Analysis: ‘Greater than 99% chance’ 2023 will be hottest year on record
Analysis: ‘Greater than 99% chance’ 2023 will be hottest year on record - Carbon Brief
Probably the same chance for 2024 with el nino
2025 isn't looking that great either.
The history of temperature rise has not been monotonic. So I'd expect a period of a few years where we don't set a new record.
Yes but that doesn't mean we've reached the current peak yet.
Exactly, don't forget that climate change goes extreme in both directions, so we may very well face the coldest year on record too.
Basically no chance of that happening. Temperatures are rising, just with a bit of noise:
Monotonic would mean that each year is strictly warmer than the last one, but the noise is big enough that we sometimes get a few slightly less warm years before the next record.