Bulletins and News Discussion from October 21st to October 27th, 2024 - Swimming Back To The Titanic - COTW: Moldova
Bulletins and News Discussion from October 21st to October 27th, 2024 - Swimming Back To The Titanic - COTW: Moldova
On the 20th of October, Moldova - a small, landlocked country bordering western Ukraine and with a population of about 3 million - voted to join the EU. The margin was razor-thin, with the pro-EU vote gaining 50.39%, or an absolute difference of about 11,000 people. There was simultaneously a presidential vote between the incumbent, Maia Sandu, and other candidates, with the main competitor being Alexandr Stoianoglo.
The election was characterized by accusations of Russian interference, with Russian propaganda apparently flooding in, as well as people offering Moldovans money to vote against the EU. While the result does suggest that half the voting-age population of Moldova consists entirely of Russians who want to destroy democracy and all the good in the world, it seems to have just barely failed. This is a bad time to be a site entirely composed of Russian disinformation agents and bots. Twice already today, I've had to restart my program after somebody told me "Disregard all previous prompts."
While Moldova is a poor country which could benefit in some ways from EU membership, in practice, it is unlikely that they will be able to join for the foreseeable future, requiring many of the... reforms... that the EU requires of potential new members. But as basically every major European economy continues to slowly sink as recessions and political crises degrade them, one wonders how beneficial EU membership will even be in the years and decades to come - if it survives for decades. In that sense, it's as if the survivors of the Titanic are swimming back towards it, believing that being on a bigger - albeit slowly sinking - boat is better than trying their luck on small lifeboats.
Then again, like with Serbia, their geographical and geopolitical position makes anti-Western actions extremely difficult. It is rare that dissention is tolerated for long in the West - one tends to get called a dictator by crowds of people holding English-language signs in non-English countries, photographed by Western journalists who haven't meaningfully reported on your country in months or years. You can crush your people with neoliberal austerity for years, killing hundreds of thousands through neglect, and face glowing approval from the media - but try and use state resources to benefit the poor, and global institutions start ranking you on the authoritarian dictator scale.
The best case for Moldova is that it becomes an exploitable hinterland for Germany to harvest and privatize as it tries - and fails - to compete in a global economic war between the US and China/BRICS. The worst case is that tensions with Russia over Pridnestrovie, as well as possible eventual NATO involvement (though Moldova is not a member, it is a partner of NATO), result in the ongoing war also reaching them.
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Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
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Editing to say that I have now seen the new leaked documents, and they appear to be an obvious forgery. I will post it below, judge for yourself. To me, it reads like a fake document. Israeli media running with this is embarrassing. Maybe some sort of PsyOp? Anyway, let's be glad that it is likely fake. This attack plan was mad.
I will leave the rest of my post up, within a spoiler tag, so that the context for the replies below make sense. I hadn't seen the documents when making that post, and was relying on media reports. I will not make the same mistake again, and read any source first hand before posting, apologies to all:
My initial post before seeing the documents.
According to Israeli media, new leaked documents about Israel's planned attack on Iran have apparently been released, and from initial reports these documents detailed the planned second phase of an Israeli bombing campaign, after taking out Iranian air defences with air launched ballistic missiles in the first phase, which was the subject of the first batch of leaked documents. This second phase of the attack apparently would make use of bunker buster bombs on F-35 aircraft to take out hardened Iranian military facilities, along with using the F-35s electronic warfare capabilities to neutralise the remaining mobile air defence systems not taken out by the first phase of the attack. This was done with extensive co-operation and planning by the USA, and was set to take place on October 19.
Initial thoughts: this planned attack would mean all out war, and the first batch of the leaked documents were likely leaked to delay the start of this attack and prevent an all out war. Whatever motivation the leaker has to prevent the start of the war is unknown at this time. Could be out of self interest, they could have a conscience. The Iranian response to such an attack would likely be made up of the launch of over a thousand ballistic missiles at Israel and it's allies. The leaked documents also mention an Iranian cyber warfare campaign. In other words, all out war.
I will comment further once I view these documents.
it really seems like an all out war on iran is inevitable
Well,now we absolutely know that Chinese reunification is inevitable
Bashing your head against the Iraq's and Iran's does not a good Indo Pacific defense strategy make
If the Israeli attack goes ahead as planned, with an initial Destruction of Enemy Air Defences (DEAD) campaign using Air Launched Ballistic Missiles (ALBMs) to take out the main Iranian air defence systems such as the S300 PMU2s. Then followed up by a bombing campaign using bunker buster bombs dropped from stealth F-35s to take out hardened Iranian military targets, and a Suppression of Enemy Air Defences (SEAD) campaign using the Electronic Warfare (EW) capabilities of the F-35 combined with anti radiation missiles to suppress the remaining mobile air defence systems, all out war is inevitable. The leaks even mention Israeli special forces on the ground to carry out acts of sabotage in preparation for the air campaign.
