This has been every election since 2012, and the discussion doesn't happen.
And that's one of the main reasons why Biden is the candidate AND why most people who weren't alive the last time the US had a president to the left of Reagan don't trust the DNC much.
A part of the problem with the 'get through 24' thought line is that Trump and the circus surrounding him has morphed into something that's functionally it's own entity with a R painted on it for convenience. That whole branch of the political tree has become some sort of monstrosity that the few remaining normal-ish conservatives fear to cross lest they become a target just like everyone else who's an 'other'.
The rest of the problem with the "get through 24" message is that it will become "get through 28" the day after election day.
If it's so dire, then fuck Biden for supporting a genocide. He's throwing away an election before it happens. He's unelectable now.
I think this is the scenario Newsom has been preparing for.
If it’s so dire, then fuck Biden for supporting a genocide. He’s throwing away an election before it happens. He’s unelectable now.
"He's unelectable now"
Yes, I'm sure that not supporting Israel would have been much better for his election chances.
Like, have you paid attention to popular opinion on Israel at all these past 20 years?
Do you know what the US electorate looks like, or just what you want it to look like?
Have you paid attention to popular opinion of Israel these past 3 months? Since, you know, they started a genocide?
you're in an echo chamber bro
I'm not at all. It's only the young people and Muslim voters who have turned on him, but that's enough.
One young guy I work with votes the other 12 dudes I work with don't. Most young ladies I work with vote.
The one dude votes Dem. Most ladies I know vote Dem. In my echo chamber of life at my job nobody young is voting for Trump and nobody has turned on Biden because they weren't with him in the first place they're just not voting for Trump.
But that's my echo chamber of my work place. Tiktok is an echo chamber too.
Right, he needed to turn out those young voters who don't vote currently, and now that's not going to happen.
By he you mean Biden right??
Because he actually doesn't. He won last time idk if you know that or not? Trump needs the turnout more. Covid crushed his base, a lot of the Republican voters are old people and Christians which is only a falling demographic. Trump needs the youth more than Biden does. Most youth who are politically interested are so because of the Trump admin/roe v wade.
The youth that is moved is not towards Trump. You do not understand I think.
Keep sleep walking. The kids don't want Genocidal Joe.
Whatever you say kid. I'll check back in a year
"We don't need you."
later
"It's your fault we lost!"
Have you paid attention to popular opinion of Israel these past 3 months? Since, you know, they started a genocide?
Alright, first, this isn't even close to the start. This is just another flare-up of the ongoing genocide that's been apparent to anyone who pays attention to foreign affairs (ie not most Americans).
Second, US popular opinion is nowhere near turned against Israel yet. Even amongst Democrats it's an even split.
Yeah there certainly are a lot of people with strong opinions about Israel and Palestine that haven't so much as taken the time to open the Wikipedia page about the conflict. TikTok said it's cool to be pro Palestine so that's good enough for quite a few people.
I'm certainly not supporting Israel's actions currently but man how many people so quickly forgot what hamas did only a few weeks ago. It's like it never happened.
I think you can be anti genocide and anti carpet bombing while also believing strongly that hamas doesn't need to exist anymore and it's members are terrorists that deserve the same treatment that Isis and Al qaeda received.
Hamas leadership isn't in Gaza. How is attacking civilians in Gaza going to wipe out Hamas?
Don't interpret me as saying I'm supporting what they are doing currently. I said explicitly I don't. But after an attack like that I'd fully support military action in the area. You're a fucking fool if you think any modern nation would ever accept that and just sit by without responding.
The problem is in what the response is. Is it a prolonged occupation going building by building? Worked out great for the US. Israel and the US should definitely set about the framework of taking out anyone claiming to be hamas leadership outside of the country. Anyone who had a hand in that attack.
Again the response isn't indescriminate carpet bombing, but there must be a response.
Now you tell me what it should be. It's super easy to sit in your tower and pretend like you have all the answers when we both know you're likely full of shit.
I at least can admit what reality is here. As far as I'm concerned anything else is just people spewing bullshit when they have no idea what they're talking about.
Now you tell me what it should be.
It should have been a ceasefire long ago. Netanyahu has set a criterion for victory (wiping out Hamas) that he knows cannot be met by his current means (attacking Gaza). He wants to be able to continue attacking Gaza with no end possible.
And we're funding that with no strings attached.
You're correct but this is the first time it's gone viral on tictoc. I'm not sure you're understanding how unelectable Biden is now among the young voters that he needed to turn out in record numbers. He will not win another election now that he's so poisoned.