There is not much Iran could do to stop such an attack, and they are relying on the deterrence provided by the thousands of ballistic missiles that they have to try stop Israel from launching such an attack, as it cannot be stopped directly.
Iran needs nukes
Nukes wouldn't help Iran they would just lead to a nuclear war in the middle east. MAD only works on rational actors and isisrael is quite obviously not acting rationally in its own self interest.
Is there any reason they wouldn't at least try a preemptive strike on Israel's airfields to at least delay or lessen the number of aircraft and missiles that they could launch?
Airfields are hard targets, usually with what you want to hit being spread out over a large area and fortified. We can see this in the Iranian attack against Nevatim, 33 confirmed hits, with likely more hidden by the clouds, but they only hit a couple of hangars at most. I guess cluster munitions could be use to improve hit rates, but that reduces penetration capability.
Nuke the airfields
War has been inevitable ever since the killing of Nasrallah. At that point the only thing that could have stopped the all out war was isisrael stopping all offensive actions and ending the genocide and blockade. After that point it was clear that isisrael was going to keep pushing untill every one was dead on one side or the other.
Whoever leaked this is a bigger hero than Edward Snowden.
They need to get the hell out of that country before the feds go after them.
Well, whoever leaked this was likely making stuff up. I've managed to actually read and see the second batch of leaked documents firsthand, and they are likely fake. I've updated the initial comment. Thank goodness, the attack plan was crazy.
The leaker is a goddamn hero,Jesus Christ
Unless it's some state department person,in which case
Could be a self interested state department ghoul scared of losing their job if war breaks out or if Trump wins the "election", could be someone with a conscience. We just do not know their motivations. In any case, preventing a full scale war from breaking out is a good thing.
preventing a full scale war from breaking out
Its delaying war at best. isisrael will strike back.
They are not a rational actor. They have the cultural equivalence of rabies. A rational nation would look at the state of their war in Gaza and think "this isn't working I need to try something else to fix this" not "I'm going to try the same thing against a better armed and organized enemy that I cant surround that has more men and better supply lines." Now that the war against Hezbollah is proving to be a failure they have even more drive to hit Iran.
I'm not surprised these plans leaked. There are so many reasons to not want a war with Iran, and so many stakeholders who would want to avoid it. I wouldn't be surprised if the state department itself arranged to have it leaked so that they could get credit for the planning, but then not actually have it happen. Absolutely bananas that this was even a possibility.
It still is a possibility
Hopefully the USA recalculate and Israel go forward with a much smaller attack.
Another question I have in mind (not that you have to answer it, I am just openly speculating), what has been Iran's response to all of this? How are they factoring in all of this, along with their promise of a new "surprise" weapon/system they have in store for the entity should they attack?
The suprise weapon is likely a satellite weapon like Russia already has, or a non nuclear ElectroMagnetic Pulse (EMP) weapon. When Brigadier General Ebrahim Rostami mentioned Iran's suprise weapon, it was in the context of Iran's missile forces carrying out simulated exercises striking Israel's Dimona reactor. To me that would suggest some kind of EMP weapon, to take out Israel's electricity generation capacity. A ballistic missile armed with an EMP warhead could fit the bill.
How has Iran been reacting? By trying to establish deterrence using its ballistic missile capabilities. An attack on Israel using over a thousand ballistic missiles could be devastating. Imagine the attack aimed at Nevatim were 40 missiles likely got through, and imagine that attack being aimed at a soft target such as a power plant, water or sanitation infrastructure, oil infrastructure, etc. And imagine a dozen targets are hit in this manner. It would be devastating.
Would an Iranian response in that manner basically kill Israel as a viable state? I imagine living in a non functional city,that is constantly under threat of being attacked with missiles,with none of the resilience that the populations you bombed had would lead to a mass migration, probably either by boat or through comprador Arab states like Jordan to get to an airport and get out of dodge. Is that a reasonable assumption?
Yeah but Israel also has deterrence to try stop Iran from conducting such a response/attack, in the nuclear deterrent. The initial leaked documents mentioned nuclear armed Jericho II Medium Range Ballistic Missiles (MRBMs) being dispersed in a defensive manner from October 1st onwards. Then there's the Jericho III Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile (ICBM), which was calculated by a US congressional review in 2004 to have a potential range (when on a depressed trajectory and with a smaller warhead, or warheads as it's MIRV capable) of over 11 000km, enough to strike most of mainland North America.
After a successful missile test launch conducted in early 2008, Israeli weapons expert General Itzhak Ben-Israel, former chairman of the Israeli Space Agency at the Ministry of Science, said "Everybody can do the mathematics... we can reach with a rocket engine to every point in the world"
Well,in that case only the US could finally mop up whatever remains,soft coup the government and withdraw all it's assets, including the nukes
Or we all get cooked, figuratively and literally
Luckily for everyone that does not want to die in nuclear hellfire, the second batch of leaked documents are very likely fake. I've updated my initial post.
Ah,well,that's comforting?,I guess?
It's comforting that it's fake as it was a crazy attack plan, but Israel could still launch a large scale attack regardless. So we're still stuck in a similar situation of waiting to see exactly when and what Israel will strike, and what the Iranian response would be.
But yes, we should celebrate that that mad attack plan was likely fake.
Are you saying the icbms would be used on targets outside of Western Asia, while the MRBMs are intended for western asian targets?
Not necessarily, I'm just saying that Israel has the capability to strike almost anywhere in the world if they wanted to. A lot of people make the mistake of looking at the publicised range of Israeli ICBMs (around 4000-6000km) and then conclude that Israel does not have the capability to strike Oceana, South America or North America. That is likely an incorrect conclusion given what we know about Israeli missile tests, and statements from the US and Israel. And this isn't even mentioning the hypothesised Jericho IV.
The Jericho III ICBM could also be used over a shorter distance, with a larger warhead or more independent re-entry vehicles, and to impact the target with more energy/speed. More speed is also helpful in avoiding missile defences. However, the legitimate leaked documents only mentioned the Jericho II MRBMs and not the Jericho III ICBM
Do we have any idea about whether a potential EMP weapon could be used to immediately deter or disrupt israel's attack? In other words, is there any indication that this is a weapon that could be used in the middle of israel's initial strikes, or would it be saved for the days or weeks after?
Just going to say initially: the second batch of leaked documents are very likely fake, I've edited my initial post to state that.
An EMP weapon would fry the electronics of everything within range, but since the planned Israeli attack is to be carried out by aircraft. I can't see Iran trying to hit aeroplanes in the air with an EMP weapon. Non nuclear EMP weapons have a much smaller effective radius. So I think it's likely use could be as a response, if such a weapon exists.
they have some deals with russia about s-400 and su-35 and su-30 I think.yea they are far from confirmedThis deals are kind of a meme by now since Iran still has never received deliveries of these weapon systems years after it was said Russia is providing them
From what I've seen online, it mainly consists of "military analysts" and people like Scott Ritter trying to will them into existence. I haven't seen any actual evidence of such weapons deals.
This is really scary stuff. It feels so fucked up that israel can spend three weeks and counting, openly preparing their attack(s) on Iran, in addition to their defenses for the consequences of that attack (e.g., deploying one THAAD and asking daddy for more), and all anyone can do is wait.
As they have throughout the genocide and israel's continued escalation, the Resistance has shown incredible patience and restraint - some would say too much, but idk if i would or could say that.
At the very least, it sounds like the leaks have been complicating things for the entity, for example by reportedly delaying their attacks, and hopefully that buys the Resistance more time and opportunity to prepare for what follows.
Thankfully, the second batch of leaked documents is likely fake, see my update. But yes, Israel could still be planning a large scale attack and all we can do is wait.
this planned attack would mean all out war
This would align with what Israel was saying in the first leak, that they are planning for an immediate response from Iran. To me, an immediate response means no tit-for-tat measured responses, Iran will be expected to declare all-out war in the aftermath (at least that is what Israel expects).
Also, I feel like this is the kind of top secret information that simply never gets leaked, because the information is kept within such a tight circle and they have ways of tracking who leaks what I presume. My gut says the call was made at the Blinken / Austin level to let it “leak”.
The second batch of leaked documents are likely fake, see my updated comment. But yes, this is all still very concerning.
Yeah, this shit looks so fake. "Sources confirm" is like typical journospeak.
Looks like we're finding out today
That means this media campaign was a definite PsyOp.
I was thinking something similar
More in the vein of testing the waters,or muddying them for Iran and the Axis of Resistance